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There’s a lot that happens on the baseball diamond that I enjoy watching. Diving catches. Stolen bases. Towering home runs. Those are all fun things, but there’s something that I’ve discovered about myself.
I’m a sucker for good pitching.
Over the course of the 2021 season, I will be examining specific innings in which Reds pitchers are particularly dominant to discover what brought them that success.
Who better to start with than my current favorite Red, Luis Castillo?
The Debut
Rewind the clock. The date is June 23, 2017. Joey Votto is in the midst of an MVP caliber season. Zack Cozart is about to be the proud owner of a donkey.
And Luis Castillo is making his Major League Baseball debut.
In front of 36,347 fans at Nationals Park, the future All-Star pitched 5 innings, giving up two earned runs. He walked 5 hitters, but he also struck out 5. The performance wasn’t particularly electrifying, but for Cincinnati fans, his debut represented a victory. You see, over the course of the 2017 season, the Reds pitching was historically bad. Collectively, the 2017 staff had an ERA+ of 87, good for 13% below average. The team’s FIP was also a poor 5.08, indicating the runs they were giving up were not the result of back luck. Day after day, the Reds starters struggled to get hitters out, making for a long and painful season in the midst of a rebuild that seemed never ending.
And then Luis Castillo took the mound.
His performance, while not awe inspiring, was a huge step forward from what Reds fans had come to expect from Cincinnati, and his success indicated that better days were on the way for the Queen City.
Fast forward to today. Castillo has made an All-Star team, and he’s solidified himself as the ace of the Reds staff. When looking at his peripherals, there is a solid case that he could even be a sleeper Cy Young candidate this season. Luis Castillo has so far lived up to the potential that so many saw in him.
April 7, 2021
Luis Castillo’s second start of 2021 went much better than his first. In the warmer temperature, Castillo pitched through the 7th inning. He gave up no runs, allowed only five baserunners and also struck out five. His strong performance on the mound helped solidify the Red’s three game sweep of the Pirates. While he pitched well throughout all seven innings, his first inning was particularly dominant.
Hello Newman…
The first batter Castillo faced was Pirates third baseman, Kevin Newman. The 27 year old righty struggled in 2020 but posted above average numbers in 2019. He also put up terrific numbers in spring training, prior to the 2021 season, with an OPS over 1.400.
Newman may be the first batter Castillo faces, but he won’t be in the batters box for long.
Castillo’s first pitch to Newman is a fastball. It cruises in at 94.7 MPH, rotating a 2,176 rates per minute. Luis Castillo’s fastball is actually below average (26th percentile) in terms of spin rate. According to Rapsodo, the average fastball rotates at 2,300 rates per minute, making this specific pitch about 5% worse than average. He compensates for the poor spin rate by throwing straight gas. Luis Castillo’s fastball is actually in the 97th percentile for velocity, making him one of the hardest throwing pitchers on the planet. As this pitch comes blazing in, there’s nothing Newman can do to this pitch but look at it for a called strike.
Castillo then challenges Newman again with another fastball. This fastball has a little extra gas to it, flying in at 96.3 MPH. The spin rate is also improved, with the ball rotating at 2,243 rates per minute. Newman decides to swing at hits a ground ball back to Castillo, who easily tosses the ball to Joey Votto for the first out.
Goodbye Newman.
Facing the Speedy Difo
Wilmer Difo is an interesting player. He’s played almost all of his career in Washington and has never received more than 456 plate appearances in a season. While he doesn’t hit the ball particularly hard, he also doesn’t strike out often. Both his whiff % and strikeout % are above average. His speed is also in the 85th percentile, making him a potential stolen base threat. If Difo puts the ball in play, he may become a thorn in the Reds side, while on the base paths.
The first pitch to Difo is another fastball, Castillo’s third of the game. This fastball blazes in at 95.9 MPH and a spin rate of 2,329 RPM. Difo watches it fly by for a called strike one.
Castillo’s second pitch to Difo is another fastball. This fastball comes flying in at 96.4 MPH and a spin rate of 2,288 RPM. This time, Difo decides to swing. He makes contact, weakly sending the ball into foul territory. The count is 0-2. Difo is in trouble.
So far, Castillo has only shown his fastball to the Pirates. It’s an impressive pitch-one of the most impressive in the game. But he’s about to pull out his best pitch.
Castillo’s change up has been described as being one of the best pitches in all of Major League Baseball. It is so effective, that it has received comparisons to the changeup of the great Pedro Martinez-one of the best pitchers to ever walk the earth. The key to the pitch is the deception. Castillo sets it up using his elite fastball velocity before dramatically slowing things down. He throws it about 36% of the time, more than any other pitch. Due to his heavy usage of the changeup, some have referred to Castillo as being a one trick pony.
