RC+ Preview: Reds vs Pirates (July 31) – Dust settles from last night as Reds go for series win

by — July 31, 2019 in Game/Series Preview

The Reds will take on the Pirates again today after last night’s game featured undoubtedly the most eventful 30 minutes of the season. The Reds traded away RF Yasiel Puig and prospects Taylor Trammell and Scott Moss in a three-team trade that brings Trevor Bauer down to Cincinnati from Cleveland. No more than 15 minutes after this news started hitting Twitter, the Reds and Pirates engaged in Part 2 of their season melee series, with Amir Garrett and who else but Puig front and center of the scrum. It was a nasty cap on an ugly game that ended the Reds winning streak and dropped them to 49-56 on the year. Despite all this, the Reds still have a chance to win their third consecutive series for the first time all season.

Pitching Matchup

The Reds clearly have the advantage between the starting pitchers as they celebrate the matinee with Luis Castillo day. The Pirates will have rookie Dario Agrazal making his seventh career MLB start.

Castillo’s only weak spot continues to be his very high walk-rate. It has contributed to bringing his FIP/xFIP back to reality lately. However, his swing-and-miss stuff continues to be among the best in baseball.

Batting Orders

Josh VanMeter gets the start in left as the post-Puig era kicks off in Cincinnati. His xwOBA of 0.364 leads the lineup today, though he only has a small sample of batted balls. Look for a piece at Reds Content Plus in the next couple days regarding the state of the outfield going forward.

For the Pirates, Reynolds, Marte and Bell comprise a formidable heart of the order. However, those three are a combined 3-28 against Castillo in their career. Colin Moran has had the most success off of the All-Star, going 5 for 9 with a home run.

Graphics courtesy of FanGraphs and Baseball Savant

Matt Habel

Matthew Habel was born and mostly raised in Cincinnati and was always a Reds fan growing up. Ironically, he did not become die-hard until moving to Pittsburgh after college and experiencing the 2013 Wild Card game behind enemy lines. While the "Cueto Game" is one of the worst sports moments of his life, he became enamored with the analytics side of the game after reading Big Data Baseball and watching the Pirates organization end their postseason drought. He started writing for Redleg Nation in 2017 and has enjoyed continuously learning more about the sport. He currently lives in Portland, Oregon where he loves exploring the great outdoors. Find him on Twitter @MattadorHeyBull

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