by Matt Wilkes

RC+ Preview: Reds at Braves (August 4) – A Sonny Day in Atlanta

After a mistake-filled loss on Saturday night, the Reds (51-58) will hope the Son-shine of a day game brings better results today in the series finale against the Braves.

Feel free to discuss the game in the comments as it goes on. We’ll be around to chat!

Pitching Matchup

Today’s game presents an interesting matchup between pitchers with similar ERAs but vastly different peripheral numbers. Sonny Gray has pitched up to his 77 ERA- (33% lower than league average ERA) because he has a high strikeout rate, average walk rate, and high ground ball rate. He can reasonably expect to see his ERA stay the same if he continues to pitch the same way.

Julio Teheran, on the other hand, has a 76 ERA- against the odds. He has a 102 FIP- (2% worse than league average) and 117 xFIP- (17% worse than league average) because of a below average strikeout rate, horrible walk rate, and below average groundball rate.

It’s a textbook example of why ERA can be misleading. On paper, Teheran and the Braves seem to have the slight edge. But Gray has been the far better pitcher in reality.

Batting Order

No Freddie Freeman in the lineup for the Braves today.

[Graphic: Baseball Press]

Braves Hitter Stats

Reds Hitter Stats

[Graphics: Baseball Savant]

Matt Wilkes got hooked on Reds baseball after attending his first game in Cinergy Field at 6 years old, and he hasn’t looked back. As a kid, he was often found imitating his favorite players — Ken Griffey Jr., Adam Dunn, Sean Casey, and Austin Kearns — in the backyard. When he finally went inside, he was leading the Reds to 162-0 seasons in MVP Baseball 2005 or keeping stats for whatever game was on TV. He started writing about baseball in 2014 and has become fascinated by analytics and all the new data in the game. Matt is also a graduate of The Ohio State University and currently lives in Columbus. Follow him on Twitter at @_MattWilkes.

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R Smith
R Smith
1 year ago

Sonny Gray (8) sac bunts this year.