Tyler Mahle, Sandy Koufax and why the Reds should make Mahle an offer he can’t refuse

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The Dodgers moved from Brooklyn to Los Angeles in 1958. But it wasn’t until 1962 when they christened beautiful Dodger Stadium in Chavez Ravine. Their Opening Day opponent in ’62 was the defending National League champion Cincinnati Reds. With Vin Scully, who had already been calling Dodger games for 12 seasons, on the mic, the Reds ruined the home team’s big day behind the bats of Vada Pinson, Wally Post and Tommy Harper. 

That June, future Hall of Fame pitcher Sandy Koufax took advantage of the park’s pitcher-friendly dimensions to throw the first of his four no-hitters. Koufax, who was 26, wouldn’t win the Cy Young award until the next season when he threw 11 shutouts and was also voted the league MVP. 

Tonight, another 26-year-old will take the mound at Dodger Stadium. Tyler Mahle, who went to high school less than an hour away, will make his fifth start of the 2021 season for the Reds. To be clear, I’m not saying Mahle is Koufax. But the way  the young Reds pitcher has performed in 2021, he’s got a good shot at holding his own against one of the best lineups in baseball. 

That’s because Tyler Mahle has been a top-10 starter in MLB in 2021. 

Note the language. Has been. So far. That construction is in careful deference to small samples. Saying Mahle has been top-10 is different from saying he is top-10 starter. We can’t say what Tyler Mahle is — great or not — for a while. But in 2021, Tyler Mahle has been terrific. 

Mahle’s top-10 start to 2021

Mahle ranks in the top-10 among MLB starters in xwOBA, xERA, xBA and K%. In the categories where he’s not top-1o, you’ll usually find he’s in the top 20. Check out this list, stuffed with former Cy Young winners. It’s the top 10 MLB starters based on strikeout rate:

1. Jacob deGrom (49.5%)
2. Corbin Burnes (47.1%)
3. Gerrit Cole (42%)
4. Freddy Peralta (40%)
5. Joe Musgrove (39.8%)
6. Tyler Glasnow (39.7%)
7. Shane Bieber (39.3%)
8. TYLER MAHLE (38.8%)
9. Trevor Bauer (37.8%)
10. Max Scherzer (36.9%)

That’s good company for Mahle. It was a different era, of course, but Sandy Koufax struck out 29% of the batters he faced as a 26-year-old, the second-highest rate of his career.

Back to 2021, when you include contact quality and walks (xwOBA), Mahle still makes the top 10:

1. Corbin Burnes (.162)
2. Jacob deGrom (.189)
3. Gerrit Cole (.198)
4. Lance Lynn (.215)
5. Tyler Glasnow (.226)
6. Trevor Bauer (.229)
7. Brandon Woodruff (.236)
8. TYLER MAHLE (.242)
9. Nathan Eovaldi (.243)
10. Shane Bieber (.256)

Before the season started, analysts pegged Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray as the 1A-1B punch at the top of the Reds rotation. Tyler Mahle’s appearance on these lists, ahead of Castillo and Gray, might have you wondering whether it’s a fluke. So let’s look under the hood at what’s driving Mahle’s improvement to figure out how durable it might be. 

Mahle’s fastball spin rate

The technology didn’t exist to measure baseball spin rates in Sandy Koufax’s day, let alone post them in real time. It’s only been available to the public for a couple years. But Koufax knew a thing or two about high fastballs. 

So does Tyler Mahle. Helped by a big jump in his fastball spin rate, Mahle’s heater has been more dominant than ever in 2021. 

Mahle’s fastball spin is now in the 88th percentile among major league pitchers. But he’s not only increased his fastball spin rate, Mahle throws it with 100% active spin. Some pitchers pollute their fastball’s effectiveness with a bit of side spin. Mahle has none of that. Every bit of spin he generates works toward his goal. 

Two years ago, the spin rate on Mahle’s heater languished in the 2100-2150 rpm range. That’s OK if you’re trying to throw a fastball low, to drop in the zone. Pitchers can be effective that way. But Mahle has always been a guy who wanted to throw his fastball up. This chart shows where he threw it back in 2019, with the low spin. 

Why does spin matter with a fastball? Fastball spin is backspin. The more backspin on a pitched baseball the less it drops. Fastball spin keeps it higher in the zone than the batter expects. Hitters swing under and miss or pop it up. Check out the change in Mahle’s average vertical break by season.

Note the Y-axis is a descending negative number. That means Mahle’s fastball has five fewer inches of vertical drop in 2021 compared to 2018 and 2019. Less vertical drop is the point. Unsure how much difference a five-inch improvement makes? A major league baseball is just under 3 inches in diameter.

Here are Mahle 2021 fastballs that demonstrate this effect. First, a right-handed hitter whiffs, swinging below the pitch.

Here, a left-handed hitter swings under and pops it up.

Mahle has proof of concept. More spin. More swings and misses. More hitting under. More pop-ups and fly balls. 

Opponents have batted .125 against Mahle’s fastball in 2021 compared with .260 in 2019. He’s given up a slugging rate of just .225 on his #1 compared to .438 two years ago.

A harder breaking ball 

A second factor behind Tyler Mahle’s emergence is the development of a harder breaking pitch.

