RC+ Preview: Castillo, Reds take aim again at Cardinals

by — August 16, 2019 in Game/Series Preview

The Reds (57-63) got the home stand off to a great start with a 2-1 victory over the Cardinals (63-55). With another win tonight, the Reds can narrow the season series gap with St. Louis to 7-6. Luis Castillo takes the mound tonight, following Sonny Gray and the bullpen’s outstanding effort last night.

Reiterating obligatory fan service: If the Reds have any hope at re-entering the chase for playing in the postseason, it must begin by beating the Cardinals.

Reiterating the reality: The Reds can spoil the Cardinals chances for the postseason. #spoiler

Pitching Matchup

Luis Castillo is keepin’ on keepin’ on with his great season. He’s cut back on his walks, which had been a problem earlier in the season, averaging just one per start in his last five. Dating to July 1, he’s thrown 45.1 IP with 57 strikeouts and just 9 walks. Among MLB starting pitchers, he has the 11th highest K%, the 6th highest fastball velocity, the second highest swinging-strike rate and the lowest contact rate. Even if the Reds don’t lift a finger to sign Castillo to an extension, he’ll be pitching here through the 2023 season. Dan Straily, anyone?

Here is Castillo’s pitch arsenal:

Adam Wainwright used to be tough on the Reds. He’s 37 now and not so much. In his last start in GABP, he gave up 7 runs in 3.1 innings. That was the night of Ryan Lavarnway’s 2-homer, 6 RBI performance. (We’re working hard to forget the Reds somehow lost that game 12-11.) Wainwright relies more and more on his curveball, which gives batters a better look at it.

Wainwright’s pitch arsenal.

Reds Lineup and Stats

No Jesse Winker tonight against another LHP. Hmm. Matt Wilkes speculated on Twitter that maybe he’s nursing an injury or illness. That would make sense. Instead, you get Phillip Ervin again vs. a RHP. Joey Votto sits another game with a balky back. Josh VanMeter plays 1B and bats in Joey’s #2 spot in the lineup. That’s handy (and something to keep in mind long-term). Freddy Galvis is at 2B as Jose Peraza’s playing time shrinks further. Superman back in RF. Jose Iglesias at SS.

In case you missed this stat earlier in the day: Since the Puig trade with Cleveland, the 57 plate appearances for Reds right fielders has produced: .340/.386/.868. That’s an wRC+ of 207 (100 is league average)! Aristides Aquino has 51 of the 57 PA.

[Graphics: Baseball Savant]

Cardinals Lineup

Tommy Edman in for rookie Randy Arozarena tonight. Otherwise the same group as last night for the Cardinals. Edman played 3B last time the two teams met.

[Graphics: Baseball Savant]

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Steve Mancuso

Steve Mancuso is a lifelong Reds fan who grew up during the Big Red Machine era. He’s been writing about the Reds for more than ten years. Steve’s fondest memories about the Reds include attending a couple 1975 World Series games, being at Homer Bailey’s second no-hitter and going nuts for Jay Bruce at Clinchmas. Steve was also at all three games of the 2012 NLDS, but it’s too soon to talk about that.

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