Josh VanMeter brings a well-rounded offensive approach to the Reds

by — August 27, 2019 in Hitting Analysis

An afterthought before this season began, Josh VanMeter is firmly in the conversation for the Reds’ future plans.

The power output in late 2018 and early 2019 drew the attention, and rightfully so. VanMeter had 22 career minor-league home runs before last season and hit 26 in the last two seasons, including 13 in the first two months of this year. That earned him a call-up in late May.

While he hasn’t hit homers at the same pace in the majors (5), VanMeter has impressed in other facets of his game at the plate en route to a 120 wRC+.

Plate Discipline

Knowing the strike zone is a huge facet of hitting, and it’s one that usually translates well from the minors to the majors. However, it’s not a skill not every hitter has. VanMeter showed strong plate discipline throughout his minor-league career, carrying a 10.1% walk rate and .344 on-base percentage. Now that he’s in the majors, we have access to more in-depth data on his plate discipline, and it’s impressive.

He has carried his strong plate discipline into the major leagues as the owner of a 10.8 BB% and .371 OBP. To put that in context, he has a 123 BB%+ — meaning his walk rate is 23% higher than league average — and a 112 OBP+.

VanMeter, as the walk rate demonstrates, is highly selective at the plate, swinging at 39.4% of pitches. That’s the 23rd lowest rate among all hitters with 150 or more plate appearances. League average is 47.0%. As Steve Mancuso wrote early in the season, swinging less usually translates to more offensive production. Selectivity means swinging at hittable pitches and laying off those that will result in weak contact or whiffs.

Also important is laying off pitches outside the strike zone. VanMeter’s walk rate (10.5%) shows this is a strength as well. This measurement depends on the tracking system. Statcast and Pitch Info have slightly different strike zones. Per Statcast, VanMeter has a 22.5% chase rate (O-Swing%), well below the league average of 28.2%. Pitch Info has VanMeter’s O-Swing% at 26.2%, again below league average (31.5%).

VanMeter has an average strikeout rate, but he doesn’t have much swing and miss to his game. His 8.9 SwStr% (whiffs on all pitches) is well below league average of 11.1%, and his whiff rate (whiffs on all swings) of 24.1% is below league average (25.5%), too.

If anything, he could be more aggressive within the strike zone. VanMeter’s Z-Swing% (swings on pitches in the zone) comes in at 55% with both the Pitch Info and Statcast systems. League average ranges between 67% and 69%. At look at the following graphic shows he could be a lot more aggressive on pitches in the heart of the plate:

Contact Quality

Being big and strong like Aaron Judge or Aristides Aquino often means hitting the ball harder. For those who aren’t as physically imposing, swinging at pitches that are easier to hit and laying off those that aren’t can make up the difference. In other words, a player who consistently waits for pitches over the heart of the plate will hit the ball harder. Joey Votto is the poster child for this.

VanMeter’s plate discipline helps him make the most of his swings. Here’s what VanMeter does when he offers at pitches in the zone:

VanMeter is averaging a 90.4 mph exit velocity on batted balls, well above the league average (88.2) and first among Reds hitters with at least 100 batted balls. A focus on elevating the ball has been a huge factor in VanMeter’s power breakout over the last year, as Doug Gray wrote about back in April. That shows up in his average launch angle (14.3 degrees), which is also well above league average (12.1).

This combination of a high exit velocity and launch angle, however, hasn’t led to the power numbers he put up in Louisville.

  • .266 xBA (league average: .247)
  • .414 xSLG (.413)
  • .338 wxOBA (.319)

His barrel numbers illustrate why the expected statistics don’t jump off the page. VanMeter has barreled only three balls this season, equating to 2.7% of the balls he’s put into play. That ranks 374th out of 441 hitters in baseball with 100 batted balls. Barrels are the “perfect” combination of exit velocity (98+ mph) and launch angle. They result in an xBA of at least .500 and an xSLG of at least 1.500. On VanMeter’s batted balls hit at 98 or more mph, his average launch angle falls to 11.4 degrees.

But VanMeter is hitting the ball hard and getting it into the air. That’s a huge part of the equation. He just needs to do those things in conjunction to get those expected statistics — and his actual ones — up. He’s shown he can punish a baseball when he barrels it up.

 

Batted Ball Profile

Players hit for more power when they pull the ball. Derek Dietrich showed this early in the season. This isn’t a new phenomenon, but here are the numbers to back that up:

  • Pull: 89.8 mph EV, .724 SLG, .354 ISO
  • Straightaway: 88.6 mph EV, .489 SLG, .169 ISO
  • Opposite: 85.0 mph EV, .526 SLG, .200 ISO

VanMeter has largely been a pull hitter in his career, hovering well over 40% in most seasons in the minors and sitting at 44.1% with the Reds (league average is 40.5%). That hasn’t been the source of his improved power numbers. As mentioned above, it’s been getting the ball in the air. Here are his fly-ball rates by year in the minors:

  • 2019: 42.2%
  • 2018: 40.9%
  • 2017: 35.5%
  • 2016: 34.7%
  • 2015: 26.6%

Getting the ball in the air hasn’t been a struggle for VanMeter in the majors. His 36.0% ground-ball rate is significantly below league average (42.9%). He’s hitting nearly as many line drives (29.7%) as fly balls (34.2%), however. Line drives are excellent — they just don’t result in as many homers. As the fly balls come, so should the dingers.

Platoon Splits

While injuries have forced VanMeter into everyday playing time of late, he has largely rode the pine against left-handed pitchers. Is he that bad against southpaws, though? For his minor-league career, he carried a .258/.335/.416 slash line (.751 OPS) against lefties. Not bad, but nothing to write home about.

Clearly, though, VanMeter isn’t the same hitter he was early in his professional career. Since the all-star break in 2018, he hit .314/.374/.618 against left-handed pitching in the minors in 399 plate appearances. He has been given virtually no chance to show what he can do against lefties at the big-league level, with only 18 plate appearances. The Reds need to get him more opportunities against southpaws the rest of the season. It’ll go a long way toward showing whether VanMeter is a future utility player who can mash righties or an everyday starter.

Conclusion

There’s a lot to like about VanMeter at the plate. He hits the ball hard, he’s started pulling the ball in the air more often, and he doesn’t chase bad pitches. Perhaps being more aggressive with pitches in the strike zone could help him barrel more balls moving forward. He’s only 24 years old, giving the Reds an interesting option moving forward if he continues to develop the way he has over the last calendar year. At the very least, he’s an ideal bench player with his versatility. It remains to be seen if the bat can make him something more, but the early returns are promising.

[Featured image: https://twitter.com/Reds/status/1146794057710133248]

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Matt Wilkes

Matt Wilkes got hooked on Reds baseball after attending his first game in Cinergy Field at 6 years old, and he hasn’t looked back. As a kid, he was often found imitating his favorite players — Ken Griffey Jr., Adam Dunn, Sean Casey, and Austin Kearns — in the backyard. When he finally went inside, he was leading the Reds to 162-0 seasons in MVP Baseball 2005 or keeping stats for whatever game was on TV. He started writing about baseball in 2014 and has become fascinated by analytics and all the new data in the game. Matt is also a graduate of The Ohio State University and currently lives in Chicago. Follow him on Twitter at @_MattWilkes.

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