RC+ Preview: Let’s play two (again)

by — September 1, 2019 in Game/Series Preview

Let’s hope today goes better than yesterday for the Reds (63-72). Game one is at 1:05 p.m. and game two is at 7:05 p.m.

September Call-Ups

Teams are allowed to expand their active rosters on September 1. That’s today. Here comes the cavalry: RHP Matt Bowman, RHP Tyler Mahle, LHP Wandy Peralta, RHP Sal Romano and IF Alex Blandino. A bunch of bullpen help. Maybe Romano makes a start Wednesday. Alex Blandino with another RH bat off the bench.

Game #1 Pitching Matchup

This is Tyler Mahle’s first start since July 19. On July 22 he was put on the IL with a hamstring strain and then when activated placed on the AAA roster as Alex Wood took his place in the Reds rotation. Mahle made 3 starts (9 innings, 13 Ks, 3 BBs) for the Bats. His last start was against the Cardinals.

This deserves a longer post /note site content foreshadowing/ but Tyler Mahle has had a nice season with improvement across the board on stuff the pitcher controls. Strikeout rate up, walk rate way down, ground ball rate up, xFIP and SIERA way down. Those latter two all the more impressive given the run environment. Fastball velocity up. wOBA down, xwOBA down. Don’t get hung up on his ERA, which is a team stat (defense, relievers) and susceptible to luck swings.

This is Mikolas’s fourth start against the Reds this season. The Reds have done pretty well against him in the three previous games.

Game #1 Lineups

Same starting 8 as usual against a RHP. VanMeter leading off, Senzel batting 7th. Iglesias batting 8th. Freddy Galvis, after getting off to a hot start with the Reds, is 0-for-19 with one walk in the last five games. When looking at Galvis as a fit for next year, pay most attention to his career numbers, give a little more weight (but not too much) to this season, and give almost no weight to what he does in his short time with the Reds.

Same basic lineup for the Cardinals. Why not?

Game #2 Pitching Matchup

Good pitching matchup in the evening game. Castillo makes his fourth start against the Cardinals this year. His first two — one in Cincinnati, one in St. Louis — were strong. The most recent one, at GABP was the worst of his career, giving up 8 ER in 4.1 innings, with just 3 strikeouts. Castillo’s ERA is creeping up as expected, but it’s still great. Because he’s done better on BB (only 8 in his last 8 starts) Castillo’s FIP/SIERA numbers are falling.

Ponce de Leon is making his 8th start for the Cardinals, his first since July. He’s been in AAA in August. The Reds haven’t faced him yet this year. Good K%, not-so-good BB%. We’ll see if the Reds can be patient and draw a walk or two.

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Steve Mancuso

Steve Mancuso is a lifelong Reds fan who grew up during the Big Red Machine era. He’s been writing about the Reds for more than ten years. Steve’s fondest memories about the Reds include attending a couple 1975 World Series games, being at Homer Bailey’s second no-hitter and going nuts for Jay Bruce at Clinchmas. Steve was also at all three games of the 2012 NLDS, but it’s too soon to talk about that.

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