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During the offseason that followed Cincinnati’s disappointing 2019 campaign, the Reds made a flurry of moves that excited the team’s fans. It was great to see recognized players like Mike Moustakas and Nick Castellanos would be wearing the Cincinnati “C” and was an indication that the Reds were here to contend for the playoffs. Of all the signings that happened during that glorious offseason, one excited me more than any other.
Shogo Akiyama.
I used to live in Tokyo, Japan, so seeing my favorite team sign their first Japanese player was thrilling and spoke to me on personal and historic levels. Due to the pandemic shortened 2020 season as well as Shogo’s recent stint on the injured list, Reds fans have had fairly limited exposure to the Japanese star. With his return to the team approaching, let’s take a look at his numbers to see what level of production we can expect from him.
Shogo’s Career in Japan
Let’s begin this exercise by looking at Shogo’s career stats during his 9 year career with the NPB in Japan.
| BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| 0.301 | 0.376 | 0.454 | 0.829 |
Those numbers are solid and show why he’s such a popular player in Japan. It also tells us a little bit about Shogo. Overall, he seems to have a good hit tool and above average on base skills. He’s demonstrated a bit of power in Japan, but it is very typical for power numbers to drop when making the jump to MLB.
Let’s take a deeper look by examining Shogo’s OPS. For those unfamiliar, OPS is created by adding a hitter’s on base percentage and slugging percentage and is a representation of power alongside on base skills. For Shogo, his OPS took a significant jump during his age 27-30 seasons.
This spike in OPS is very typical of professional baseball players, as they reach a sweet spot of experience and physical ability. Although there are exceptions, it is also typical to see these numbers decline as hitters move into their 30s. While we will not know for sure what would have been posted had Shogo played 2020 in Japan, his OPS was beginning a downward trajectory after showing consistent increase over the previous three seasons.
The Tale of Two Seasons
Shogo did not post a very good stat line, but his season numbers are dramatically suppressed by a poor start to the 2020 season. A slow start for Shogo is to be expected. Not only is he playing ball in a new country and adjusting to new pitchers, but he’s also having to play during the middle of a global pandemic that dramatically impacted the rhythm of veteran players.
| AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
| July | 0.211 | 0.286 | 0.263 | 0.549 |
| August | 0.192 | 0.28 | 0.247 | 0.527 |
| September | 0.317 | 0.456 | 0.365 | 0.821 |
I can’t sugarcoat Shogo’s first half. It was bad. However, he turned it around during the month of September and was a huge contributor to the Reds winning streak that brought them to the postseason.
A few things jump out from this data. First is that it is unreasonable to expect Shogo to repeat his September numbers over the course of a whole season, as these were assisted by a high and unsustainable BABIP (.444 after Sept. 7). Second, in spite of his high batting average and on base percentage, Shogo was still not hitting for power. During the month of September, Shogo’s isolated power (Slugging-Batting Average) was a paltry .048.
I’m going to be unfair for a moment and include Shogo’s 2020 season on the previous OPS graph. It’s a very unfair comparison, as we are comparing hitting metrics across different leagues. Even with this asterisk, there is a bit to concern fans.
Once Shogo started playing in the United States, his power numbers completely evaporated, continuing his downward trajectory of OPS. This disappearance of power is reflected in his 2020 MLB Percentile Rankings.
This chart, which takes the entire season into account, paints a very interesting picture of Shogo and indicates why his hitting stats ended up the way that they did. On a positive note, Shogo was very good at putting the ball in play. Even with the slow start to the season, Shogo ended up in the 84th percentile for whiff% and 71st percentile for K%. You can’t get on base if you strike out, and Shogo did a great job of not striking out. He also boasted a strong walk rate, indicating his plate discipline skills are transferring to the MLB.
The picture turns more dour when we check his power metrics. By all accounts, Shogo was not hitting the ball hard. He was one of the worst hitters at barreling the ball, and this directly contributed to his lack of power. In the age where defenses are shifting to where batters tend to hit the ball, the ability to hit hard has become critical. Small sample size asterisks apply here, but Shogo has so far shown nothing to calm concerns regarding his power.
Conclusion
So which Shogo is going to show up in 2021? Most likely, the real Shogo Akiyama is somewhere between his strong September and his slow start. He has a decent hit tool, great eye and absolutely no power at all. There’s value in a player like that, provided that Reds aren’t leaning on him to hit the ball into the stands.
Whichever version of Shogo players in 2021, I’m thrilled to be able to watch him this year. Baseball is a game of heart, nostalgia and emotion, and watching Shogo is a reminder for me of my childhood in Japan. As fans are returning to the stands, he is still the player I am most excited to watch in person. I’m very happy that he chose to play in Cincinnati, and I’m confident in his ability to contribute to a winning Reds team.
(Photo by Rick Ulreich/Icon Sportswire)
