RC+ Preview: Spoiler time, Reds start 4-game series in St. Louis

by — August 30, 2019 in Game/Series Preview

On July 4, the Reds at 41-44 were two games behind the Cardinals. Since then, St. Louis has put together two consecutive 16-9 months. The Reds did not.

Now the St. Louis Cardinals (73-59) sit atop the NL Central division by 1.5 games. That’s the same margin they enjoy for the second NL Wild Card slot. The Reds (63-70) are reduced to a spoiler role this weekend, in a four-games-crammed-into-three-days series. The double-header is on Saturday. The Reds will throw Trevor Bauer, Tyler Mahle, Sonny Gray and Luis Castillo against the Cardinals in that order.

The Cardinals hold a 9-6 edge on the season series so far. The teams split a recent 4-game series in Cincinnati.

Pitching Matchup

Trevor Bauer will make his sixth start for the Reds, looking to even up his ledger with three good ones and three not-so-good. He hasn’t faced the Cardinals yet this season.

It’s hard to know what to make of Dakota Hudson. The ERA-estimators are a lot less bullish on him than his ERA would indicate. And that includes his being unlucky on home runs so far. What the fielding-independent stats point to his his lowish strikeout rate and well above average walk rate. He’s made three starts against the Reds this year with just 7 strikeouts to go with 7 walks.

Reds Lineup

You can tell what hand Dakota Hudson uses to pitch based on David Bell’s leadoff spot. Josh VanMeter gets the start against righties. This is the same lineup as last night.

[Graphics: Baseball Savant]

Cardinals Lineup

All those old familiar names: Matt Carpenter, Yadi Molina, Kolten Wong to go with the newish thumpers in the Cardinals lineup Paul Goldschmidt and Marcell Ozuna. Paul DeJong is dangerous as well. This is a good St. Louis lineup.

[Graphics: Baseball Savant]

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Steve Mancuso

Steve Mancuso is a lifelong Reds fan who grew up during the Big Red Machine era. He’s been writing about the Reds for more than ten years. Steve’s fondest memories about the Reds include attending a couple 1975 World Series games, being at Homer Bailey’s second no-hitter and going nuts for Jay Bruce at Clinchmas. Steve was also at all three games of the 2012 NLDS, but it’s too soon to talk about that.

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