RC+ Preview: Reds look to bounce back

by — September 3, 2019 in Game/Series Preview

The Reds (64-74) are now tied for the season-worst 10 games below .500. With the Cubs also winning yesterday, the Phillies (71-65) are still 2.5 games back from the second wild-card spot.

Alex Wood was scratched from this start due to a back issue. Lucas Sims will make the spot start. Wood missed the first 4 months of the season with a back issue and it is unclear whether this is related and how long he will be out. Tyler Mahle can fill out the rotation going forward.

Pitching Matchup

Lucas Sims has pitched well enough out of the bullpen to earn this start over other potential starters turned relievers. He will be making only his third start of the year, but may not go deep because he pitched on Saturday. David Bell has long relievers like Sal Romano available to bridge the gap to the typical relievers. Sims has been generating a lot of swinging strikes out of the bullpen, leading to an impressive strikeout percentage. However, he will need to limit the walks against the Phillies who average 3.62 walks a game (fourth best in the NL).

Vince Velasquez uses predominantly his fastball and slider. He gives up a lot of hard contact. Velaszquez has been susceptible to the long ball. He has faced the Reds twice this year in relief, pitching 2.1 IP with 0 ER, 4 K, and 1 BB.

Fun fact: On August 2, Velasquez was forced to play Left Field in a 15-inning game where he had a 94.7 mph outfield assist and 5-star catch (15% catch prob.), both of which saved a run.

Reds Lineup

Suarez is still on the bench with his bruised hand, and Swiss army knife Kyle Farmer will take his place at 3B.  Freddy Galvis slots into the 3 hole. With Galvis being a switch-hitter, Velasquez will face 3 lefties to start the Reds lineup. VanMeter will lead-off and Senzel will bat 6th per usual against RHP. Philip Ervin will start on the bench but expect him to be called on to pinch-hit. He has a wRC+ of 86 against RHP and 192 against LHP, so he is an ideal candidate against LHP, but can hold his own against RHP.

Phillies Lineup

J.T. Realmuto is back in the lineup and catching.

[Graphics: Baseball Savant]

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Mike Hart

Mike Hart is a Cincinnati native who grew up a huge Reds fan. He attributes his fandom to his Mom who, even in the lean years, would drop anything to go catch a Reds game with him. One of his fondest memories is sitting in the top row of Cinergy Field on a freezing October evening watching Al Leiter end the Reds 1999 season. While it wasn’t the result he wanted, it is still the most meaningful game that he has ever attended, and with the Reds' recent embrace of analytics, he is hopeful that he will be able to attend another playoff game sometime soon. Mike went to Lakota West High School and then was a collegiate swimmer at Georgia Tech, where he received his Chemical Engineering degree. He currently lives in Columbus, but he is often down in Cincy to catch a game with his Mom. Find him on Twitter @mikehart7, where he is known to have some opinions about all Cincinnati sports

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