Mahle, Reds look to finish season by winning

by — September 29, 2019 in Game/Series Preview

With a win this afternoon in Pittsburgh, the Reds will finish 75-87. If you’re looking for positive omens, the last time the Reds finished 75-87 was 1989, the year before they went Wire-to-Wire. The Reds won’t be able to settle the season score with the Pirates — Pittsburgh leads the series 12-6 — but it would be nice to end the year beating them twice.

Remember the Brewers? They were just in Cincinnati and seemed unbeatable? Well, they’ve lost two games in Colorado and are one game behind the Cardinals in the NL Central race. Meanwhile, the Cardinals who swept four games in Wrigley last weekend, have lost two games to the walking-wounded Cubs in St. Louis. Baseball!

If you’re wondering about the odd start time (3:05 p.m) today, it’s because MLB now schedules every game, no matter the time zone, to start at the same moment. That way the regular season wraps up with all teams playing simultaneously. Not only does it add excitement, but it prevents teams on the west coast from knowing early results that could give them an edge of shaping their pitching staffs.

Pitching Matchup

Tyler Mahle turns 25 today. He gets the starting assignment instead of Trevor Bauer who was pulled because of illness. Mahle, pitching on short rest, gets another chance to end the season on a positive note after getting shelled by the Brewers on Wednesday. Somehow, Mahle hasn’t faced the Pirates since the first week of the season when he threw six shutout innings. The Reds lost that game because the offense was shutout over nine.

Mahle has pitched a lot better than his ERA indicates. His strikeout rate, walk rate and ground ball rate all took a big step in the right direction. Last night, Chris Welsh summed up quite well Mahle’s position with the Reds. Based on his pitching and development this year, he’s got the inside track on the #5 spot in the rotation, but that isn’t anywhere near guaranteed. Mahle would be bumped if the Reds decide to acquire another veteran SP.

Mahle remains heavily reliant on his fastball.

Reds Lineup

Having one of the worst batters in the league lead off in the final game is a dreary but apt indicator of how the year has gone for the Reds offense. Whether intentional or not, manager David Bell is throwing a spotlight on the need for the front office to do big things with the hitting this offseason.

I miss Jesse Winker and Nick Senzel.

Aristides Aquino in September:

  • AVG: .190
  • BB%: 3.8%
  • K%: 31%
  • wRC+: 38

Yikes.

Pirates Lineup

[Graphics: Baseball Savant]

Big thanks to Mike Hart, who contributed graphics and research for this post.

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Steve Mancuso

Steve Mancuso is a lifelong Reds fan who grew up during the Big Red Machine era. He’s been writing about the Reds for more than ten years. Steve’s fondest memories about the Reds include attending a couple 1975 World Series games, being at Homer Bailey’s second no-hitter and going nuts for Jay Bruce at Clinchmas. Steve was also at all three games of the 2012 NLDS, but it’s too soon to talk about that.

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