RC+ Preview: Luis Castillo faces former team as Reds go for 2 in a row

Is one game a winning streak? The Reds (61-69) put together a nice game last night, with hitting, starting pitching and strong relief pitching when needed. Let’s see if they can do it again. Luis Castillo takes the mound against his old team.

In case you missed our earlier blog posts. Jose Peraza got optioned to AAA and that move means both less and more than you probably think. One of the players who has made Peraza expendable is Josh VanMeter, who has shown a variety of qualities while with the Reds. Aristides Aquino was named Player of the Year in his AAA league. Finally, we penned a thank you to our patrons and asked for others to consider supporting our writers. You can get your name listed on our sidebar honor roll with the right contribution.

Pitching Matchup

Luis Castillo makes start number 27 of the season. By walking a total of five batters in his last seven starts, Castillo has worked his walk-rate down below 10%.  He’s in the top 10% of the league in fastball velocity and suppressing exit velocity. His xwOBA is in the top 15%.

Caleb Smith has made 21 starts this year, none against the Reds. He’s got a few stats worth highlighting. His swinging strike and strikeout rates are high. In fact, he has a higher strikeout rate than Luis Castillo. One big difference is that Smith is an **extreme** fly ball pitcher. That works better than average in his large ballpark.

Reds Lineup

Nick Senzel is leading off and Josh VanMeter isn’t starting, so you know the Reds are facing a left-handed pitcher. Joey Votto returns to the Reds lineup after sitting out since Aug. 14 with a balky back. Phil Ervin bats fifth against a lefty. Freddy Galvis, who has hit well (.404/.420/.702!) since joining the Reds., bats 8th. Superman still in the clean up spot. Tucker Barnhart gets a night off as Curt Casali gets a start.

[Graphics: Baseball Savant]

Marlins Lineup

[Graphics: Baseball Savant]