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The Milwaukee Brewers have been a tough competitor since 2017, winning the NL Central division once and finishing second twice. While they fell to fourth in 2020, they still made the expanded playoffs.
The Brewers had a payroll of $41,434,086 (after proration) in 2020, ranking 23rd among teams. The Brewers’ 2021 payroll is currently projected at $83,226,626, 20th among all teams.
2020 Recap
The Brewers finished 29-31 in 2020, good for fourth in the NL Central. However, because of the expanded postseason, they ended up in the playoffs, losing to the eventual World Series champion Dodgers.
Offensively, the Brewers had a rough year with just two hitters recording 100 PA or more with an above average wRC+: Christian Yelich and Jedd Gyorko. Yelich, who had just signed a $215 million extension prior to the season, couldn’t replicate his 2018-2019 success, but is a good bet to return to his status as one of the best hitters in the game in 2021. Gyorko is currently a free agent. As a whole, the Brewers’ offense ranked 24th in wRC+, fourth among NL Central teams.
The Brewers were carried by their pitching in 2020, ranking 11th in ERA, 4th in FIP, and 2nd in xFIP. Their rotation was anchored by Brandon Woodruff and one of 2020’s biggest breakouts in Corbin Burnes, who finished sixth in the NL Cy Young voting.
The Offseason
The Brewers had a fairly active offseason, making two key signings. They reached a 2-year, $18 million deal with former Cardinal Kolten Wong to be their second baseman. Wong’s arrival will shift last year’s second baseman Keston Hiura to first base in 2021. The Brewers also signed center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. to a two-year, $24 million agreement. Bradley, generally known as a glove-first center fielder, had a strong 2020, hitting .283/.364/.450 with a 120 wRC+.
Lorenzo Cain rejoins the team after he opted out last season. Cain will likely slide to a corner, and the Brewers had some corner outfield reps open up with Ryan Braun becoming a free agent. Braun has yet to sign with any team and has considered retirement.
The Brewers made a few smaller moves, signing infielder Daniel Robertson, catcher Luke Maile and re-signing starting pitcher Brett Anderson, all to MLB deals. They added familiar friend Travis Shaw on a Minor League deal.
Key Position Players
As a former league MVP, Yelich is the true heavy-hitter in the Brewers’ lineup, with superstar potential. Cain has had offensive success in his career. Beyond those two, it’s unclear what contributions the Brewers will receive at the plate. Nearly every player in their lineup comes with some uncertainty. Hiura has the highest offensive upside outside of Yelich, having posted a 140 wRC+ in 348 PA in 2019. However, he comes with huge strikeout concerns, having whiffed in 32.3% of his Major League plate appearances. League average was 23.4% in 2020.
According to FanGraphs’ Roster Resource, here is the Brewers’ projected lineup and corresponding projected wRC+ via ZiPS:
- 2B Kolten Wong (96 wRC+)
- CF Lorenzo Cain (92 wRC+)
- LF Christian Yelich (131 wRC+)
- 1B Keston Hiura (99 wRC+)
- 3B Travis Shaw (97 wRC+)
- RF Jackie Bradley Jr. (88 wRC+)
- SS Luis Urías (89 wRC+)
- C Omar Narváez (94 wRC+)
Key Pitchers
Burnes and Woodruff will again anchor the top of the Brewers’ rotation. Adrian Houser will also return with a rotation spot, after pitching to a 5.30 ERA/4.82 FIP/4.10 xFIP/4.45 SIERA in 2020. Houser was much more effective in 2019, posting a 3.72 ERA with a 3.88 FIP, 3.60 xFIP, and 3.91 SIERA. Anderson also returns as the lone lefty in the rotation, a fine back-end starter with limited upside.
The fifth rotation spot was won by Freddy Peralta, who pitched to a 3.99 ERA backed by an elite 2.41 FIP, 3.23 xFIP, and 2.81 SIERA from the bullpen in 2020. Peralta has incredible upside, and has been touted as having the potential to be this year’s Burnes. Though it’s unlikely he reaches the level of Burnes’ 2020, Peralta could absolutely break out in a rotation role this year. Last year’s fifth starter, Josh Lindblom, moves to the bullpen to begin the year.
The Brewers’ bullpen is anchored by the best 1-2 punch in the Majors. Josh Hader has been established as one of the best relievers in the game for a few years, and though he took a bit of a step back in 2020, still remains a great reliever. He’s joined by 2020 NL Rookie of the Year Devin Williams, who posted an insane 0.33 ERA, 0.86 FIP, 1.09 xFIP, and 1.56 SIERA in 27 innings. Williams struck out 53% of the batters he faced in 2020.
2021 Outlook
The Brewers hope to contend again in 2021, in what will likely be a closely contested division among four teams. The key for their success is the continued dominance of their pitching staff. A step up from their offense would be a welcome surprise and make them a true threat.
[Featured image: https://twitter.com/Brewers/status/1168663110800084992/photo/1]
