The Aristides Aquino Conundrum

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The Reds have faced a tough question with Aristides Aquino since his record-setting month in August 2019: was it just a flash in the pan or can he carve out a role in the big leagues and have a solid career?

It’s hardly a new question for the 26-year-old outfielder. The Reds have been trying to find an answer since signing him as a 17-year-old back in 2011. His minor-league career was filled with ups and downs. Aquino was oozing with raw potential. He had enormous raw power, good speed, and a cannon of a right arm. But like many minor-leaguers, he was held back by pitch recognition and plate discipline issues. The inconsistency was reflected in the Reds’ prospect rankings. Here’s where he was ranked each year by Baseball America:

• 2014: 24th
• 2015: 9th
• 2016: 18th
• 2017: 7th
• 2018: 14th
• 2019: 18th

With a high ceiling but a low floor, it was — and still is — hard to get a great read on him.

Following the 2018 season, he was even released by the Reds before re-signing with the organization on a minor-league deal. He made a major stance and swing adjustment in 2019, leading to a monster season in Triple-A Louisville and a blazing start to his big-league career.

Fast forward to 2021, though, and many of the same questions remain. He still has a big arm and plays solid defense. He can still punish mistake pitches. His long swing will lead to some strikeouts. But can he recognize pitches — breaking balls, specifically — well enough to contribute?

Unfortunately, the club couldn’t get a much better answer to that lingering question in 2020.

The Reds signed Nick Castellanos and Shogo Akiyama last winter, leaving him without a clear path to playing time. Then, the season was ultimately shortened to 60 games, further reducing the looks the Reds could get at Aquino. He received only 56 sporadic plate appearances, as he was optioned to the minors four different times in just two months. It’s unsurprising that he was unable to get into any rhythm, hitting .170/.304/.319 with two home runs and a 73 wRC+.

In that limited action, Aquino’s plate discipline remained baffling.

In some senses, the numbers are promising. He reduced his chase rate from 38.9% to 33.1%. That’s still worse than league average, but it doesn’t put him in the dubious “worst in the league” category. Aquino also walked in 10.7% of his plate appearances, not only above average but a much better rate than he carried in the past.

But did he actually improve his plate discipline? That’s highly questionable. He may have just made the conscious decision to swing less.

On the surface, that’s not a bad thing! He dropped his swing rate from a very high 55.7% to a roughly average 47.5%. He also dropped his swing rate from 82.5% to 67.4% on pitches within the strike zone, which was also about league average. That could mean he was really honing in on pitches within a certain zone. Pitches he knew he could do damage against.

However, there’s not much evidence that he was being more selective and waiting for mistake pitches he could hammer. Statcast considers pitches right down the middle as “meatballs.” They’re pitches thrown in zone 5 on this graphic. In 2019, Aquino feasted off of meatballs. He swung at 93.3% of these pitches, and he had an .896 wOBA against them. Last year, he was far less aggressive: his meatball swing rate dropped to 69.2%.

To take this a step further, look at the pitches Aquino did decide to swing at.

With his wide-open, pull-friendly stance, it’s not a huge surprise that his eyes lit up on those inside pitches. The problem: that’s the area inside the strike zone where he struggles to hit the ball with authority.

And lest you think this was strictly due to a small sample size, the pattern was similar in 2019:

The problem may be that Aquino’s long arms don’t allow him to get the bat around quickly enough on inside pitches. Meanwhile, his long arms are an asset for him on outside pitches. But his swing tendencies aren’t reflected in the results.

It’s also important to note that Aquino’s strikeout rate jumped to a very poor 32.1% (up from 26.7%) and his whiff rate rose to 38.5% (up from 35.5%). Most of that jump is because he continued to struggle with breaking balls. Aquino swung at fewer pitches outside the strike zone overall, but he still chased more breaking pitches (42.0%) than he did in 2019 (39.8%). Teams took notice, too. Take a look at where opponents were pitching him:

Aquino was thrown a curveball or slider on 36.1% of the pitches he saw in 2020, compared to 31.0% in 2019. Most alarming was the jump in whiff rate from 37.9% to 59.1% against breaking balls. Among 409 batters who swung at 25 or more breaking balls in 2020, only five had a worse whiff rate than Aquino. Small sample or not, that’s not good company to be in. To give Aquino some credit, he did chase and whiff at far fewer off-speed pitches (splitters and changeups) than in his rookie year. However, he only saw them 11.9% of the time.

So, did Aquino improve his plate discipline? Or was he just swinging less? Evidence points more toward the latter.

That said, it’s still hard to give up on Aquino knowing what his ceiling is. It’s even harder to make a clear determination when his playing time was extremely inconsistent.

But the Reds will have to make a decision on the soon-to-be 27-year-old outfielder. On Wednesday, the Reds learned that Aquino is officially out of options. That means the team cannot send him to the minor leagues without exposing him to waivers, which gives every other MLB team the chance to claim him. The Reds could leave Aquino off the Opening Day roster, designate him for assignment, and work out a trade with the team that claims him off waivers.

More likely, the lack of minor-league options increases Aquino’s odds of making the Opening Day roster. He’s currently competing with Tyler Naquin and Mark Payton for a backup outfield role. As of now, the Reds are planning to carry 13 position players and 13 pitchers, which should leave room for five outfielders. Steve Mancuso included five in his recent Opening Day roster predictions.

Naquin is on a minor-league contract and while it isn’t publicly known whether he has an opt-out clause, it’s very possible that he does. He’s had a strong spring training and gives the Reds some needed pop off the bench from the left side of the plate. Those factors probably make him a favorite for one of the spots. Payton is also a lefty with pop. However, he has two minor-league options left, making him the likely odd man out. The Reds could send Payton to the alternate site and avoid losing any players.

However, even if Aquino is included on the 26-man roster on April 1, it’s no guarantee he’ll stay. When fellow outfielder Shogo Akiyama returns from a hamstring strain, Aquino could find himself right back on the roster chopping block.

One way or another, Aquino should see more playing time in the majors than he did in 2020. It just may not be with the Reds.

Featured Image: Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire