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David Hernandez gave up two home runs in the 8th inning last night, turning a Reds 1-run lead into 1-run deficit. Sure, the offense only scored two runs in a game at Coors Field. That’s a big factor in the loss, too.
But let’s focus on the Hernandez part of it for now and see what conclusions we can draw about his 2019 and the Reds bullpen.
Time Before the Reds
David Hernandez is 34 years old. He’s been a relief pitcher since 2010. Before coming to the Reds, Hernandez played for the Orioles, Diamondbacks, Phillies, Angels and the Diamondbacks again. He lost the 2014 season recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Prior to the 2017 season, Hernandez missed the cut on minor league contracts for two teams, the Giants and the Braves. Hernandez ended up playing for a league minimum salary of $535,000 in 2017 with the Angels and Arizona. After 2017, Hernandez once again became a free agent.
David Hernandez has been a serviceable, middle-of-the-road reliever over his time in the majors. His career K% is 24.0 while the league has been 22.5%. His walk-rate has been 9.0% while the league has been 9.1%. His seasonal ERA has bounced around a bit. But ERA as a statistic is erratic in reliever-season bite sizes. Earned runs given up is something pitchers don’t have a lot of control over.
If instead we look at composite statistics that focus on what a pitcher can control (like xFIP and SIERA), Hernandez has been a fairly consistent, not great, not terrible reliever for more than half a decade.
xFIP
- 2013: 3.99
- 2015: 4.13
- 2016: 4.11
- 2017: 3.79
- 2018: 4.12
- 2019: 3.88
SIERA
- 2013 3.28
- 2015 3.47
- 2016 3.75
- 2017 3.32
- 2018 3.41
- 2019 3.50
Hernandez with the Reds in 2018
The Reds gave Hernandez a 2-year, $5 million contract for the 2018 and 2019 seasons.
What you think about how he has pitched for the Reds depends in part on what statistics you use to evaluate him.
Based on his ERA (2.53) you’d say he had his best major league season since 2012. Based on his xFIP (4.12) or SIERA (3.41) you’d say his 2018 season was in line with the rest of his career. His underlying performance numbers (strikeouts, walks, etc.) back up the latter conclusion.
Hernandez in 2019
David Hernandez has had an elevated ERA through most of 2019. Month-by-month ERA splits are a lousy, horrible way to assess pitchers, but Hernandez went 4.05, 6.17 and 4.22 in ERA for April, May and June.
But other statistics show he had a tremendous month of June. League average wOBA allowed is around .318. His month-by-month numbers were:
- .319 (March/April)
- .310 (May)
- .226 (June).
In both May and June, Hernandez had tremendous strikeout and walk rates. His xFIP went
- 4.74 (March/April)
- 4.09 (May)
- 1.87 (June)
Keep in mind that league average ERA and xFIP are around 4.50 this year.
The conventional eye-test wisdom was right. David Hernandez was outstanding in most of June. He’s been good for other stretches this season as well.
The Hernandez Narratives
But in Hernandez’s last five appearances, dating to June 29, he’s given up more than one run in four of them, including last night. That awful stretch has spawned two narratives among Reds fans and broadcasters.
#1: David Hernandez was a great relief pitcher earlier this year, but now he stinks.
#2: David Hernandez has been worn down by being overused.
The reality doesn’t fit either.
David Hernandez didn’t become a great reliever earlier this year. Journeymen relievers at age 34 don’t do that. Instead, his excellent month of June should be seen as a normal aspect of what the vast majority of relief pitchers go through. They can put together good stretches. In fact, if relievers don’t have those, they don’t last long enough to become veterans.
But relievers inevitably suffer bad periods as well. If relief pitchers are anything, they are inconsistent during the season and usually between seasons. If relievers had the stuff to get batters out on a consistent basis, they’d be starters.
Hernandez didn’t become great out of the blue and he isn’t terrible now.
He’s just David Hernandez, a journeyman relief pitcher and this is what they do.
You might have been misled by Hernandez’s ERA last year (2.53). But if you’d paid attention to better stats (his 4.12 xFIP, for example), you’d have known what would happen. If you’re analyzing relief pitchers based on ERA, you’re doing it wrong. That is unless you’re living the 1990s or before. We can do a lot better now.
Implications for David Hernandez
Don’t freak out over short-term swings in relief pitcher outcomes. Avoid becoming too optimistic about the durability of the good times and don’t get too pessimistic when they struggle. It’s part of the job.
David Hernandez in 2019 has been the David Hernandez of his past 5-6 seasons.
Implications for the Reds Bullpen in General
Don’t fall for the too-easy media narrative that the bullpen is worn out.
David Bell has used his bullpen for 298.2 innings. That ranks 24th out of 30 teams. There are teams that have used their bullpens for 100+ more innings than the Reds. The Brewers are at 374 innings, the Pirates at 345 and the Cardinals are at 310. The first-place Yankees 345 innings, first-place Braves 341 innings, first place Astros 309.
Only one Reds reliever ranks in the top 45 in innings used. Michael Lorenzen is #12. David Hernandez has pitched 38.2 innings, good for #47 in baseball. He’s on pace to throw 71 innings. He threw 64 last year and 72 in 2016. Jared Hughes threw 78.2 last year. Hernandez is not being overused or worn out.
[A certain family of Reds broadcasters use that “bullpen tired” narrative as a dog whistle to complain about David Bell’s managing. Don’t buy it. The facts indicate otherwise.]
Instead, what’s happening to the Reds bullpen is what’s happening to David Hernandez. Natural correction. The Reds bullpen, despite pre-season projections for being average at best, has been in the top 5 in ERA and xFIP all season. In fact, they are still first in xFIP in the major leagues. To the delight and surprise of Reds fans, the bullpen is over-achieving.
But it isn’t going to stay that way. Never was. Gravity wins. As Reds relievers start to struggle, it doesn’t mean they’ve been used too much. More likely, it’s them being relief pitchers. Inconsistent relief pitchers. They’re going through a bad stretch just like they went through a surprising good stretch earlier.
Clear eyes and a little common sense will tell you that.
[Photo: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports]
