RC+ Preview: Save us Trevor Bauer, save us!

Unusual game time: 4:05 p.m.

The Reds (56-62) have dropped three games in a row and look toward new acquisition Trevor Bauer to help stop the skid. It won’t be an easy task for the team as they face Nats ace Stephen Strasburg. After this afternoon’s game, the Reds return home for a 7-game home stand starting with four against the St. Louis Cardinals.

Daily Aristides Fix

Jay Jaffe wrote about Reds slugger Aristides Aquino this morning for FanGraphs. Jaffe, one of the top baseball analysts, takes a look at Aquino past, present and future. He’s got plenty of receipts, too, with video and stats. Here’s one paragraph:

“Aquino’s not just wall-scraping his way onto this list, either. Just one of his eight homers (his first off Hendricks) was estimated to travel less than 373 feet; five of his eight were projected for 404 feet or more, with three for 445 feet or more, capped by his 452-footer off Maples. His average home run distance of 410 feet puts him in the 84th percentile of all players with at least eight homers, and he’s one of just 22 with at least three homers of 445 feet or longer; Ronald Acuña Jr. leads with seven, followed by Josh Bell with six, and Alonso, Story, Bryce Harper, Jorge Soler, and Mike Trout with five — all in considerably more playing time. Aquino’s 445-footer off Hamels featured an exit velocity of 118.3 mph, matching Alonso’s April 11 homer off the Braves’ Jonny Venters for the fastest of the year; it’s the ninth-fastest of the Statcast era, with Giancarlo Stanton (121.7 mph on August 9, 2018) the record holder and Alonso, Aaron Judge, and Gary Sanchez the only other players to reach 118 mph at least once. That’s good company.”

Satisfy your Aristides craving and go read the whole thing.

Pitching Matchup

Trevor Bauer is making his third start for the Reds. He’s coming off a strong performance against the Cubs. Bauer held them to three hits, two walks and one run. He struck out 11 over seven innings.

Stephen Strasburg is in his tenth season pitching for the Nationals. He’s made 230 starts since he debuted. Strasburg has FIP and xFIP below 3.00 and his career SIERA is 3.03. He’s been a great pitcher for a long time. 

This year has been no different. He is in the top 10 in the major leagues in xFIP, SIERA, K%-BB%, xBA, xSLG and xwOBA. He ranks fourth in that last category, behind only teammate Max Schurzer, Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole. Strasburg is next. To make matters worse, over his career he’s been better at home, better in day games and better in the second half of seasons.

From Brooks Baseball: In 2019, Strasburg has relied primarily on his four-seam fastball (94 mph) and curve (81 mph), also mixing in a change (88 mph) and sinker using a two-seam fastball grip (94mph).

Reds Lineup and Stats

[Graphics: Baseball Savant]

Nats Lineup and Juan Soto

Nats keep the pedal jammed to the floor. This is the toughest lineup of the three games. Save us, Trevor Bauer.

[Graphics: Baseball Savant]