Tyler Stephenson: Future Backstop of the Cincinnati Reds

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[Please welcome Chris Duzyk, who is joining our writing staff. — Matt and Steve]

Fans that had been clamoring for Tyler Stephenson’s promotion to the majors received an immediate payoff last season when he took a 1-0 fastball on a 415-foot ride to deep center in the first at-bat of his professional career.

By non-tendering Curt Casali and not bringing any other serious contenders in at catcher, the Reds signaled it was time for Stephenson to join the big club for the 2021 season. To what extent we will see him on the field remains to be seen.

Two-time Gold Glove winner Tucker Barnhart’s improvement against right-handed pitching in 2020 lends itself quite well to a platoon at catcher. Last year, albeit with a small sample size, Barnhart saw 80% of his plate appearances against a right-handed pitcher. It is slightly more complicated to truly platoon the catcher position. Certain pitchers are more comfortable throwing to certain catchers, and there are more rest days needed. Most managers refrain from a switch in the middle of a game in case of injury due to the limited amount of catchers on the roster. However, if the trend continues from last season (as always, a small sample size), we can expect manager David Bell to deploy Barnhart with a right-handed pitcher starting and Stephenson against lefties.

Assuming Stephenson slides into this role Casali vacated, what kind of production — at and behind the plate — can Reds fans expect?

Prospect/Minor Leagues

With the 11th pick of the 2015 draft, the Reds selected Tyler Stephenson out of Kennesaw Mountain HS in Kennesaw, GA. The 6-foot-4 backstop often drew comparisons to Matt Wieters and was projected as a below-average contact hitter with above-average to plus power. Up until his senior year of high school, Stephenson also pitched, often touching 90 mph. This arm strength, along with his large frame, paired well with his fundamentally sound footwork and receiving behind the plate, which led scouts to predict him to be an above-average catcher in the future. The first-round talent had the defensive skillset behind the plate to allow patience if his offense took time to come around, but his offense potentially projected to the point the franchise might have to move him to first base if his defense lagged.

After his shortened rookie season in Billings, Stephenson’s next two seasons were injury plagued. A concussion and wrist injury that required season-ending surgery cut his 2016 season short. In 2017, while sliding into second base, Stephenson incurred ligament damage to his throwing hand. Luckily, the ligament damage did not require surgery, but these injuries, no doubt, delayed the anticipated progression for one of the Reds’ top prospects. Playing a full season in 2018 at the High-A level, Stephenson accounted for a 111 wRC+ and a .339 wOBA. Stephenson joined the Double-A club for the 2019 season, where he continued to develop both offensively and defensively. He produced a 130 wRC+, .361 wOBA, and a K% of only 16.5% (his lowest across all minor league experience).

2020

Regardless of the Reds’ potential plans for Stephenson in 2020, it is safe to assume that it did not involve a lack of minor league baseball, alternate site teams, and a shortened MLB season. The alternate site, where Stephenson spent most of his 2020, did not provide statistics, but MLB.com reported “he was one of the best pure hitters at the Reds’ alternate training site.” Reds fans got a glimpse over 20 plate appearances when he was called up in September of the shortened season. We saw a small tease of the offensive ceiling with Stephenson’s two home runs, an average exit velocity north of 89 mph, and a barrel percentage of 12.5%. The few plate appearances also allowed for a K% of 45% and xBA of .205, both of which we can anticipate reverting closer to his minor league averages.

What to Expect

While it was exciting to see Stephenson in 2020, the sample size is just too small to make a projection on what those 20 plate appearances truly mean. However, when sampling the minor-league numbers, along with his scouting coming out of high school and through professional development, the flashes of power should continue to come for the 24-year-old. While we shouldn’t expect him to match Tucker Barnhart’s NL-leading 9 defensive runs saved and 5.8 dWAR from last season, Stephenson possesses the frame and physical attributes to be very solid behind the plate.

In an interview reported by MLB.com, Barnhart even conveyed that “he just continues to get better behind the plate. It’s beginning to look more and more natural for him,” when speaking on Stephenson’s defensive progression. Scouting reports seem to corroborate this advancement, specifically with his receiving. His large frame does present potential issues with blocking balls in the dirt, due to the time it takes to get down to the ball. However, that same length helps when covering ground vertically.

Along with the progression in his receiving skills, Stephenson has also been credited with shortening his approach and swing to improve his overall contact. Stephenson’s plate discipline is definitely another factor in this improvement. Since 2017, he has not had a season with a walk rate under 10%. Understanding the zone and avoiding chasing pitches has benefitted his contact at the plate and provides a nice floor to fall back on in his first full season in the pros.

Even with Barnhart’s exceptional defensive play, the drop-off offensively when he faces left-handed pitchers will lend itself well to Stephenson seeing quite a bit of playing time. Most projections provided to FanGraphs predict around 200 plate appearances over 50-60 games, with the exception being the ZiPS projections, which show over 100 games and almost 400 PA.

Reds fans should expect to see a solid defensive catcher who can keep runners at bay with his arm strength and provide some pop against left-handed starting pitchers. As with many rookies, as adjustments are made by both Stephenson and pitchers, there will be some ebb and flow with his production. But as mentioned above, his plate discipline and improved contact provide a solid foundation moving forward. The first-round talent and physical attributes allow for a much higher ceiling. At the bare minimum, look for superb flashes of athleticism from the rookie, like this display of of footwork and arm strength throwing out a speedster we know all too well.

Tyler Stephenson gunned down the first runner of his major league career last night, and it just so happened to be Billy Hamilton.

Check out the absolutely perfect throw from @Tyler_Step22 in his first career MLB start. pic.twitter.com/0ssdbPIP3S

— Bally Sports Cincinnati (@BallySportsCIN) September 11, 2020

Barnhart’s contract has a club option of $7.5 million next year, and if this past offseason’s transactions were any indication, I would be surprised if the then-31-year-old’s option is picked up. Regardless of the amount of playing time Stephenson sees on the field this season, this is likely the beginning of the franchise’s everyday catcher of the future.

Featured Photo: Keith Gillett/Icon Sportswire