RC+ Preview: Reds vs. LA Angels – Mike Trout comes to Cincinnati

by — August 5, 2019 in Game/Series Preview

The Atlanta series sure was a rollercoaster of emotions. I think we’d have settled for a split last Thursday afternoon. The Braves are a first-place team that has loaded up big time as the season has progressed and the Reds stood toe-to-toe. Atlanta threw punches and the Reds hit right back. Six games under .500 and 7.5 games out of first place. 3.5 games behind the sliding Brewers.

The scene shifts back to Great American Ball Park for a 6-game home stand. It’s tempting to look ahead to the four games against the first-place Cubbies. But the first two games vs. the LA Angels (56-57) count, too. Plus you get to see the best player in the game up close.

Mike Trout is a wonder. We don’t appreciate him fully because he plays three time zones later most days. That’s a shame because he’s one of the best ever. He’s earned 71-72 WAR and is only 27 years old. By comparison, Joey Votto is 35 and has earned 56 WAR. Trout has won two A.L. MVP awards and should have won 3-4 others. He’s been hurt by the Angels being not too competitive while he’s played.

So put your anticipation of the Cubs on hold for 48 hours and enjoy the Mike Trout experience. Heck, tonight he faces Luis Castillo.

Pitching Matchup

Luis Castillo is slowly knocking down that BB% (11.1) that has inflated his SIERA and other ERA-projector stats above his ERA. He still sports a fantastic .275 xwOBA which means batters haven’t been squaring him up much. Castillo’s swinging strike and strikeout rate are top level. His fastball velocity (96.4 mph) is up almost a full mph over 2018, although still not up to what it was his debut season (97.6 mph).

Taylor Cole has made only five starts for the Angels this season. His strikeout rate is about league average but he walks a lot. He’s been lucky on home runs this year, given up none. Odds are the Reds will correct that tonight. Not much else stands out about Cole. He’s no young rookie, he’s 29.

Batting Order

The Reds aren’t using their normal platoon lineup (no Josh VanMeter). Jesse Winker and Joey Votto lead off. Aristides Aquino bats cleanup and is in RF. For some reason, Jose Iglesias is batting ahead of Nick Senzel. Handedness split doesn’t explain it. Senzel has an 89 to 87 edge in wRC+ and that gap becomes enormous (147 vs. 67) should a left-handed pitcher enter the game. And Iglesias has a career wRC+ of 77 against RHP. David Bell is way over-valuing Iglesias’ hitting. Jose Peraza plays 2B.

For the Angels, Mike Trout bats second. Kole Calhoun is a good hitter in the 3rd spot. Justin Upton missed most of the season and is slumping lately. Not a lot else too scary in the LA lineup. These aren’t the Dodgers.

[Graphic: Baseball Press]

Angels Hitting Stats

Reds Hitter Stats

[Graphics: Baseball Savant]

Tags:

Steve Mancuso

Steve Mancuso is a lifelong Reds fan who grew up during the Big Red Machine era. He’s been writing about the Reds for more than ten years. Steve’s fondest memories about the Reds include attending a couple 1975 World Series games, being at Homer Bailey’s second no-hitter and going nuts for Jay Bruce at Clinchmas. Steve was also at all three games of the 2012 NLDS, but it’s too soon to talk about that.

Subscribe to RC+ via Email

Get an email every time we publish a new post!

Reds Content Plus is a site for passionate fans of the Cincinnati Reds. Our staff of independent writers covers the performance of Reds players and the strategies of the Reds manager and front office. Our content builds on what you’ll find at other Reds fan sites. What separates RC+ is our use of (and explaining) advanced statistical measures. Whether it’s a sacrifice bunt, intentional walk, stolen base, bullpen use, pinch hitting or pulling the starting pitcher, we’ll dig into the numbers. If you want to support us, check out our Support Page.