RC+ Recap: Smells Like a Hanging Slider

RC+ Recap: Smells Like a Hanging Slider

The Reds were facing a rookie pitcher making his fifth career start, so naturally they collected only one run in six innings against Justus Sheffield. To be fair, they did touch him up for seven hits but the double play ball was out to get them tonight, preventing any meaningful sequencing . They were fortunate to get one run when a two-out liner to right-field by Phillip Ervin was misplayed in the corner by Kyle Lewis (Mariners first round draft pick in 2016), who was making his major league debut. With Ervin able to get to third base, Freddy Galvis knocked him home with a well struck single, a welcome sight for Freddy who has been on the struggle bus in a big way.

Trevor Bauer had a no-hitter in the fifth but allowed the aforementioned Kyle Lewis to collect his first hit and home run on the same swing, tying the game at 1. Dylan Moore followed suit in the 6th inning to break the tie. Bauer’s final line was 6.1IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 8 SO, 3 BB. Pretty good considering how poorly some of Bauer’s previous starts have gone, but still left something to be desired with three walks (although that is something Reds fans will have to get used to with Bauer) and two home runs.

Brian O’Grady said “anything you can do I can do better” to Mr. Lewis with his first career home run in the seventh following a two-out Barnhart walk, giving the Reds a 3-2 lead. Credit to David Bell who pinch hit for leadoff hitter Alex Blandino and put O’Grady in a good spot to succeed. O’Grady’s dinger (107.1 mph) was a bit harder hit than Lewis’ (106.2mph), went the exact same distance (426 feet) and had a higher hit probability (96% to 80%). It was a good swing on a fastball just beneath the zone.

 

With a one-run lead, the Reds turned to Michael Lorenzen and Amir Garrett to hold on to it. After Lorenzen allowed a two-out walk in the 8th, Garrett came on and gave up a two-run shot to Kyle Seager, his second homer conceded to a lefty this year. Garrett threw nothing but sliders to Seager the entire at-bat, and the 7th pitch with a full count was a hanger that Seager did not miss. Game over (because of course the Reds went quietly in the 9th).

Reds Most Valuable Players

  • Brian O’Grady (.420 WPA) Win Probability Added
  • Michael Lorenzen (.180 WPA)

Reds Most Valuable Hit

  • Brian O’Grady (.420 WPA) 2-run homer

Reds Least Valuable Players

  • Amir Garrett (-.630 WPA)
  • Jose Iglesias (-.270 WPA)
  • Tucker Barnhart (-.100 WPA)

Hardest-Hit Balls

  • Brian O’Grady (107.1 mph) home run
  • Aristedes Aquino (104.2 mph) single
  • Josh VanMeter (103.3 mph) line out
  • Eugenio Suarez (103.2 mph) ground out
  • Aristedes Aquino (103.1 mph) single

Unluckiest Out of the Day

  • Freddy Galvis (60%hit probability) 98.1 mph GIDP

Highest Pitch Velocities by Pitcher

  • Michael Lorenzen (98.6 mph)
  • Amir Garrett (96.8 mph)
  • Trevor Bauer (96.1 mph)

Links

[featured image: https://twitter.com/Reds/status/1152247780070567940]

Matt Habel

Matthew Habel was born and mostly raised in Cincinnati and was always a Reds fan growing up. Ironically, he did not become die-hard until moving to Pittsburgh after college and experiencing the 2013 Wild Card game behind enemy lines. While the "Cueto Game" is one of the worst sports moments of his life, he became enamored with the analytics side of the game after reading Big Data Baseball and watching the Pirates organization end their postseason drought. He started writing for Redleg Nation in 2017 and has enjoyed continuously learning more about the sport. He currently lives in Portland, Oregon where he loves exploring the great outdoors. Find him on Twitter @MattadorHeyBull