Opponent Preview : Milwaukee Brewers

by David Kelley — July 23, 2020 in Opponent Previews

Continuing our preview of opposing NL Central teams we take a look at the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers are coming off of a 2019 season that saw them finish at 89-73. This was good enough for 2nd place in the NL Central only 2 games behind the St. Louis Cardinals and a berth into the NL Wild Card Game against the Washington Nationals. They lost to the eventual World Series Champions after taking an early 3-1 lead only to give it up in the bottom of the 8th on a 3-run single by Juan Soto. The Brewers’ postseason run may have ended differently had it not been for superstar Christian Yelich being out due to injury. After making the playoffs for a second straight year, the Brewers look to continue the trend in 2020.

Off-season Losses

Although the Brewers had success in 2019, they are a much different team in 2020. One trademark of their front office under 35-year-old GM David Stearns is it hasn’t been shy about making changes, even after success. The lost two of their biggest contributors – C Yasmani Grandal (.246 AVG, .380 OBP, 121 wRC+) and 3B Mike Moustakas (.254 AVG, 35 HR, 113 wRC+), who both signed elsewhere in free agency. The Brewers also bought out the remaining year of 1B/OF Eric Thames’ (.247 AVG, .313 BABIP, 117 wRC+) contract, releasing him. Other significant position players were non-tendered, including 3B/1B Travis Shaw and IF Hernan Perez.

While losing 3 starting position players in the offseason, they also lost the following starting pitchers that accounted for 86 starts, or 53% of their games:

Zach Davies (31 stats, 3.55 ERA, 4.56 FIP, 1.29 WHIP) via trade to Padres
Jordan Lyles (11 starts, 2.45 ERA, 4.42 FIP, .225 BABIP) in FA
Gio Gonzalez (17 starts, 3.50 ERA, 4.04 FIP, 1.29 WHIP) in FA
Chase Anderson (27 starts, 4.21 ERA, 4.83 FIP, 1.27 WHIP) via trade to Blue Jays

They also lost significant bullpen arms, including setup man Junior Guerra (83.2 IP, 3.55 ERA, 4.52 FIP) and former All-Star Drew Pomeranz (2.39 ERA, 2.68 FIP, 2.14 xFIP).

Off-season Moves

Many Brewers fans started to feel discouraged in the early off-season believing the front office was making payroll cuts and planning for a rebuilding year. Yet, the Brewers made serious strides in revamping their roster after the losses, signing the following key free agents:

They also made multiple trades to bolster their roster:

Acquired C Omar Narvaez from the Mariners in exchange for minor league RHP Adam Hill and a Competitive Balance Draft Pick (Round B)
Acquired 2B/SS Luis Urias and LHP Eric Lauer from the Padres in exchange for OF Trent Grisham and RHP Zach Davies

None of these acquisitions were blockbuster trades or signings. But the Brewers acquired a solid group of veteran players that will have an impact.

Projected Rotation

Brandon Woodruff (4.01 ERA, 3.98 FIP, 1.27 WHIP)
Corbin Burnes (4.37 ERA, 4.18 FIP, 1.36 WHIP)
Freddy Peralta (4.28 ERA, 4.27 FIP, 1.34 WHIP)
Adrian Houser (4.29 ERA, 4.33 FIP, 1.35 WHIP)
Josh Lindblom (4.59 ERA, 4.67 FIP, 1.31 WHIP)

Players currently on the injured list but will make starts:

Brett Anderson (4.69 ERA, 4.76 FIP, 1.44 WHIP)
Eric Lauer (4.74 ERA, 4.89 FIP, 1.40 WHIP)

*Stats are Depth Charts projections for 2020

The Brewers’ overhauled rotation will be led by returning ace Brandon Woodruff, who posted an impressive 2019 line of 11-3, 3.62 ERA, 3.01 FIP, 3.36 xFIP, and 1.14 WHIP. His 3.01 FIP (for pitchers above 120 IP) was ranked 7th in all of the majors behind the elite Charlie Morton (2.81) and Jacob DeGrom (2.67). Woodruff, only 27 years old, still has a lot of upside so expect him to thrive in this shortened season. While the Brewers have a clear-cut ace in Woodruff, their starters from 2-7 represent an even flow of talent going into this season. Josh Lindblom is coming off an impressive season in the KBO (2.50 ERA, 2.83 FIP, 194.2 IP) where he focused more on the analytics of his pitching to change his repertoire. Expect veteran Brett Anderson to replace Freddy Peralta in the rotation once he returns from the 10-day IL (left finger blister) to cap off the rotation.

