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It seems that every year around this time, we start to dissect what Joey Votto is doing differently at the plate. Last year, he went with a contact-heavy approach that helped him limit strikeouts but sapped his ability to hit the ball hard. When that didn’t work, he made a midseason adjustment to unlock more power, something he has carried over into 2021.
As you probably know, Votto was benched for three games last August. He re-entered the starting lineup on August 29 with a new batting stance and a bigger leg kick, ditching the crouched approach in favor of standing upright.
It helped turn his season around, as he hit the ball much harder down the stretch run as the Reds snuck into the postseason.
Votto told reporters during spring training that he wanted to feel more “dangerous” at the plate, meaning he wanted to hit for more power even if it came at the expense of more strikeouts. That’s meant carrying over the same stance he used earlier in his career and readopted last August. And so far, he’s continued to hit the ball hard.
In his first eight games and 35 plate appearances, he ranks in the 67th percentile in average exit velocity (91.5 mph). His maximum exit velocity (113.5) is in the 95th percentile. His hard-hit rate is a bit behind in the 42nd percentile (40.0%). His expected batting average (xBA) and expected slugging percentage (xSLG) rank in the 63th and 61st percentiles. Although he conceded he might strike out more with his new approach, Votto hasn’t done that much either. His 11.4% strikeout rate ranks in the 90th percentile.
In theory, that should produce numbers a bit above average, right? Not for Votto.
He’s hitting .176/.200/.176 with no extra-base hits thus far. That’s a 4 wRC+, meaning he’s been 96% worse than the league average hitter. It’s a classic small-sample, early-season stat line — not exactly worth panicking over. As the table at the top of this post shows, Votto wasn’t hitting the ball hard at all when he was slumping to begin last season. He is hitting the ball hard so far in 2021, but the results haven’t come.
Some of that is just rotten luck. Votto has 12 batted balls classified as “hard hit” by Statcast. That’s any ball hit at a 95+ mph exit velocity. Only three of those have gone for hits. You may think “oh, a .250 average isn’t so bad.” And it isn’t terrible. But consider that hard-hit balls have gone for a .534 BA and .528 xBA since 2015. Votto has a .530 xBA on those hard hits this season.
Just seven hitters have made more outs on hard-hit balls this season than Votto:
- Kyle Seager (12)
- Jose Altuve (11)
- Tommy Pham (11)
- Kyle Tucker (11)
- Manny Machado (10)
- Marcus Semien (10)
- Corey Seager (10)
- Joey Votto (9)
- Ozzie Albies (9)
- Charlie Blackmon (9)
This is borne out in the expected stats as well:
- Votto’s xBA is .278. His actual batting average is .176. The .102 gap is the 10th-largest among hitters with 30+ plate appearances.
- His xSLG is .470. His actual SLG is .176. That’s the fifth-largest gap in baseball.
- His expected weighted on base average is .325. His actual wOBA is .172. The fifth-largest discrepancy in the league.
Remember, these numbers are based on real-life, previous outcomes. They aren’t just an estimation. Each batted ball is assigned an xBA or xSLG based on how often balls hit with the same exit velocity and launch angle have become hits since Statcast was implemented league-wide in 2015.
And if you want more evidence that Votto hasn’t had great luck, he currently has a .200 batting average on balls in play.
Here’s an example of the shift hurting Votto. This ball had a .937 xBA.
Here, he crushes a high fastball (100.8 mph exit velocity, .763 xBA) and sends it 406 feet to center field, only for it to find the center fielder’s glove.
Part of Votto’s issue is that he’s had some trouble elevating the ball. Of his 30 batted balls, 14 have been grounders, giving him a GB% over six points higher than his career average (40.6%). Meanwhile, Votto’s fly ball rate (26.7%) is seven points below his career average (33.8%). If he continues to make good contact and can get the ball in the air more, the hits should start coming.
Another area worth touching on is Votto’s walk rate. He has only one walk in 35 plate appearances, a truly bizarre stat for a player who is the pinnacle of plate discipline. Will part of Votto’s new approach mean taking fewer walks? Maybe.
He’s certainly been more aggressive, especially early in the count. Votto is seeing 3.9 pitches per plate appearance, a bit below his career average (4.1). He’s also swinging at 48.5% of pitches he sees, quite a bit more than usual (41.6%). That includes swinging at more pitches outside the strike zone (26.0%) than he has in his career (21.5%). Where the aggressiveness really shows up, though, is within the strike zone. His zone swing rate is 78.0%, nearly 10 points higher than his career average (68.5%). There’s little doubt that Votto’s walk rate will come up as time goes on, but it’s clear he’s sacrificed some of his patience in the name of harder contact early in the season.
A quick look at Votto’s stat line so far may elicit concerns about a further decline from the former MVP. But that ignores important data points. His change in approach has generated harder contact, just as it did last year. The results just haven’t been there yet. Perhaps the lack of a full spring training is playing a role, too. Votto played in only four spring games before he tested positive for COVID-19. When he returned, he only played three games before starting on Opening Day and in every game since.
We can debate whether Votto should still be hitting third in the Reds’ lineup. But one thing is certain: if he continues to hit the ball hard, the singles, doubles, and homers will come.
Featured Photo: Keith Gillett (Icon Sportswire)
