RC+ Preview: Luis Castillo toes the rubber in the desert

by — September 13, 2019 in Game/Series Preview

Coming off a disappointing series loss to the lowly Mariners, the Reds (68-79) will cap off their final West Coast swing in Phoenix. It’s the second straight weekend series against the Diamondbacks (75-72), who are still fighting for an NL Wild Card race but fading fast. Arizona has lost five straight games coming into tonight, putting them four games back of the Cubs for the second spot. Meanwhile, the Reds need just one more win to secure their best record since the 2014 season, as Steve Mancusco pointed out.

Pitching Matchup

Luis Castillo spun a gem against the D’backs last Saturday (7.2 IP, 2 ER, 11 K) and was rewarded with a loss due to no run support. (Another good time to point out that wins and losses are terrible ways to measure pitcher performance.) Since his career-worst start against the Cardinals on August 16, Castillo has changed up his approach, throwing the sinker/two-seamer as his primary fastball.

The result: his ground-ball rate, which had started to head south, is back on the way up.

The sinker is a bad pitch for most players, but it may work well for Castillo since it has such similar movement to his changeup and could create a tunneling effect.

The Reds get another crack at old friend Mike Leake tonight. The right-hander is having a tough season to say the least. He’s sporting the lowest walk rate of his career, but that’s been the only real positive. His stint with the Diamondbacks has been disastrous; in seven starts, Leake has a 5.88 ERA, 6.35 FIP, 5.53 xFIP, and a stunningly low 8.2 K%. Naturally, he held the Reds to two runs in six innings last Sunday, although his bullpen blew a late lead.

Reds Lineup

Here are the splits for Reds hitters against left-handed pitchers:

Diamondbacks Lineup

[Graphics: Baseball Savant]

Big thanks to Mike Hart, who contributed graphics and research for this post.

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Matt Wilkes

Matt Wilkes got hooked on Reds baseball after attending his first game in Cinergy Field at 6 years old, and he hasn’t looked back. As a kid, he was often found imitating his favorite players — Ken Griffey Jr., Adam Dunn, Sean Casey, and Austin Kearns — in the backyard. When he finally went inside, he was leading the Reds to 162-0 seasons in MVP Baseball 2005 or keeping stats for whatever game was on TV. He started writing about baseball in 2014 and has become fascinated by analytics and all the new data in the game. Matt is also a graduate of The Ohio State University and currently lives in Chicago. Follow him on Twitter at @_MattWilkes.

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