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There’s a lot to like when it comes to Tejay Antone. He’s a great pitcher and a true competitor on the diamond. On a personal note, his story of reinventing himself after Tommy John surgery is pretty inspiring. He also seems like an all around great guy. Tejay, if you ever read this, once COVID is behind us, I’d love to grab coffee with you sometime. I’ll buy.
Over the last year, there has been discussion over Antone’s role for the Cincinnati Reds. He could be a long reliever. He could be a shut down closer. He could be a starting pitcher. No matter what your opinion is, the Reds have a very good problem on their hands, and fans can be excited about what Antone brings to this team. Instead of trying to determine his optimal role, let’s explore his pitch mix to see if we can figure out what has made him so effective.
Overall Performance
Since he’s only thrown a few innings during the 2021 season, let’s use 2020 data on Antone to ensure a larger sample size.
Wow. There is a lot to like here, and it is clear why Antone achieved the success he did during the pandemic-shortened season. Let’s first look at his sheer dominance of hitters. Antone’s strike out percentage is in the 86th percentile, and his whiff rate is in the 87th percentile. In short, Tejay Antone is excellent at limiting any contact against his pitches.
Antone’s whiff and strikeout stats are enabled by the quality of his pitches. His fastball, for example, has a velocity and spin rate in the 86th and 98th percentile respectively. He also has a curveball spin rate in the 95th percentile. For those of you who are unfamiliar with spin rate, it is something covered often here. Essentially, there is a plethora of research indicating pitcher dominance has more to do with the number of rotations a baseball makes, in addition to the velocity of the pitch. When you combine Antone’s elite spin rate and his elite fastball velocity, the result is a dominating pitcher.
In spite of all these strengths, there are weaknesses in Antone’s game. With a base on balls percentage in the 23rd percentile, Antone walks too many hitters. While his average exit velocity is very good, the max exit velocity on his pitches is in the 25th percentile. In simpler terms, hitters sometimes hit his pitches very hard. This can be dangerous in the small confines of Great American Ball Park.
Altogether, there is a lot to be excited about with Tejay Antone. So much so, that I don’t think I’m quite done writing about him yet. Let’s examine his pitch mix a bit further and appreciate what he has been able to contribute to the 2021 campaign.
Sink or Swim
Antone’s primary pitch is the sinker. So far, he has thrown it almost 40% of the time. The primary purpose of the sinker is not necessarily to strike the batter out. Rather, a pitcher throws a sinker when he is hoping to induce weak contact. When a runner is on first, many pitchers turn to a sinker in hopes of creating a ground ball double play.
So how has Antone’s sinker performed during the 2021 year? Let’s look at the data (through 4/20/21):
On-the-field results have been very positive, but there is something strange here. While opponents batting average against his sinker is a mere .111, the expected batting average is .309. Why the difference? As noted above, the sinker is designed to induce weak contact, typically in the form of a groundout. The way hitters are batting against this pitch typically results in more offensive production. There is a luck element here, but these results are also impacted by the shifted defense. Here’s an example of a hard-hit ball (103.8 mph) off Antone’s sinker by Eddie Rosario.
No Trouble with the Curve
The curveball in general is difficult to hit. Tejay Antone throws it 30.6% of the time and it has achieved exceptional results.
I’m sorry, but I have to pick up my jaw off the floor. Look at that spin rate! That’s more than elite. That’s one of the best in all of baseball. Let’s put this spin rate in context by comparing it to some of the elite starting pitchers playing today.
Tejay Antone’s curve spin rate puts him in excellent company. Here he uses it against a left-handed batter.
Antone’s curve also works against right-handed hitters.
It’s no wonder that he’s had such good results with this pitch. Hitters are batting a mere .100 against it, and the expected batting average is not much higher. Antone’s curveball also has a high whiff%, at 41.2%. Essentially, hitters are not putting his curveball in play, and when they do, it tends to be very weak contact.
Sliding Right By
As difficult as a curveball is to hit, some say the slider is even trickier. Let’s see how Antone’s slider holds up.
Another powerful weapon in Antone’s arsenal, his slider has achieved very good results. Batters this season have yet to get a hit off this pitch, and their expected batting average isn’t much better. Antone’s slider also boasts an elite whiff% of 41.7%. This swing and miss rate comes from his excellent spin rate. Here he uses the slider to strike out the Giants Austin Slater.
The one advanced metric that stands out in a negative way is the expected slugging. An expected slugging of .482 indicates that while hitters may not make contact very often against Antone’s slider, when they do make contact, they hit it very hard. Over the course of a full season, this could create some problems for Antone. Overall, though, Tejay has been able to use the slider effectively, and it remains a solid option for striking hitters out.
Let’s continue the exercises of comparing his spin rate against other pitchers’ sliders in the league.
Once again, Antone finds himself in a great company. It’s easy to see why he has performed so strongly this season and last season.
Conclusion
Cincinnati is excited about the player they have in Tejay Antone and they should be. He’s a talented pitcher and many of his pitches behave in similar ways as the top pitchers in the game. All of this has translated into results on the field. From all observations, he also seems like a super great guy. The question Reds fans are asking isn’t if he will contribute to a winning team, but rather what role Antone will have on a winning team. When examining his pitch mix, there is evidence that he can be a solidly above average starter, and assuming his arm can handle the stress, that’s where I would like him to be. He is a talented pitcher and I’d prefer for him to be given more innings rather than less. However the Reds decide to use him, let’s enjoy his time on the mound, as he continues to dominate opposing hitters.
Photo: Rick Ulreich (Icon Sportswire)