Relievers

Josh Hader, LHP, Closer
Corey Knebel, RHP, 8th-inning set-up reliever
Brent Suter, RHP, 7th-inning set-up reliever
Alex Claudio, LHP,
David Phelps, RHP
Jonathon Feyereisen, RHP
Justin Grimm, RHP
Mike Morin, RHP
Bobby Wahl, RHP
Devin Williams, RHP
Eric Yardley, RHP

Every Reds fan reading this knows who Josh Hader is — and you rightfully should. He has been one of the best, if not the best, reliever in the majors since coming up to the MLB with the Brewers in 2017. If a career 2.42 ERA, 2.74 FIP, 2.54 xFIP and a 44.6 K% aren’t convincing, then take a look at what he’s done against the Reds:

Reds hitting against Hader:

2019 – 39 ABs, 0.154 AVG, 2 Runs, 1 HR, 18 SOs
2018 – 36 ABs, 0.111 AVG, 4 Runs, 1 HR, 19 SOs
2017 – 31 ABs, 0.129 AVG, 3 Runs, 2 HRs, 15 SOs

Needless to say, Hader is not the guy you want to see. And he’s not alone as the only dominant reliever in the Brewers’ bullpen. Corey Knebel is coming off of Tommy John surgery after missing all of the 2019 season and the Brewers expect him to return to his past dominant form (2017: 1.78 ERA, 2.53 FIP, 2.97 xFIP, 40.8 K%, 91.9 LOB%). Along with Brent Suter and lefty-specialist Alex Claudio, the Brewers should have a reliable bullpen.

The Brewers look to improve on their middle-of-the-pack bullpen last year (18th in ERA and 13th in FIP) with the additions of veteran relievers Phelps and Yardley, who will likely be the next most relied on by the Brewers. Only 60 games will also help them as depth may be an issue if Hader and Knebel are unavailable.

Projected Lineup

vs RHP:

Eric Sogard, 3B
Lorenzo Cain, CF
Christian Yelich, LF
Ryan Braun, DH
Keston Hiura, 2B
Justin Smoak, 1B
Avisail Garcia, RF
Omar Narvaez, C
Orlando Arcia, SS

vs LHP:

Lorenzo Cain, CF
Christian Yelich, LF
Keston Hiura, 2B
Ryan Braun, DH
Avisail Garcia, RF
Justin Smoak, 1B
Jedd Gyorko, 3B
Omar Narvaez, C
Orlando Arcia, SS

The Brewers lineup will be led by 2018 NL MVP Christian Yelich, who finished 2019 with the NL batting title at a .329 AVG, .429 OBP, .442 wOBA, and 174 wRC+. Expect Yelich to compete for another MVP, with FanGraphs Depth Charts projecting him to hit for a .303 AVG, .398 OBP, 145 wRC+, 13 HR, and 40 RBI. Yelich may be second-best player in the MLB, behind Mike Trout. The Brewers will need him to have a great season for them to compete in the NL Central.

The offense does not end with Yelich as Lorenzo Cain, Keston Hiura, and veteran Ryan Braun are formidable bats for the middle of the Brewers lineup. The 23-year-old Hiura will be relied on as a big contributor to the Brewers this year after coming up from AAA last year to finish out 2019 with a .303 AVG, 139 wRC+, 19 HR, and 49 RBI in only 314 ABs. Hiura may be their next superstar.

The Brewers will try to squeeze one more good year out of the 36-year-old Ryan Braun who contributed 22 HR, .285 AVG, 117 wRC+, .354 wOBA in 2019. Omar Narvaez will have big shoes to fill after Milwaukee lost Yasmani Grandal, but as one of the better hitting catchers in the league (2019: 22 HR, .278 AVG, .345 wOBA, 119 wRC+) he will fit nicely into the back end of the lineup. The Brewers will look to improve upon their offensive struggles last year as they finished 18th in AVG, 14th in wRC+, and 24th in K%.

2020 Projection

The Brewers will be a part of the four-way race for 1st place in the NL Central. The Cardinals, Cubs, Brewers, and Reds each have the talent and possibility of taking the division.

The key for the Brewers?

They need their new starting rotation to step up along with reliable hitting from Hiura, Cain, and Braun. Craig Counsell, manager of the Brewers, will have a challenge working through the starting pitching and new bats. The one piece that the Brewers know they can rely on: Christian Yelich’s hitting. Yelich is one of the most dynamic hitters in the MLB and needs to shine for the Brewers to make the playoffs this year. Despite all of the losses this offseason, the Brewers are still in a good position to win the NL Central.