Trade Analysis – Life after Puig: How does the Reds right field look now? [Updated]

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This week’s deadline deal that sent Yasiel Puig to Cleveland has brought immediate attention to the Reds remaining outfielders. With Nick Senzel appearing to be penciled into centerfield for at least the remainder of 2019, three players are now in position for regular playing time in the corners. Jesse Winker, Phillip Ervin and Josh VanMeter will be looking to take advantage of increased at-bats and favorable split matchups. Below are some metrics for each player over the course of their major league careers.

Jesse Winker is clearly the best option of the three players, despite VanMeter’s hot start and Winker’s somewhat down year relative to expectations. Since Winker entered the league, he has been roughly 20% better than the average hitter (about 15% this year). If he can regain his elite on-base ability while maintaining his power surge, he will be a staple in the Reds lineup. Winker’s one big drawback though, is his poor performance vs left handed pitching. While he only has 142 career plate appearances, Winker’s wRC+ is down at 53, over 60% worse than his 135 wRC+ against right handers. David Bell has been aware of this and has only given Winker 45 opportunities against leftys this year. With Puig now out of the picture, VanMeter and Ervin will each get more opportunities to fill in against southpaws.

Ervin has played very well in his limited time this year and boasts a solid 111 wRC+ for his almost full season’s worth of career at-bats. The Reds should not expect him to keep going at his current pace (162 wRC+) but they can expect him to perform better vs LHP. Since 2016 (majors and minors), Ervin’s 0.828 OPS against LHP is about 8% better than his 0.764 OPS against RHP. That is nothing crazy, but it is much better than Winker’s career 0.545 OPS. Ervin’s wRC+ splits this year are severely exaggerated (319 vs LHP, 74 vs RHP) but should still be very favorable after they even out.

If Ervin continues to struggle against rightys, Josh VanMeter will get his chances to prove himself. We have already seen that on Wednesday with VanMeter and Winker starting vs a right-handed pitcher. VanMeter’s platoon splits are almost non-existent with only a 2% gap in performance. While his numbers vs LHP are not great (0.768 OPS since 2016), he still provides an upgrade to Winker if needed.

In the field, Winker and Ervin can both play left or right (and center, if needed) with VanMeter spending the vast majority of his outfield time in left. We also cannot forget Michael Lorenzen’s positional flexibility which gives Bell another late game weapon to upgrade Winker’s below average defense. We saw that on display against the Pirates with a terrific catch in the 9th inning.

None of these three will completely make up for the loss of Yasiel Puig, even if he didn’t swing the bat all that well in his time with the Reds. However, getting more playing time for all three will be key for development and understanding exactly what gaps will need to be filled heading into the 2020 season

UPDATE:

With the recent call up of Aristedes Aquino, it seems there is already a new face in the outfield, at least for the time being. Depending on how the Reds envision using him (potentially a lot since he is already starting vs the Braves), he could fill into RF nicely against either right or landed handed pitchers. He has been inconsistent from year to year in terms of his platoon splits, but since 2016 there is basically no difference in his OPS (0.803 vs 0.797). Without getting too crazy into different lineup scenarios, below are four potential ways the Reds could lineup.

David Bell is going with LHP 2 for the game against lefty Max Fried in Atlanta. Only time will tell how creative and balanced he will try to be with playing time for the rest of the year.

[Featured image: https://twitter.com/Reds/status/1150299042808782849]