RC+: Reds go for three in a row

by — August 28, 2019 in Game/Series Preview

Two games is definitely a winning streak. The Reds (62-69) have played two solid games in a row and look to make it three tonight in Miami. If it comes to a save situation, look for Michael Lorenzen tonight. Raisel Iglesias has pitched two nights in a row and Lorenzen was off last night. It’s been a second since Aristides Aquino has hit one out, so it’s time for that.

Pitching Matchup

Anthony DeSclafani continues to have a solid season for a #4 or #5 starter. He’s right around league average for qualified starters. His xwOBA and SIERA are a bit better than average. He’s got good strikeout and walk rates. He’s had bad luck with home runs. If he can keep the Marlins hitters in the park tonight (and the park dimensions help), he could put up a strong game.

Alcantara is one of those pitchers where you should ignore the ERA. He’s been lucky with home runs and BABIP so far. In fact, his xFIP and SIERA are the highest among any major league starting pitcher. That’s not something you’ll likely hear on tonight’s broadcast or read elsewhere. The reason? Look at how close his K% and BB% are. It’s the second-smallest gap in the majors. There’s no way to sustain an ERA that low when you pitch that way. That doesn’t mean tonight will be the reckoning, but if it is, it shouldn’t surprise you if you’re reading this.

Reds Lineup

Josh VanMeter leading off against RHP. Freddy Galvis (not Derek Dietrich) at 2B. Nick Senzel, who has had two great games in Miami, is in the lineup batting 6th. Votto back in.

[Graphics: Baseball Savant]

Marlins Lineup

Nope. Christian Yelich, Giancarlo Stanton, Marcel Ozuna and J.T. Realmuto still haven’t walked through the door.

[Graphics: Baseball Savant]

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Steve Mancuso

Steve Mancuso is a lifelong Reds fan who grew up during the Big Red Machine era. He’s been writing about the Reds for more than ten years. Steve’s fondest memories about the Reds include attending a couple 1975 World Series games, being at Homer Bailey’s second no-hitter and going nuts for Jay Bruce at Clinchmas. Steve was also at all three games of the 2012 NLDS, but it’s too soon to talk about that.

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