RC+ Preview: Castillo looks to bounce back, set record

by — August 21, 2019 in Game/Series Preview

With last night’s win, the Reds have clinched the season series against the Padres, 4-2. This afternoon’s game will decide this 3-game series. It’s hard to believe, but the Reds have only lost one series in over a month, that was the sweep in Washington.

Luis Castillo looks to bounce back from the worst start of his career last Thursday against the St. Louis Cardinals when he gave up 8 earned runs in 4.1 innings. If Castillo strikes out 10+ batters today, it will be the first time, at least since 1900, that Reds starting pitchers have done that in three consecutive games. Trevor Bauer K’d 11 Padres on Monday and Sonny Gray struck out 10 last night.

Pitching Matchup

This is one of those pitching matchups that looks lopsided if all you see is the respective ERAs. But if you dig deeper, it’s much closer, depending on what metric you use. SIERA gives Luis Castillo a narrow edge over Matt Strahm. But xwOBA indicates a decided advantage for Castillo.

Castillo’s swinging strike rate (16.3%) is second best in MLB, behind Max Scherzer and just ahead of Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Jacob deGrom. 

Castillo pitched against the Padres in April, throwing 6 innings and giving up 1 earned run while striking out nine. He walked one batter. 

Matt Strahm is making his 16th start of the season, but his first since July 2. Strahm was taken out of the rotation and put in the Padres bullpen after a series of not-so great starts. So it will be interesting to see how far he can go today. He was a reliever for Kansas City in 2016 and 2017. Strahm pitched his best game of the year, by far, against the Reds in April, holding them to 1 run in 8 innings. He gave up just 2 hits and 0 walks.

Strahm’s pitch arsenal. Fastball, slider, curve, changeup.

Reds Lineup and Stats [updated]

Facing a lefty starter, David Bell has Nick Senzel batting leadoff and Josh VanMeter at 1B batting 8th. That’s basically a reversal from yesterday when the opposing starter was right-handed.

[Graphics: Baseball Savant]

Padres Lineup

[Graphics: Baseball Savant]

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Steve Mancuso

Steve Mancuso is a lifelong Reds fan who grew up during the Big Red Machine era. He’s been writing about the Reds for more than ten years. Steve’s fondest memories about the Reds include attending a couple 1975 World Series games, being at Homer Bailey’s second no-hitter and going nuts for Jay Bruce at Clinchmas. Steve was also at all three games of the 2012 NLDS, but it’s too soon to talk about that.

1 Response

  1. R Smith says:
    August 21, 2019 at 2:16 PM

    FWIW- the 6-4-3 DP with Iglesias/Galvis was a thing of beauty. Those 2 can play defense.

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