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Can we agree to forget about last weekend? We’ll all be happier. Promise.
The Reds haven’t played Miami since the second week of the season, when they swept three games from the Marlins at GABP outscoring them 21-1. Tonight starts a 4-game rematch in Florida. The Marlins (47-82) have a lousy record and are just 6-17 in August. But they did just take two games from the Phillies, including scoring 19 runs in one of them.
The Reds (60-69) need to get past … um … recent events … and get back to playing good baseball, starting with tightening up the defense. It’s worth pointing out that they’re playing without their regular first baseman and one of their outfielders. And in recent days, they were without their centerfielder. That’s forced David Bell to play several players in their not-best positions.
It would be nice to get things moving in the right direction in Miami with a series in St. Louis (#spoiler) looming on the agenda.
Pitching Matchup
This pitching matchup looks terrific. Sonny Gray is putting together his best season as a major league pitcher. He’s given up one earned run in his last four starts. He has struck out 34 batters in 24 IP.
Pablo Lopez is also having an excellent season. The 23-year-old was in the Marlins Opening Day rotation and made 14 starts through June, including one against the Reds in April. Lopez was sidelined with a shoulder strain for several weeks. He’s made a few rehab starts but this is his first game back since going on the IL.
Gray has a great fastball, slider and curveball. Chad Dotson has a terrific new article in Cincinnati Magazine about Gray’s season. Matt Wilkes wrote recently about Gray’s outstanding pitch spin rates and I wrote about Gray’s background and early success in June.
Pablo Lopez has a nice fastball and strikeout rate. His walk rate is well below league average and he induces a better-than-average amount of ground balls. His FIP, xFIP and SIERA all point to a better-than-average starting pitcher. His xwOBA is one of the best in MLB, almost as good as Sonny Gray’s.
Reds Lineup
Nick Senzel is back in the lineup, but batting 8th. In the last 30 days, Senzel has hit .215/.240/.333 and walked in only 2% of his plate appearances. He’s clearly struggling, maybe with an underlying injury.
Josh VanMeter bats leadoff again against a RHP, with Freddy Galvis batting second. Derek Dietrich, in for platoon splits, has Joey Votto’s first base spot. Dietrich had his first hit in more than 20 plate appearances yesterday. He hasn’t hit a home run since July 19.
[Graphics: Baseball Savant]
Marlins Lineup
[Graphics: Baseball Savant]
