RC+ Preview: Reds vs. Cubs

The Reds (54-59) have slipped to 8 games behind the first-place Cubs and badly need a win tonight to regain the ground they lost in last night’s beating. Trevor Bauer pitches for the Reds against Yu Darvish in an outstanding matchup of pitchers with great arsenals.

Roster Move

If you haven’t already seen the news, the Reds DFA’d reliever David Hernandez this afternoon and called up RHP Sal Romano. Hernandez has had a string of awful appearances, following a spectacular month of June. Relievers are inconsistent. Over the course of a season, David Hernandez is an average major league reliever. He was last year, he was earlier this year and he is now.

You can be fooled by ERA, particularly with relievers. Hernandez had an ERA of 2.53 last year. But his xFIP was 4.12, just a smidgen apart from the MLB reliever average of 4.13. This year, Hernandez’s ERA is 8.02, but his xFIP is 4.53. The MLB xFIP is currently 4.56. Hernandez was average last year and average this year. That’s why it was dumb for certain Reds television play-by-play broadcasters to over-hype Hernandez when he was going well. You would have thought Hernandez had become Mariano Rivera. He was still David Hernandez.

Moral of the story. Using ERA to analyze pitchers, particularly relievers, makes you really prone to being wrong about whatever you’re saying. You already know that if you read this a few weeks ago.

Pitching Matchup

Trevor Bauer is making his second start for the Reds. In Bauer’s first start he wasn’t sharp and also was victimized by a bunch of cheap hits by Atlanta.  Our scouting report on Bauer after the trade talks about his pitches and background. Giving the Reds a great chance to win games like this is why the Reds traded with Cleveland for Bauer. Watch tonight to see if he has better command of his fastball.

Bauer has started three games against the Cubs, twice last year, and allowed only one run total.

Yu Darvish is a similar pitcher to Bauer. They both have big fastballs and a bunch of other pitches. Their statistics this season are closely matched. Darvish has given up more home runs than his fly ball rate would indicate. He has a higher strikeout rate than Bauer although both pitchers are well above average in that statistic. Darvish induces plenty of swinging strikes.

Here is what Brooks Baseball says about Darvish’s vast portfolio: “In 2019, he has relied primarily on his Slider (85 mph) and Four-seam Fastball (94 mph), also mixing in a Sinker (95 mph). He also rarely throws a Curve (76 mph), Change (91 mph), Cutter (91 mph), Splitter (88 mph) and Slow Curve (64 mph).”

The Reds faced Darvish at Wrigley Field three weeks ago. Darvish shut them out over six innings, allowing two hits and no walks. He struck out seven.

Reds Lineup and Stats

David Bell goes with his LH-heavy lineup tonight, starting Jesse Winker in LF. Winker leads off. Josh VanMeter plays 2B and bats fourth. Aristides Aquino, fresh off his offensive and defensive Superman performance last night bats fifth.

Jose Peraza plays SS. He needs to do better in the field than he did last night. Peraza has one home run in his past 140 plate appearances, dating to May 28. He has no walks since June 4, a span of 130 PA. As we wrote back in May, his weak offensive performance is no surprise. He did hit four balls right on the nose last night, each having a greater than 50% chance of being a hit with only a single to show for it. Hopefully he’ll have better luck tonight.

[Graphics: Baseball Savant]

Cubs Lineup and Stats

Joe Maddon has Kyle Schwarber From Middletown™ in the Cubs lineup tonight, batting behind Ian Happ From The University Of Cincinnati™.