If that’s true, then this is a very good trick.
The pitch comes in, wildly different than the fastball. It’s almost 10 MPH slower, clocking in at 87.4 MPH and spinning at 1,893 RPM. From the perspective of the batter, it looks nearly identical to his elite fastball, before suddenly dropping out of the strike zone. This causes many batters to chase an out-of-the-zone pitch. Castillo is actually in the 95th percentile for getting hitters to chase. When batters chase a ball, there is a high likelihood that they will not make hard contact. They either completely whiff or make very weak contact.
Difo is outmatched, completely missing the ball.
Strike three, you’re out.
The Talented Colin Moran
I actually like Colin Moran a lot. He seems like he plays hard, and he’s shown solid talent. He also has a killer beard. During the 2020 year, Moran was actually one of the few above average hitters in the Pirates lineup. He can be a bit streaky, but he can be a dangerous hitter when he’s locked in, and he’s not going down as easily as the first two Pirates hitters.
For his first pitch against Moran, Castillo elects to use his fastball again. It flies in at 95.2 MPH and 2,199 RPM. Moran has a good eye though and doesn’t swing. The count is 1-0.
The second pitch Moran faces is yet another fastball. It comes in at 96.1 MPH and rotating just a tick below average at 2,281 RPM. Moran again chooses not to swing, but the pitch is called as a strike. 1-1.
Having thrown two fastballs to the talented Moran, Castillo turns to his best pitch, the changeup. It comes in at a slow 87.3 MPH and 1,929 RPM. Moran swings and barely makes contact, fouling off the ball. With two outs and the count in his favor, Castillo has some flexibility with how he will approach Moran with his next pitch.
Castillo next throws three straight changeups. All three reach the plate at exactly 88 MPH. Moran reaches for the first changeup, fouling off another pitch. He sits on the second changeup, which is called for a ball. The third changeup is also fouled off.
With Moran having seen three changeups in a row, Castillo turns up the heat. His next fastball is the fastest pitch of the inning, flying in at 97.8 MPH. The spin rate is above average too, rotating at 2,370 RPM. The fastball is elite, but Moran is able to foul it off to stay alive. The count is 2-2.
Having thrown his hardest pitch of the inning, Castillo returns to his bread and butter. His changeup floats in at 87.2 MPH, over 10 MPH slower than what Moran just saw. It’s his best pitch, but Moran is no slouch at the plate. He swings and makes contact, hitting the very top of the ball. They say that baseball is a game of inches, but for this pitch, it’s a game of centimeters. If Castillo’s pitch were any higher, Moran would have sent a hard hit line drive into left field, likely falling for a base hit. Instead, the well-thrown changeup induces a ground ball, to Mike Moustakas, who throws to Votto for the third out.
La Piedra has thrown a perfect inning.
Three Up Three Down
Luis Castillo is a very talented pitcher. Over the first inning, he threw thirteen pitches, with eleven of them being counted as strikes. Only two pitches resulted in the ball being put in play, and both never left the infield. Castillo also struck out Difo on three straight pitches. The Reds would go on to win this game by a wide margin, with Castillo throwing seven scoreless frames.
Sometimes, it’s easy to take things that you have for granted, but let’s all take a moment to appreciate Luis Castillo. Reds fans have had to endure some terrible pitching over recent years, and we will have to endure it again in the future. Right now, though, Cincinnati has a fun star that gives the Reds a solid chance to win every time he’s on the mound. As for me, I’m going to watch and enjoy every pitch.
Like I said, I’m a sucker for good pitching.
Featured image: Nick Tre. Smith (Icon Sportswire)
Nice analysis. However, I ponder whether Castillo will ever be a true ace because he seems to lack the tenacity of say, Sonny Gray. Certainly has the talent of an ace, but perhaps not the mentality – Your thoughts?
Thanks for the comment! I’m glad you enjoyed the piece.
Man, you’ve got to love Gray’s tenacity when he’s on the mound. He takes his craft so seriously, which I really admire. Getting him back in the rotation is a big step forward for the team. I want to break down one of his innings in the near future.
To be honest, it’s difficult for me to judge Castillo’s mentality. From my point of view on the couch, it does seem like he can get distracted and can lose focus sometimes. The broadcasters comment on this too. It very well could be holding him back, but it’s difficult for me to judge when all I have to go by is what I see on the field.
From a numbers perspective, his most obvious weakness is his fastball spin rate. For as fast as he can throw it, batters make contact fairly often. If he can improve his spin rate, not only will he achieve more whiffs, but the vertical drop on his changeup will be even more pronounced. I’m curious to see what he could achieve over an entire season if he improved that aspect of his game.