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Heading into 2020, Kansas City is coming off of two consecutive seasons with less than 60 wins. 100 losses is one thing, but a win total in the 50s is an extra level of brutal. I suppose the World Series trophy from 2015 helps ease the pain a bit. What can we expect from them in this shortened season as one of the Reds new division rivals?
2019 Recap
After a 58-win season in 2018, the Royals took a baby step forward and won 59 games in 2019. The offense and pitching were both equally bad, finishing in the bottom five of the league. Defense was their only saving grace, coming in 6th in baseball with 27 defensive runs saved.
At an individual level, Jorge Soler and Hunter Dozier were by far the strongest offensive contributors. Whit Merrifield was above average and stole 20 bases while infielder Adalberto Mondesi contributed strong defense and stole 43 bases. Alex Gordon was the only other position player worth more than 1.0 fWAR.
The starting pitching was not great, as you probably guessed, though they did have 560 innings of above average pitching according to FIP (league average was 5.13). Not a ton of strikeouts (7.19 per 9 innings) and a fair amount of walks (3.27 per 9 innings) is not a great combination. Reds fans were glad to see Homer Bailey bounce back after a rough final year in Cincinnati. From the bullpen, Ian Kennedy hit 30 saves and accumulated 1.5 fWAR while Scott Barlow and Jake Diekman also pitched very well despite high walk rates.
The Offseason
With Ned Yost retiring at the end of the 2019 season, the Royals brought in former Cardinals manager Mike Matheny, who was fired by St.Louis during the 2018 campaign. Matheny’s old-school style of managing (strict bullpen roles, lineups based on small sample sizes, etc) may have contributed to his exit from St. Louis, but some Royals fans are hopeful he will adapt to some of the new ways that teams are becoming more informed with data. Royals Review details the Opening Day decision to pull Danny Duffy to avoid him facing the top of the Indians lineup for a third time. While it is probably unrealistic to expect too much change from Matheny, working with a team with no playoff expectations may allow him to try his hand at some more data-driven decision making.
On the player side, free agent additions included pitcher Mike Montgomery (who is currently injured), 3B Maikel Franco, and LF Alex Gordon, who signed a 1-year, $4MM dollar contract after having his $23MM option declined by the team earlier in the offseason. Talk about a pay cut. Trade wise, the Royals sent pitcher Tim Hill to the Padres for Franchy Cordero and Roland Bolanos, which will be interesting if Cordero can prove his 2017 AAA season (146 wRC+) was not a fluke, but he has barely had a half-season of at-bats in the two years since.
In former Reds news, the Royals signed Matt Harvey to a minor league contract in July. He is currently not on the major league roster but is on the 60-man, trying to work up to a return to the majors after a very bad stint with the Angels last year.
2020 So Far
The Royals are currently 7-10 with around a 20% chance of making the postseason, according to FanGraphs and Baseball Reference. They started the season losing 1 of 3 in Cleveland and splitting four games in Detroit. Then they had a very tough time against the Chicago clubs, going 1-6 with a 6-game losing streak. Since then though, they have rattled off four straight wins, including a sweep of division leader Minnesota.
Position Players
With Hunter Dozier testing positive for COVID-19 prior to the season, the Royals have been without one of their more productive bats so far. Whit Merrifield has picked up the slack and has posted a 144 wRC+ so far, with Jorge Soler, Salvador Perez and Maikel Franco all above average. Looking at quality of contact, Cordero, Soler and Perez are off to very strong starts. As a team, the Royals actually have the highest expected batting average (xBA, 0.276) and the 3rd highest expected slugging percentage (xSLG, 0.460) in baseball, according to Baseball Savant.
Looking specifically at Franchy Cordero, he does not have many plate appearances but he has hit the ball very hard and rather unlucky in his limited at-bats so far. The difference between his actual batting average (.160) and expected batting average (.407) is the largest variance in baseball for hitters with 25 plate appearances. That is not enough data to say that he will start producing high levels of actual results, but do not be surprised if you see a guy with a batting average below the Mendoza-line hitting hard line drives against the Reds.
Pitching Staff
Not much has changed on the pitching side. Danny Duffy certainly looks to be the anchor of the rotation and has gotten off to a good start. Free agent signing Mike Montgomery is on the 60-day IL with a lat strain and will most likely not pitch again this year. Statcast does not like the Royals pitchers quite as much as the hitters, but they do have a handful of hurlers who are limiting strong contact again them.
The Reds will be facing off against Kris Bubic on Tuesday, who is pitching in the majors this year after pitching very well at High-A last year. He was drafted in 2018 out of Stanford and was the Royals #6 prospect heading into this season.
In 10 innings this year he has been very successful at limiting quality contact against him. He has done so with a pitch arsenal of fastball, changeup and curveball, with distribution and zone maps below.
Conclusion
The Reds will play four against the Royals this year, split into two 2-game series exactly one week apart and both series coming out of a rare 2020 day off. They will look to capitalize on having a rested squad against a below-average club and earn a season sweep, which is very possible if the Reds plays up to their talent level. That said, the Royals are playing better than their 7-10 record would indicate, so they should not be underestimated.
[Featured image: https://twitter.com/Royals/status/1292272372314144773/photo/2]
