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The Reds bats looked very different tonight than they had over the season against the Pirates, with Nick Senzel, Jesse Winker, and Eugenio Suarez accounting for all eight hits. Base running miscues combined with poor bullpen work turned what should have been a close game into an ugly 7-2 loss.
Offense
In the top of the first, Jesse Winker continued his hitting from last night by “beating the shift” with a 62.6 mph double off the end of the bat past third-base into left field. Mike Moustakas walked later in the inning, but both were ultimately stranded.
Nick Senzel began his three-hit night in the third with a hard-hit single to up the middle. However, with a 3-0 count to Winker, Senzel tried to steal second. With a fastball down the middle, Jacob Stallings gunned down Senzel at second for the first out of the inning. Two pitches later, Winker launched Brubaker’s Sinker 438 feet (107.9 mph) that ultimately found its way into the Allegheny River.
Cry me a river. pic.twitter.com/86ghSdpqBP
— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) May 11, 2021
The Reds bats went relatively quiet as they did not advance a runner past first base until the eighth inning when Senzel and Winker got the offense rolling again. Senzel laced a line drive down the line hitting the first-base bag for a single. Winker followed, going opposite field as well with a line-drive double down the left-field line. Senzel ran through J.R. House’s stop sign to score at home, but Stallings caught Winker as he tried to advance to third on the throw home. Instead of a man on second with no outs down two, the Reds had no one on with one out. A Castellanos strikeout and Moustakas fly out ended the eighth.
After a Naquin strikeout, Suarez logged an infield hit for his second single of the night before Barnhart and Farmer went down in order to end the game.
Pitching
Jeff Hoffman only lasted four innings tonight against the basement-dwelling Pirates giving up three earned with four strikeouts. The first started with back-to-back soft hits as Adam Frazier, and Bryan Reynolds threw their bats out while leaning on their front foot for a bloop single and double to shallow left. Reynolds’s double came off the bat at a measly 78.6 mph with an xBA of 0.060. Tucker Barnhart tried to backhand a curveball Hoffman had buried in the dirt that bounced away, scoring Frazier from third.
After a 1-2-3 second inning, Hoffman walked two but made it through the third unscathed. The fourth inning showcased Hoffman’s problems with hard contact so far this season. After inducing an Erik Gonzales groundout, Hoffman bounced a curveball that hit Ka’ai Tom. Kevin Newman followed with a triple off the base of the wall in left-center field, coming off the bat at 98.6 mph scoring Newman from first. Troy Stokes Jr. continued with another hard-hit (100.1 mph) on a single, making it 3-1. After striking out JT Brubaker, Hoffman got Frazier to ground out, ending the inning and his night.
Ryan Hendrix entered in the fifth and did not last the inning. Reynolds opened the inning with a five-pitch walk before Philip Evans scorched a 109.1 mph double to left-center, scoring Reynolds from first. Jacob Stallings flew out before Hendrix struck out Erik Gonzalez. Cionel Perez entered for the lefty on lefty matchup against Ka’ai Tom, inducing a lineout to end the inning. Perez, mixing his fastball and slider, put a zero up in the sixth allowing one walk.
Carson Fulmer kept the score at 4-1 in the seventh, only allowing a walk. Ka’ai Tom opened the eighth with a single to right. A ground ball to Kyle Farmer at short could not be turned for a double play leaving a man on first with one out. Stokes Jr. followed with a double (103.1 mph) to left field scoring Kevin Newman from first. After a Ben Gamel flyout, Sean Doolittle came on in relief. Frazier greeted him with a home run right over the right-field fence (102.8 mph 389 ft.), making the score 7-2.
Stats
Hardest-Hit Balls
- Jesse Winker: 107.9 mph | Home run in 3rd inning
- Kyle Farmer: 102.5 mph | Groundout in 5th inning
- Jesse Winker: 102.5mph | Double in 8th inning
Unluckiest Out of the Day
- Tyler Stephenson: .420 xBA | Lineout in 7th inning
Highest Velocities By Pitcher
- Jeff Hoffman: 95.1 mph
- Ryan Hendrix: 96.5 mph
- Cionel Perez: 97.3 mph
- Carson Fulmer: 93.8 mph
- Sean Doolittle: 94.4 mph
Highest Pitch Spins
- Ryan Hendrix: 2,824 rpm | Slider
Most Pitch Movement
- Jeff Hoffman: 62 inches vertical movement | Curveball
Team Expected Batting Averages (xBA)
- Reds: .182
- Pirates: .268
What’s Next?
The Reds conclude the Pirates series with an afternoon game in Pittsburgh. First pitch is at 12:35 p.m. EST as Sonny Gray faces off against Trevor Cahill.
Featured Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire
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The 5th starter concerns written about yesterday are very real.
I’m glad that Senzel is hitting and I believe he’s going to start hitting for power. But someone has to put the brakes on him (and I don’t trust Bell to do that).
He’s now been caught stealing 5 times already this season, which is ridiculous.
His running with Winker at bat made no sense at a several levels. It was a 3-0 count. Why run from first on a 3-0 count ? There’s a good chance the hitter will walk. And the usual 3-0 pitch is a fastball down the middle that the hitter takes, an excellent scenario for the catcher to throw him out. And in any case why try to scratch out a single run with no one out and Winker at bat and Castellanos up next ?
I also question having Senzel run. In his short career his success percentage is 63% which is not good. Given that Winker and Castellanos are the best hitters in the lineup I would not have the runner attempt unless they were at 80% or better. At 63% the expected value of Senzel stealing has to be negative. Senzel is not exactly Eric Davis who had an 84% success percentage.
I just looked at Senzel’s minor league record and his percentage was 73%. Unless Jon Lester prime is on the mound perhaps he should stay put at first.
Is there a stat somewhere to count team TOOTBLANs? Seems like the Reds give up 2-3 outs per game on the bags.
To partially answer my own question, per MLB.com: The Reds have been caught stealing 7 times, a tie for 6th highest in baseball. Still don’t know how to count stupid outs like Winker’s last night.