RC+ Recap: Reds fall inches short vs. Nationals

Football is often referred to as a game of inches. Tonight showed baseball can stake a claim to that moniker as well.

With the Reds down 7-5 to the Nationals in the top of the ninth inning, Joey Votto stepped to the plate with two outs and a runner on first base. He battled through a nine-pitch at-bat against Washington closer Sean Doolittle before belting a line drive deep to left field in vintage Votto fashion. The ball kept carrying and carrying — for a moment, it had the look of one of the biggest hits of the year. But the ball ultimately hit the top of the wall, and Votto had to settle for a 375-foot RBI double.

Conversely, the Nationals’ Matt Adams hit a two-run home run in the first inning that cleared the center-field wall by no more than a foot. Trea Turner hit a dagger of a three-run home run that left the bat at just 92.9 mph — not even enough to constitute hard contact, according to Statcast’s definition — and had a .050 xBA in the fourth inning.

A game of inches.

Back to the ninth inning: The Nationals intentionally walked Eugenio Suarez, and Josh VanMeter popped out to end the game.

Let’s not discount the effort the Reds put in to get back in the game. Aristides Aquino hit a 106-mph, 425-foot, opposite-field blast in the eighth inning to pull his team within three runs. Aquino is the first player in MLB history to hit eight home runs in his first 12 career games, by the way. Phillip Ervin crushed the first pitch he saw from Doolittle in the ninth for a 108-mph, 421-foot solo shot.

But the Reds had a lot of ugly moments tonight as well. Votto was thrown out at home with only one out in the first inning — a huge mistake by third-base coach J.R. House. The Reds scored only two runs against a rookie pitcher, Erick Fedde, with a FIP, xFIP, and SIERA above 5.00. Jose Peraza struck out on a pitch in the dirt with a runner on third base and one out in the seventh inning.

Anthony DeSclafani’s night on the mound may have been the toughest pill to swallow. On paper, the Reds had the advantage in tonight’s pitching matchup against the Nationals. But DeSclafani turned in his third straight clunker, allowing six runs in four innings. Each Washington tally came in brutal fashion: with two outs. There was some bad luck involved, to be sure (see the Turner home run).

Ultimately, though, Disco made too many mistakes. The events leading up to the back-breaking Turner homer stand out. With two outs, he gave up back-to-back singles to Victor Robles, the No. 8 hitter with an 87 wRC+, and Fedde, a career 2-for-32 hitter. The sequence was the largest momentum swing of the game; it cut the Reds’ win probability from 35.9% to 9.7%.

It still beats watching the Bengals, though, right?

Reds Most Valuable Players