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Sonny Gray threw a simulated game over the weekend that went well and he is expected to return to the rotation this week. Based on the standard timeline of pitching every five days, Gray would be lined up to pitch again on Friday against the Cleveland Indians at GABP. While that lines up with Jeff Hoffman’s next scheduled start, the decision on whose spot Gray takes in the rotation isn’t quite that easy. The choice comes down to two pitchers: José De León and Jeff Hoffman. While the sample sizes are still quite small, let’s take a look at how the pair have performed in 2021.
Jeff Hoffman
Hoffman has made two starts, throwing 9 2/3 innings, allowing four runs on nine hits, walking three and striking out eight. In that small sample size, Hoffman has posted a 3.86 ERA, 3.79 FIP, 4.36 SIERA, and 5.00 xERA. He has also posted a 21.1% strikeout rate, a mark slightly below league average, to go with a slightly better than average 7.9% walk rate. He’s also posted a 26.4% CSW%, which measures all called strikes plus whiffs as a percentage of total pitches.
When hitters make contact, they are making solid contact, as his .428 xwOBAcon, 40.7% hard hit rate, and 89.6 mph average exit velocity all rank worse than the league average. Hoffman has gotten a bit lucky. His .257 opponent batting average has outperformed his .288 xBA. The same is true with wOBA, as his .315 actual mark has significantly outperformed his .359 xwOBA.
José De León
De León has also made two starts, throwing 9 1/3 innings, allowing eight runs on 11 hits, including 4 home runs. He has walked five and struck out 18. In those two starts, De León posted a 7.71 ERA, and 6.47 FIP, which initially looks rough. His 4.90 xERA was very comparable to Hoffman’s 5.00 mark however. Additionally, his 2.80 SIERA paints a much better picture of his two starts. Another factor to consider is xFIP, which neutralizes home run rate, as his 2.62 xFIP is quite impressive.
Again, much like with Hoffman, when hitters make contact against De León, they are making quality contact. His .569 xwOBAcon and 27.3% barrel rate rank among the worst in the league, though his hard hit rate of 40.9% almost perfectly mirrors Hoffman.
The key for De León has been limiting the amount of contact hitters have made, as his 40% strikeout rate and 35.3% CSW% each rank among the best in the league. His walk rate is a bit high at 11.1%. Unlike Hoffman, his expected statistics indicate he may have gotten a bit unlucky. He has allowed hitters to bat .275 against him, though with just a .230 xBA. His .356 xwOBA is also much better than his actual .414 wOBA, and again his xwOBA is quite similar to Hoffman’s.
The Decision
While not an easy decision, with a full analysis of the numbers it seems like De León should be the one to stick in the rotation for now. His strikeout rate is elite, and pitching coach Derek Johnson has made it clear he likes pitchers that strike out a lot of batters. De León’s downfall has been his control and command, leaving a few too many hittable pitches over the center of the plate. Still, De León could have also been impacted by some level of bad luck on batted balls, evidenced by his expected metrics as well as an unsustainably high 44.4% HR/FB rate. Given his proficiency for striking out hitters, De León should be given a chance to continue to prove his worth in the starting rotation, at least for now, while Hoffman should be headed back to the bullpen.
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Great story. I agree that De Leon should stay in the rotation for now, as there really is no comparison stuff-wise between him and Hoffman. When De Leon has it working — aka not leaving changeups middle-cut as we saw Sunday — he is a solid back of the rotation option. The ceiling is much higher for De Leon, and I would like to see how he progresses over a few more starts under the tutelage of DJ. Keep up the great work!
Great analysis, not sure if it matters or not to the decision, but since De Leon has an option, he seems less likely to go to the bullpen and more likely to go to AAA.
Since I think he and Perez are the only two realistic candidates with options, they’re both likely going back to AAA by the time Lorenzen’s healthy assuming that everyone else is healthy as well.
The options are absolutely a factor. But I don’t think it’s worth keeping Sal Romano on the roster over De León or Perez for example
Nice article! There are 4-5 Reds pitchers who probably feel like they are vulnerable to get bumped once Sonny Gray returns and later when Lorenzen returns.
Gray will bump at least one of Hoffman and DeLeon from the rotation. I say at least one as the Reds could elect to go to a 4-man rotation for the next two weeks based on scheduled days off. DeLeon’s stuff is filthy, but he has trouble harnessing it–this has been the theme of his professional career. Both his command and control must improve for long-term success.
So, is the odd man out in the pen? Bedrosion has been the poorest performer thus far, but has a lengthy track record that implies improvement is coming.
Fulmer and Romano are the two most likely to go, but Fulmer has performed well (with supporting underlying stats) and Romano appears to have made mechanical changes which have improved his control. He’s been HR prone, but otherwise has been very successful at limiting baserunners. Moreover, Romano’s OPS+ is better than either DeLeon or Hoffman as they’ve bounced between the majors and minors over the last several seasons. Neither Fulmer or Romano has options and I would expect either to be claimed if DFA which would weaken the Red’s depth very early in the season.
Frankly, I think this will come down to options as I don’t believe we’ve seen enough to really separate these pitchers with just 10 games of data.