RC+ Recap: Babe Lorenzen “has win all over him”

RC+ Recap: Babe Lorenzen “has win all over him”

Reds broadcaster Chris Welsh explained why he like David Bell’s move so much. “He has win all over him,” Welsh said about Michael Lorenzen.

Michael “Babe” Lorenzen had lined a double [video] down the left field line with one out, driving in Jose Peraza with the game winning run. It completed a remarkable week of accomplishments for the Reds pitcher, centerfielder and now, pinch hitter.

“I love the game so much,” said Michael Lorenzen after the game. “Why wouldn’t I give it everything that I have. I’m blown away by the belief that David Bell has in me to put me in that situation.”

“Even if he hadn’t got a hit, it would have been a great at bat,” said Bell after the game.

The Reds 9th inning rally began with 1-out singles by Jose Peraza and Phillip Ervin. When Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo brought in a left-handed pitcher to face Reds lead-off hitter Josh VanMeter, Bell countered with asking Lorenzen to pinch hit. Lorenzen worked a 9-pitch AB before pulling a 108.1 mph line drive for a hit.

The Reds staved off a 3-game sweep by the Arizona Diamondbacks with runs in the final two innings.

Prior to the 9th inning, Eugenio Suarez led was the Reds offense, blasting his 43rd and 44th home runs. Mike Trout and Pete Alonso lead MLB with 45. Christian Yelich and Cody Bellinger also have 44. Nice Suarez graphic by Reds twitter:

Joey Votto had two hits. The Reds didn’t draw a walk.

Anthony DeSclafani pitched well, going 6 innings and 91 pitches. He gave up three hits and three walks. One of the three runs that scored was on an error by Suarez in taking a double play peg from Freddy Galvis. DeSclafani threw his four-seam fastball 31 times for an average of 94.6 mph.

Amir Garrett pitched a shutout 7th inning, walked a batter and threw a wild pitch. Robert Stephenson worked around a walk in his 8th inning, striking out three. He induced 5 swings-and-misses out of his 19 pitches. Stephenson has become a reliable relief pitcher and a strong bullpen candidate for next season. Raisel Iglesias pitched the 9th, gave up a walk (all three relievers walked a batter) but worked a double play to get out of the inning.

Jose Iglesias was caught stealing for the 6th time this season, against 5 successes. The Reds as a team have 66 SB with 34 CS. That’s a 66% success rate. When runners are caught stealing, the team loses both a base runner and an out. The numbers show that 75% is the threshold for the risk being worth it, and that’s just the break-even point. In an era when home runs drive so much of the offense, the 75% number should probably be higher. Contrast the Reds record on stealing bases with the Diamondbacks who have stolen 79 and been caught only 13 times.

Reds Most Valuable Players

  • Eugenio Suarez (.510 WPA) win probability added
  • Michael Lorenzen (.292 WPA) as a hitter
  • Raisel Iglesias (.138 WPA)

Reds Most Valuable Hit

  • Eugenio Suarez (.320 WPA) 8th inning home run
  • Michael Lorenzen (.292 WPA) 9th inning single

Hardest-Hit Balls

  • Michael Lorenzen (108.1 mph) single
  • Brian O’Grady (107.3 mph) single
  • Derek Dietrich (104.9 mph) line out
  • Eugenio Suarez (104.3 mph) force out
  • Joey Votto (104.0 mph) ground out

Highest Pitch Velocities by Pitcher

  • Raisel Iglesias (96.8 mph)
  • Robert Stephenson (96.2 mph)
  • Anthony DeSclafani (96.1 mph)
  • Amir Garrett (95.0 mph)

Links

[Featured image: https://twitter.com/Reds/status/1169432857061838849]

Steve Mancuso

Steve Mancuso is a lifelong Reds fan who grew up during the Big Red Machine era. He’s been writing about the Reds for more than ten years. Steve’s fondest memories about the Reds include attending a couple 1975 World Series games, being at Homer Bailey’s second no-hitter and going nuts for Jay Bruce at Clinchmas. Steve was also at all three games of the 2012 NLDS, but it’s too soon to talk about that.