Mahle has always been somewhat of a 2-pitch pitcher. He’s thrown his fastball 55-65% of his pitches. But the secondary pitch he’s used 25-35% of the time has varied in significant ways during Mahle’s major league career.

When Mahle first came up in 2017, his second pitch was a slider that he threw an average of 83-84 mph. Mahle continued with that kind of slider as his #2 pitch in 2018. But in 2019, Mahle abandoned it for a curveball that he threw only 80 mph. That detour lasted for one year. Mahle returned to his slider last season and has continued to use it as his secondary pitch this year.

But it’s not the same as before. Mahle has sped up his slider and now throws it ~87 mph.

This chart is informative in two ways. First, the graph is discontinuous, showing a gap for the 2019 season worthy of a Super Mario Bros. jump. No data point because of no sliders. Second, it demonstrates the MPH bounce from 2017-2018 to 2020-2021. Results? Batters are hitting .150 against Mahle’s slider this year and hit .180 last year. Compare that to 2018 when batters smoked his slider for a .304 batting average. That’s probably why he gave it up.

We have highlights. Here Mahle works the slider away from right-handed Paul Goldschmidt.

Mahle’s slider is an equal opportunity destroyer. Watch him keep it down on lefty David Peralta.

Don’t forget the splitter

Tyler Mahle’s third pitch deserves a brief mention. He throws a split-finger fastball about 11-12% of his pitches. It comes in at 87.6 mph, about the same as his slider, but the splitter has a significant horizontal break away from left-handed hitters relative to the slider. Mahle’s splitter is specialty pitch to use against left-handed batters. Of the 42 times he’s thrown it in 2021, 41 have been versus lefties. 

Here’s a good example of how Mahle uses the splitter down and away against left-handed Kole Calhoun.

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A deal for both sides

Tyler Mahle is playing in his first year with the right to arbitration. That means the 6’3″ right-hander is under Reds control for two more seasons and could become a free agent in 2024. The Reds should try to work out a deal to extend Mahle’s time with the club. 

Mahle is proving his worth as a long-term investment and becoming a candidate for a lucrative contract when he hits free agency. On the other hand, with three years before he can shop around, the standard pitcher injury concern is ever-present. Players at his career stage often put great value on security they can gain from a guaranteed contract, even if it delays their bigger payday by a year or two. 

Looking at the other side of the deal, the Castellini family could benefit from a statement showing Reds fans it’s still committed to putting a winning team on the field. Signing Mahle to an extension would be unambiguous in conveying that message. 

The end-game would be a deal that guarantees Mahle’s salary for his arbitration years of 2022 and 2023 and buys out one or two seasons of his free agency. The Reds signed a similar extension with Johnny Cueto. In January 2011, the Reds and Cueto agreed to a four-year $27 million deal that covered his three arbitration seasons and one year of free agency. The agreement also gave the Reds a $10 million team option for 2015, which they exercised with enthusiasm. 

Ownership claiming it can’t measure the attendance fallout from the pandemic won’t be credible much longer, if it ever was. Ballpark revenues in 2021 may not be as high as they would have been prior to the pandemic. But the uncertainty is vanishing as fans have been allowed back. We’ve already seen one announced increase in capacity percentage, with GABP allowed up to 40% starting April 30. Further, the financial burden of an extension for Mahle would be years out.  

Nor should the impending CBA create a pretext for ownership to duck new player contracts. Negotiations for the next baseball labor agreement have started. Even if the new deal adjusts service time rules, it’s hard to imagine changes that shorten team control that would affect players so close to the end as Mahle. Recent player extensions elsewhere, such as Francisco Lindor with the Mets, David Fletcher with the Angels, and Lance McCullers with the Astros, belie that concern as phony. 

If Tyler Mahle is interested, the Reds should get it done now. The price will go up with every superb start and as Mahle moves closer to free agency. 

Conclusion

Don’t buy the analytics behind Tyler Mahle’s scintillating 2021 start? Skeptical of new-fangled emphasis on spin rate? Then consider this claim authored by renowned sabermetrician, Ernie Banks (yes, Mr. Cub): 

“Sandy’s curve had a lot more spin than anybody else’s. It spun like a fastball coming out of his hand. And he had the fastball of a pure strikeout pitcher. Most of the time we knew what was coming, but it didn’t matter. You still couldn’t hit him.”

Swing and miss didn’t lie then and doesn’t lie now. 

Again, I’m not claiming Tyler Mahle is comparable to one of the greatest. But his recent receipts are on display. Mahle’s improved fundamentals lend credence to an emergence that is no fluke. Pitchers can make a jump at age 26. That’s when Sandy Koufax is said to have begun to fulfill the promise that landed him in Cooperstown.

Tyler Mahle would understand your doubts. He’s been underestimated by analysts, fans and even his own front office. In the 2020 offseason (16 months ago), the Reds felt it necessary to replace Mahle in the rotation with Wade Miley.

Chances are, Tyler Mahle won’t end the 2021 season as a top-10 pitcher. We’re not even a month into it. Sustained health is a dice roll for any pitcher. Elbow arthritis from snapping off those curves forced a player as talented as Koufax to retire at age 30. But watch as Mahle steps onto Koufax’s mound tonight. The young right-hander is putting together quite a season. 

Photo: Rick Ulreich (Icon Sportswire)