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The Reds took on another pitching reclamation project on Sunday, claiming right-hander Carson Fulmer off waivers from the Pirates.
It’s been quite the last eight months for Fulmer. He was designated for assignment by the White Sox and claimed by the Tigers last July. A month later, he was DFA’d again and claimed by the Pirates. His stay in Pittsburgh lasted about a week, as he was then claimed by the Orioles in early September. He ended up back with the Pirates later in the month when Baltimore waived him. Now, his path has brought him to Cincinnati following another DFA by the Pirates last week.
Background and MLB History
The White Sox selected Fulmer — a product of pitching powerhouse Vanderbilt — with the eighth overall pick in the 2015 draft. Of note, he arrived at Vandy the year after Reds pitching coach Derek Johnson left the program to become the Cubs’ minor league pitching coordinator.
Despite being a high draft pick and top-100 prospect, Fulmer’s career hasn’t panned out. In 105 innings across parts of five seasons, he has a 6.34 ERA, 6.23 FIP, and 6.01 xFIP. The underlying metrics are predictably ugly: a low strikeout rate (18.9%), high walk rate (13.9%), and high home run rate (1.71 per 9 innings).
Fulmer was undoubtedly rushed to the major leagues. The White Sox called him up just a year after he was drafted. He’d dominated High-A in 2015 (2.05 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 3.05 xFIP), but hit a speed bump in Double-A the following year (4.76 ERA, 4.16 FIP, 4.11 xFIP). Chicago called him up anyway even though he had only 26 appearances and 110 innings in the minor leagues. It didn’t go well, as he allowed an 8.39 ERA, 5.98 FIP, and 5.17 xFIP in 11.2 innings before he was optioned to Triple-A.
Things have never really improved from there. Fulmer has bounced back and forth between Triple-A Charlotte and the majors ever since, spending most of his time in the minors. He hasn’t pitched well at the lower level, either, posting a 5.39 ERA and 4.91 FIP in Charlotte with underwhelming strikeout and walk rates.
Injury History
Fulmer has mostly kept a clean bill of health. He spent time on the injured list in 2019 with a strained right hamstring but has otherwise avoided injury.
Repertoire
Once boasting a fastball that could hit 97 mph in his Vanderbilt days, he’s sat at 93 for most of his professional career. Paired with poor control, it’s been a recipe for disaster. Fulmer spent time at Driveline in the offseason between the 2018 and 2019 seasons. He saw an increase in fastball velocity from 92.8 to 93.6 mph as well as gains in spin rates, particularly on his curveball and cutter. But the results still didn’t come (6.26 ERA, 6.29 FIP, 6.02 xFIP in 27.1 innings). Providing some glimmer of hope, Fulmer’s best season came in 2020, when he had a career-best 23.9% strikeout rate and career-low 10.9% walk rate in just 10.1 innings with the Tigers and Orioles. Insert “small sample size” warning here.
You can probably guess why the Reds targeted the 26-year-old. He excels at spinning the ball.
In 2019, Fulmer’s fastball spin rate ranked in the 91st percentile. His curveball was in the 88th. His cutter was in the 90th. Notably, his four-seam fastball spin rate did drop by 150 rpm in 2020. But the Reds have a type, and he fit the mold.
Despite good spin on his curveball, Fulmer gets below average movement due to poor spin efficiency (53%). That’s another area the Reds will look to clean up. His fastball spin efficiency (80%) is also poor, although his raw spin still allowed him to get above average rise in 2019 (1.4 inches above average). With less spin in 2020, his fastball dropped by about two more inches on average, which took him to 0.4 inches below average.
His cutter has consistently gotten good movement, peaking at 2.9 inches above average in 2020, which has helped him achieve a strong whiff rate with the pitch (27.7%). Fulmer also throws a changeup, mostly against lefties. It’s been his best swing-and-miss pitch.
Conclusions
With bullpen spots already at a premium for the Reds, it’s hard to see Fulmer fitting in right away, especially based on his pedigree. However, just like Jeff Hoffman, another former first-round pick who’s struggled in the majors, he’s out of options. Perhaps Fulmer will compete with Hoffman for a bullpen spot, or perhaps the Reds will try to sneak their newest acquisition back through waivers at the end of spring training. Regardless, Fulmer will have precious little time to make an impression with the Reds brass; Opening Day is only two-and-a-half weeks away.
Featured Image: Quinn Harris/Icon Sportswire
