by 
With the Cubs obliterating all the pitching they’ve seen lately, I like the Reds chances better tonight going with one of their actual starting pitchers instead of a bullpen game. Sonny Gray won’t be in the top tier of the NL Cy Young conversation, but he without question belongs in the second tier.
The battle among four teams — Cubs, Brewers, Cardinals and Nationals — for three postseason spots got even tighter last night. For the three NL Central teams, the stakes are high since the best record of those three gets to avoid the coin-flip play-in game. If you think Milwaukee can’t catch St. Louis, look at the two teams’ schedules. The better question is whether the Cardinals can hang on at all.
That puts the Reds, with two games remaining in Chicago and three with the Brewers squarely in the middle of it all, at least for part of the next two weeks.
Pitching Matchup
In the last three months, Sonny Gray has a 31% strikeout rate. That’s crazy good for a starting pitcher. Yu Darvish has a 35% rate over the same period.
Sonny Gray has walked 9.6% while Darvish has walked a minuscule 3%. That’s also /checks notes/ really good. Could be quite a night for starting pitching. As always the wind at Wrigley will have a say in that.
Reds Lineup
Joey Votto returns to the Reds lineup. Josh VanMeter leads off. Brian O’Grady gets a start in centerfield. The rest of the lineup is standard.
Here are the splits for Reds hitters against right-handed pitchers:
Derek Dietrich is 4 for 10, 2 HR, 5RBI against Darvish.
Cubs Lineup
[Graphics: Baseball Savant]
Big thanks to Mike Hart, who contributed graphics and research for this post.
