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When the Reds (66-77) take the field at GABP this afternoon, they look to avoid a sweep at the hands of the surging Arizona Diamondbacks (75-67). The D-Backs have won 11 of their last 12 games, including three over the Dodgers, and 14 of their last 18. On the Fourth of July, Arizona was 43-45. Since then they’ve gone 32-22.
The Reds record enjoyed a similar record (41-44) on Independence Day, but they have struggled to a 25-33 mark since.
Pitching Matchup
The lifeless Reds lineup (#GetTheHitting) hopes to revive against former and long-time Reds pitcher Mike Leake. Leake was with the Reds organization from the 2009 draft to the 2015 trade deadline and made 163 starts for Cincinnati’s big league club.
The Reds traded Leake on July 30, 2015 to the San Francisco Giants for Keury Mella and Adam Duvall. Duvall played parts of four seasons for the Reds, including two when he hit 30+ homers. Duvall played a solid left field, with three Gold Glove nominations. The Reds called the 26-year-old Mella up from AAA-Louisville on Sept. 3 but he has yet to get in a game.
Anthony DeSclafani pitched on the same 2015 Reds staff with Leake. He continues to put up solid numbers this season, with an ERA 10 percent below league average and an xFIP three percent better. Disco’s fastball velocity is a full MPH better than last year and two MPH better than 2016, before a series of elbow and oblique injuries kept him off the mound for more than 20 months.
Mike Leake has played for four major league clubs since being traded by the Reds: San Francisco, St. Louis, Seattle and Arizona. Leake’s only post-season appearance was the fateful Game Four for the Reds in the 2012 NLDS.
Leake has been a right-around-average big league pitcher since he debuted with the Reds in 2010. His numbers are higher in 2019, as they are for all of baseball.
Leake pitched for Arizona State in college, so his recent trade to the Diamondbacks is something of a return home. He’s made 6 starts for the D-Backs with an xFIP of 5.69 and 5.60 SIERA. He’s struck out only 12 batters in 35+ innings.
Leake’s Debut with the Reds
Mike Leake debuted with the Reds April 11, 2010, on a glorious GABP afternoon. He went 6.2 innings and gave up one earned run on four hits. He struck out 5 as the Reds beat the Chicago Cubs 3-1 on the way to an NL Central Division championship. Leake chipped in with two hits. Here’s the Reds lineup that day:
Reds Lineup
Manager David Bell, looking for an offensive spark, is going with a LH-heavy lineup against Leake. Josh VanMeter leads off followed by Joey Votto. Tucker Barnhart – yes, that’s Tucker Barnhart – batting cleanup. He’s a switch-hitter so that’s another lefty against Leake. Same with 2B Freddy Galvis. Brian O’Grady and Derek Dietrich, making rare starts, complete the lefty-brigade, batting 7th. Dietrich hasn’t started in 12 games and only pinch-hit twice since then.
Here are the splits for Reds hitters against right-handed pitchers:
Diamondbacks Lineup
[Graphics: Baseball Savant]
Big thanks to Mike Hart, who contributed graphics and statistical charts for this post.
