Should Nick Senzel bat leadoff?

When David Bell turned in the Reds lineup card yesterday, he had written Nick Senzel’s name for the leadoff spot. It wasn’t the first time Bell had put the 25-year-old outfielder at the top. Senzel lead off in 65 of the 104 games he played in 2019. In 2020, Bell cut back on that practice, having Senzel bat first only three times. However, in the first postseason game against Atlanta, Bell put Senzel at the top of the lineup. Atlanta was starting left-hander Max Fried. Senzel went 2-for-4.

Bell’s lineup yesterday raises the issue of whether Senzel should be in the leadoff spot. Three scenarios are in play:

1. Senzel leads off every game
2. Jesse Winker leads off every game
3. Senzel leads off against LHP, Winker against RHP

Senzel’s 2021 results

Prior to yesterday’s game, Nick Senzel hadn’t had much success at the plate in terms of results. He was batting .217, which is well below league batting average. Senzel had walked 11.8% of the time, which was good compared to the league average rate of 7.9%. In terms of power, his ISO was .051. That’s terrible. Billy Hamilton terrible. In fact, Billy Hamilton never finished a season with an ISO that low. Nick Senzel had two doubles to show for his 68 plate appearances, no triples and no home runs.

To summarize Senzel’s results in the three batting skills:

• Hit Skill – Poor
• On-Base – Excellent
• Power – Awful

But evaluating Senzel’s record is more complicated than that.

Senzel’s 2021 hitting

Nick Senzel has been unlucky in several respects. Senzel’s BABIP is .240. His expected batting average (xBA) based on his contact quality was .287, far above league batting average (.232). Senzel has been unlucky on balls hit with power. His xISO (what his isolated power should be with average luck, defense and park dimensions) is .193. That’s well above league average of .158. Senzel’s average exit velocity is in the 55th percentile. His hard-hit rate is 40% (average 35.2%).

Senzel’s strikeout rate is 13.9%, again considerably better than the league’s 22.5% average.

Put all that together. While Nick Senzel’s wOBA (weighted value for all his at bats) is .253, if you look at his contact quality and neutralize the luck and defense, it’s .359. League average is .313.

That means that while Nick Senzel’s “results” have been well below average, he’s swung the bat and hit the ball way above average. The latter is a better indicator of his results going forward. 

Yesterday, Nick Senzel got four hits. Three were off Clayton Kershaw. Two of those were hard line drives. It was the first time a Reds batter had four hits in a game since Freddy Galvis (!!) did it in August 2019. Four-hit games are less common than you think.

So what to make of all this?

Nick Senzel has hit the ball well enough to be the Reds leadoff hitter.

Bell says he wants more runners on base for Jesse Winker and Nick Castellanos. If balls start falling in as they should for Senzel and if he keeps his walk-rate up, the on-base percentage will be fine. He’ll hit for power. Senzel’s leadoff hitting won’t be hollow, like Shogo Akiyama’s might be.

Much is made of the “more runners on base” angle. But another major consideration is how a lineup adjustment changes who gets the at bats. Each spot in the batting order bats last approximately 18 times in a 162-game season. So moving down one spot in the order means 18 fewer plate appearances over a season. 

Assume the line when Nick Senzel is not leading off is:

1. Winker
2. Castellanos
3. Votto
4. Suarez
5. Moustakas
6. Senzel

When Nick Senzel leads off, the first five names move down one slot. That means 18 fewer plate appearances for Jesse Winker, 18 fewer for Castellanos, 18 fewer for Votto, etc. Meanwhile, moving Senzel up five spots gives him 90 (!) more plate appearances. 

So the calculation for whether Senzel should lead off is more than just who’s on base. It’s who gets how many at bats. 90 plate appearances are at stake.

What about Senzel’s left-right split?

Senzel has had a platoon split. It isn’t huge, but it isn’t close to zero, either. If you take all the at bats across his major league career, Senzel’s wRC+ against left-handed pitchers is 94, but just 77 against right-handed pitchers. 

One way to balance these pluses and minuses would be to have Nick Senzel bat leadoff against left-handed starters, like David Bell had him do yesterday and in the 2020 postseason. But keep Jesse Winker in the leadoff spot against right-handed starters. The irony with that solution is that the “more runners on base for Winker” would occur against left-handed pitchers, which is Jesse Winker’s weaker side.

But put the “more runners on base” this way. There would be more for Nick Castellanos and Joey Votto, too. Senzel-Winker in the top two spots would put a good bat ahead of Votto and Castellanos no matter what hand the pitcher uses.

One final word

There is virtue in having a leadoff hitter who hits for power. Shin-Soo Choo scored 107 runs for the Reds in 2013 in part because he drove himself in 21 times with home runs. The strategy of putting a fast guy in the leadoff spot so he can create “havoc” on the bases has been overrun, so to speak, by the way the game has changed. For better or worse, home runs now rule the day and score the runs. Havoc isn’t worth the risk, if it ever was. Front offices and managers have the data that casts doubt on the running game, which is why stolen bases are at an all time low.

Nick Senzel has power. He hit 12 home runs in 2019 in 400 plate appearances at age 23. Senzel will hit his share of home runs and other extra-base hits in the leadoff spot. Some of those hits will come with runners on base. That’s an important aspect of whether or not to give him those extra 90 plate appearances. 

It’s impossible to say now whether it would be a good decision to move Nick Senzel to the leadoff spot. His progress at the plate will determine that. The better he hits, the stronger the case. Right now, it looks like a close call, especially against right-handed pitchers. 

Photo: Brian Rothmuller (Icon Sportswire)