RC+ Preview: Reds try to break out of September slog

by — September 4, 2019 in Game/Series Preview

The Reds (64-75) look like a team in desperate need of a day off, and there isn’t one in sight. Since the back-to-back doubleheaders, they have struck out 23 times and only have 2 extra-base hits. To make matters worse, Phillies (72-65) ace Aaron Nola will take the mound on Wednesday night. With Eugenio Suarez still sidelined due to a hand contusion and Nick Senzel scratched from the lineup with an undisclosed issue, David Bell will look to his bench to help provide a lift to this ice-cold offense.

Pitching Matchup

Trevor Bauer takes the mound after consecutive disastrous starts. The right-hander has had his fair share of bad bounces that have inflated his BABIP, but he has battled his command and control in recent outings. Keeping his four-seamer out of the middle of the zone will be critical tonight against a strong lineup — the pitch has been crushed over the last month.

  • .281 xBA (.359 BA)
  • .574 xSLG (.744 SLG)
  • .416 xwOBA (.495 wOBA)

Aaron Nola hasn’t replicated his 2018 dominance that saw him finish third in NL Cy Young voting. But he has still been the Phillies’ best starter by a mile. His curveball and changeup have been nearly unhittable since the All-Star break; both have whiff rates over 50%. Nola has a 3.58 FIP and 3.65 xFIP in the second half. The Reds will have their work cut out for them with a weak lineup in place.

Reds Lineup

This looks more like a lineup we’ve seen the last four years. As mentioned, Suarez will miss his third straight game with a hand contusion and Senzel was scratched from the original lineup. Brian O’Grady slides to center field, while Phillip Ervin takes left.

Tucker Barnhart is the cleanup hitter tonight. Let that sink in for a second. It’s his first career start in the four hole. He has the fourth-worst xwOBA among all players in the lineup and the third-lowest average exit velocity. Although he’s had a better second half, his OPS+ isn’t far above league average (107).

Here are the splits for Reds hitters against right-handed pitchers:

Phillies Lineup

[Graphics: Baseball Savant]

Matt Wilkes also contributed to this preview.

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Mike Hart

Mike Hart is a Cincinnati native who grew up a huge Reds fan. He attributes his fandom to his Mom who, even in the lean years, would drop anything to go catch a Reds game with him. One of his fondest memories is sitting in the top row of Cinergy Field on a freezing October evening watching Al Leiter end the Reds 1999 season. While it wasn’t the result he wanted, it is still the most meaningful game that he has ever attended, and with the Reds' recent embrace of analytics, he is hopeful that he will be able to attend another playoff game sometime soon. Mike went to Lakota West High School and then was a collegiate swimmer at Georgia Tech, where he received his Chemical Engineering degree. He currently lives in Columbus, but he is often down in Cincy to catch a game with his Mom. Find him on Twitter @mikehart7, where he is known to have some opinions about all Cincinnati sports

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