RC+ Preview: Reds vs. Padres, looking for Joe Mauer

by — August 19, 2019 in Game/Series Preview

The Reds and Padres have identical 58-65 records. They’re both in fourth place in their divisions. Nothing to #spoil in this 3-game series. The Reds took 3 of 4 from the Padres in San Diego in April. The four games were close and low-scoring. Neither team scored more than 4 runs in any game.

The most exciting player in baseball, Fernando Tatis, Jr., plays for San Diego. Tatis is regarded as a defensive whiz at shortstop, hits for power [his ISO of .270 is about the same as Eugenio’s ISO] and this season tagged up and scored on a pop-up to second base a la Billy Hamilton. FanGraphs ranks Tatis the 2nd most valuable player in the game, just after Atlanta’s Ronald Acuna. And Fernando Tatis, Jr. is just 20 years old, 3.5 years younger than Nick Senzel.

Sadly, we won’t get to see Tatis play in Great American Ball Park this week because he’s out for the year with a back injury.

That leaves us story lines about opposing pitchers with rhyming names.

Spring Training Schedule

MLB released the Reds 2020 Spring Training schedule. First game is Saturday, Feb. 22 against Cleveland in Goodyear Ballpark. It runs through Sunday, March 22. Opening Day is Thursday, March 26 against the St. Louis Cardinals.

Pitching Matchup

Trevor Bauer looks to bounce back after a nightmarish 5th inning against the Washington Nationals last Wednesday. Looking at the 9 earned runs Bauer gave up, it would be easy to forget he entered the 5th inning in a 1-1 pitcher’s duel with Stephen Strasburg. Bauer looks to get back on track tonight against a Padres lineup that’s decent, even without Tatis.

Here is Bauer’s pitch arsenal:

Eric Lauer is a 24-year-old left-hander. Lauer has made 22 starts this year, including one against the Reds. He held David Bell’s team to 2 runs over 5 innings. Lauer doesn’t have a big fastball, which he throws half the time. He uses a cutter about a quarter of his pitches and a 12-6 curveball for most of the rest. Lauer doesn’t have swing-and-miss stuff, but he has good control and has kept the ball in the park with a league-average ground-ball rate.

Lauer’s pitch arsenal.

Reds Lineup and Stats [updated]

Still no Jesse Winker although with a LHP starting, he wouldn’t have been in the lineup anyhow. Joey Votto is on the IL, with Kyle Farmer at 1B. Jose Peraza with a rare start. He’s at 2B. Josh VanMeter sits vs. a lefty. Freddy Galvis gets a rare day off. Aristides Aquino bats cleanup again, looking to extend his historic home run streak.

[Update: Nick Senzel was scratched with a sore left elbow. Phillip Ervin is playing CF and leading off. Jose Peraza moves to LF and bats 5th. Freddy Galvis plays 2B after all.]

[Graphics: Baseball Savant]

Cardinals Lineup

No Fernando Tatis, Jr. But the Padres have Manny Machado, Hunter Renfroe (31 homers) and Eric Hosmer who are dangerous.

[Graphics: Baseball Savant]

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Steve Mancuso

Steve Mancuso is a lifelong Reds fan who grew up during the Big Red Machine era. He’s been writing about the Reds for more than ten years. Steve’s fondest memories about the Reds include attending a couple 1975 World Series games, being at Homer Bailey’s second no-hitter and going nuts for Jay Bruce at Clinchmas. Steve was also at all three games of the 2012 NLDS, but it’s too soon to talk about that.

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