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Today, the Reds placed Michael Lorenzen on the 60-day IL. He will be out until at least June. His loss exacerbates the team’s biggest problem: pitching depth.
In 2012, the Washington Nationals shut down Stephen Strasburg, the young pitching phenom, before the playoffs. Strasburg had pitched fewer than 50 innings in 2011 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. The Nationals feared a large jump in innings could lead to another injury for their thoroughbred, so they capped him at about 160 in 2012.
In 2021, all pitchers will see a significant increase in innings, and no one knows what to expect. Human arms are brittle after all, and as such, pitching depth has become a real asset for contending teams.
The Reds lost their best starter (Trevor Bauer), best reliever (Raisel Iglesias), and another solid bullpen arm in Archie Bradley. Those roster spots have gone to guys who have been cut from other teams or struggled to stay healthy.
Carson Fulmer has ridden the waiver wire so often that he’s rarely had a chance to unpack his bags before he jumps back on the rail. The Houston Astros gave up on Cionel Perez and his nasty slider after he walked everyone who neared the batter’s box.
Sean Doolittle has regained some velocity, but at 34, it’s unclear what kind of pitcher he’ll be. The early results aren’t kind: Doolittle has allowed an exit velocity of over 98 MPH so far.
The Reds got Cam Bedrosian on a minor league deal. While Bedrosian has a decent track record, no one was clamoring for his services.
The list goes on. Each of these guys have talented arms, and with some Derek Johnson and Kyle Boddy magic, they may end up as assets. But there are so many question marks. It’s no wonder that early in Spring Training, David Bell expressed a desire to keep Tejay Antone in the bullpen. Down there, it’s Amir Garrett, Lucas Sims, and in DJ we trust.
Lorenzen was key to the Reds plans.
He was the team’s best reliever in 2019, pitching over 16 innings more than the next reliever. That year, he had the bullpen’s best ERA and was second in xERA and FIP.
After a rough start in 2020, Lorenzen was the Reds best pitcher down the stretch, save Trevor Bauer. And much of that work came in extended outings against playoff teams: the White Sox, Twins, and Braves. Under Derek Johnson, Lorenzen’s Whiff% rose from around 16% in 2018 to 31% in 2019 and 35% in 2020. For reference, Antone’s Whiff% was 34% in 2020. Luis Castillo’s was 33%.
Lorenzen pitched so well that the Reds gave him a rotation spot. His emergence allowed the Reds to put Antone in the pen to stabilize a shaky unit.
Lorenzen’s injury ruins all that, stretching an already thin pitching staff even thinner.
The loss has ripple effects for the whole team. The Reds must decide between Antone bracing the pen or putting him in the rotation to soak up more innings. The rotation alternative seems to be Jeff Hoffman, a guy with a career ERA over 6 who was worse away from Coors Field than he was in it, at least according to xFIP.
Regardless of what they do with Antone, they will create another question mark, either in the pen or the rotation. And when another key pitcher gets injured, the Reds will have to plug another hole in the dam with some questionable adhesive. With much more stress on the pitching staff, it’s not hard to see the dam breaking.
