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Previously here at RC+, I wrote about the early returns of a new type of outfield shift that the Reds have been employing on occasion this year. Today, let’s take a look at the more classic shift that takes place in the infield.
According to Statcast, any time a team places three infielders on one side of second base, that is defined as a full shift. Any other deviation from standard positioning but with two infielders on either side of second base is strategic positioning. An example of this would be the second baseman shading back into right field to have more time to field a hard-hit groundball. That leaves all other scenarios as standard positioning.
To look at how much teams utilize the infield shift, below are the league numbers for the past 4+ years, in terms of percent of total pitches. For reference, strategic positioning has remained constant at around 8% each year.
- 2015 – 9.6%
- 2016 – 13.8%
- 2017 – 12.1%
- 2018 – 17.4%
- 2019 – 25.2%
With the exception of 2017, the trend is clearly an increase in shifts across the league, up to over a quarter of the time so far in 2019. Given this behavior, we know that teams see a benefit from this. One way we can understand this is with Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP).
BABIP factors out strikeouts, walks, home runs and any other event that does not result in a defender fielding the ball. With this narrowed focus, we can see how many balls in play go for hits against a shift compared to how many go for hits against a standard formation. In theory, the BABIP vs shifts should be lower than the BABIP vs standard. This is because the defenders are better positioned to make an out based on the hitters batted ball tendencies.
League BABIP comparison, shift vs standard:
- 2015 – 0.284 vs. 0.301
- 2016 – 0.288 vs. 0.302
- 2017 – 0.278 vs. 0.302
- 2018 – 0.276 vs. 0.299
- 2019 – 0.284 vs. 0.294
The variances are not staggering, but clearly are lower for balls hit into the shift.
The numbers get even more distinct when looking only at ground balls. While the shift can help catch more line drives hit right to defenders, the real benefit is from balls hit on the ground.
League ground ball BABIP comparison, shift vs standard:
- 2015 – 0.203 vs 0.254
- 2016 – 0.222 vs 0.252
- 2017 – 0.208 vs 0.254
- 2018 – 0.211 vs 0.253
- 2019 – 0.225 vs 0.247
Across the board, the likelihood of a ground ball being a hit is less than a fly ball or line drive, so that makes sense to start. On top of that, the gap between the shift and standard positioning is much wider. In essence, shifting the infielders has reduced the hit percentage of ground balls from about 25% down to 20-22%. That is significant when played out over a full season.
This essentially proves what we already knew: the shift works and that is why teams use it.
But how do the Reds utilize the shift? And have they seen the same results as the rest of the league?
First, how have the Reds positioned their defenders in recent years?
While not quite in line with the rest of the league on strategic or shifted positioning, the Reds have clearly trended towards using less standard positioning, an overall positive sign. That said, the true shift has not fully been embraced until this year, lagging behind league average in each season prior. This fits the same narrative posed in a recent article from Bobby Nightengale that details how much more data the pitching staff has available to them this year. It is safe to assume David Bell and the new coaching staff have been a major factor in the increased use of shifts as well.
To understand if the Reds are seeing the same results as the rest of the league, below is the same exercise as above, but for the Reds only.
Reds ground ball BABIP comparison, shift vs standard
- 2015 – 0.253 vs 0.252
- 2016 – 0.224 vs 0.253
- 2017 – 0.245 vs 0.248
- 2018 – 0.141 vs 0.266
- 2019 – 0.244 vs 0.209
Digging down to the team level, the data gets a little less consistent, partially driven by smaller sample sizes. 2015, for example, only had 95 instances of ground balls against the Reds with a shift. So while 2016 and 2018 show that the shift worked, 2015 and 2017 show no real difference between the shift and standard.
2019, on the other hand, shows why some fans may be frustrated at the shift. If it seems like the Reds have not been getting positive results, that’s because they haven’t. It’s only 86 ground balls so far, but opponents are reaching base around 3.5% more often on ground balls into the shift compared to a standard formation. Part of this is honestly getting a bit lucky in the standard formation, but also getting a bit unlucky while in the shift.
Exhibit A: a single by Steven Duggar in a recent game against the Giants. The diagram below shows shortstop Jose Iglesias playing to the right of second base. Even with the shifted positioning, the ball just manages to sneak between the defenders for a hit.
To go a little more in depth here, we can look to expected outcomes from Statcast data. Based on the exit velocity and launch angle of this ball, it had a 71% chance of being a hit. So even if the Reds were not shifted, there is a slim chance that second baseman Jose Peraza comes up with this ball. With the shift on, the Reds at least gave themselves a shot, but just got unlucky.
Looking at opponents’ actual batting average (BA) vs their expected batting average (xBA) in total, this is clearly what is going on with the Reds.
Reds ground balls into the shift, BA vs xBA
- 2015 – 0.253 vs 0.285
- 2016 – 0.224 vs 0.277
- 2017 – 0.245 vs 0.293
- 2018 – 0.141 vs 0.225
- 2019 – 0.244 vs 0.228
While the quality of opponents’ contact in 2019 has produced an xBA of 0.228, the actual batting average has come out to 0.244. This runs against each of the last four seasons that have seen the actual batting average well below the expected batting average. That variance is due to the position of the defenders, and it is the reason the Reds are shifting more than ever.
The bottom line, the shift works and the Reds know that. They have more than doubled their usage so far this year compared to last year, but have been unlucky so far, a microcosm of the Reds season and record. Based on the results of the past few seasons, and what the rest of the league is seeing, Reds fans can expect that to turn around throughout the course of the year. Just don’t expect the shift to go away anytime soon.
