2023 Opponent Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates

by — March 29, 2023 in Opponent Previews

At long last, the offseason is over. The 2023 season kicks off on Thursday, and as the Reds celebrate the 20th anniversary of Great American Ball Park, they’ll host the same team they did when the stadium opened in 2003. The Pirates will visit the Queen City to start the year in a matchup of rebuilding teams that were among the worst in baseball last season.

Cincinnati went 7-12 against Pittsburgh last season as both teams finished a dreadful 62-100. However, the Pirates “won” the tiebreaker (prior season winning percentage) and wound up with better draft lottery odds. As luck would have it, the Pirates ended up with the #1 overall pick in the 2023 draft while the Reds ended up at #7.

With all MLB teams now playing each other every year, teams will see less of their division rivals moving forward. But the Reds and Pirates will still face one another 13 times in 2023, so let’s get to know the first NL Central foe of the year, led by fourth-year manager Derek Shelton.

Offseason

It was a fairly active offseason for the Pirates, at least compared to the standard they set in previous years. Pittsburgh spent just over $30 million on veteran free agents and made a few minor trades.

Trade rumors continued to swirl around their 28-year-old star player, outfielder Bryan Reynolds, after the team lowballed him in insulting fashion during contract extension talks. However, the latest report from the New York Post’s Jon Heyman indicates that the two sides are back at the negotiating table trying to work out an extension before Opening Day.

Additions
  • OF/DH Andrew McCutchen (free agent)
  • SP Rich Hill (free agent)
  • 1B/DH Carlos Santana (free agent)
  • C Austin Hedges (free agent)
  • SP Vince Velasquez (free agent)
  • RP Jarlin Garcia (free agent)
  • 1B Ji-Man Choi (trade with Rays)
  • 1B/OF Connor Joe (trade with Rockies)
  • RP Dauri Moreta (trade with Reds)
  • RP Jose Hernandez (Rule 5 draft)
Subtractions
  • OF Ben Gamel (free agent; signed with Rays)
  • C Roberto Perez (free agent; signed with Giants)
  • SS Kevin Newman (traded to Reds)
  • UTIL Hoy Park (DFA’d, traded to Red Sox)
  • IF Diego Castillo (DFA’d, traded to Diamondbacks)
  • SP Bryse Wilson (DFA’d, traded to Brewers)
  • SP Zach Thompson (DFA’d, traded to Blue Jays)
  • IF Michael Chavis (DFA’d, signed with Nationals)
  • RP Manny Bañuelos (non-tendered)
Projected Position Players

(2022 stats; *indicates Triple-A numbers)

Unsurprisingly, the Pirates were one of the league’s worst offenses in 2022. They scored the second-fewest runs in the National League and had the worst team batting average, on-base percentage, strikeout rate, wOBA, and wRC+ (tied with the Reds). Of the 19 Pittsburgh players to get at least 100 plate appearances last year, 14 were below-average hitters by wRC+. However, 12 of those hitters are either out of the organization or back in the minor leagues after the organization’s offseason acquisitions.

Minus the catching situation, the Pirates’ 2023 offense looks halfway respectable on paper. Regardless of his contract situation, Reynolds is still the team’s star. He should have some help this year, though, with the veteran additions of Ji-Man Choi, Andrew McCutchen, and Carlos Santana. McCutchen and Santana are on the downswing of their careers, but both can still be productive when healthy. If the hard-hitting Oneil Cruz can take a step forward, Ke’Bryan Hayes can rediscover his rookie form at the plate and hit the ball in the air more, and Jack Suwinski can again be serviceable, Pittsburgh could have a decent lineup.

The club also acquired Connor Joe, a former Rule 5 pick by the Reds, from the Rockies to fill a utility role. Top-20 organizational prospects Ji-Hwan Bae and Canaan Smith-Njigba — yes, the older brother of Ohio State wide receiver and NFL prospect Jaxon Smith-Njigba — have also made the Opening Day roster and will come off the bench. A contact-first hitter, Bae will also serve in a utility role; Smith-Njigba, who hits the ball hard but struggles to elevate it, should see plenty of time in right field on days when McCutchen serves as the DH.

Behind the plate, the Pirates may have the worst offensive catching tandem in the league. But Austin Hedges and Jason Delay are both strong defensively. Help could be on the way soon in the form of top prospect Endy Rodriguez, who also plays second base and outfield. Ranked the #22 prospect in the game by Baseball America, Rodriguez will start the season in Triple-A.

Projected Pitchers

(2022 stats; *Triple-A; **Double-A)

The Pirates didn’t have a strong pitching staff in 2022, either. But there was at least some improvement from 2021, particularly in the starting rotation. The club signed Jose Quintana to a one-year deal and he pitched well enough to become a trade chip. Mitch Keller, a former top prospect and this year’s Opening Day starter, also took a step forward in his second full big-league season by increasing his velocity, cutting down his walks, and raising his ground-ball rate significantly. J.T. Brubaker, who will start on the injured list this season, was also a steady source of innings. The two weakest links from last year’s rotation, Bryse Wilson and Zach Thompson, are no longer in the organization.

Pittsburgh acquired Rich Hill and Vince Velasquez during the offseason to be their inning-eating veterans. Roansy Contreras, the team’s current top pitching prospect, also returns to the rotation as he enters his first full season as an MLB starter in 2023. Johan Oviedo, who was acquired from the Cardinals in the Quintana trade, will serve as the fifth starter after a strong showing in his Pirates debut. Some minor-league names to note are Luis Ortiz, Quinn Priester, and Mike Burrows, all top-10 prospects in the organization who could make their MLB debuts this summer.

The bullpen will be led by David Bednar, who was the Pirates’ lone all-star last year and is fresh off an appearance in the World Baseball Classic with Team USA. Similar to the Reds bullpen, though, there aren’t a lot of proven options. The Pirates were planning for free-agent signing Jarlin Garcia to be their go-to lefty reliever, but he’ll begin the year on the IL due to a biceps issue. Non-roster invitee Rob Zastryzny and Rule 5 pick Jose Hernandez will be the team’s southpaw relievers. The team will hope Duane Underwood Jr. can turn his strong peripherals into better results. Wil Crowe and Chase De Jong also return to the bullpen, while ex-Red Dauri Moreta should get a more extended chance to prove himself as an MLB reliever in 2023.

Injury Report
  • SP J.T. Brubaker (elbow discomfort)
  • RP Jarlin Garcia (biceps discomfort)
  • RP Robert Stephenson (elbow discomfort)
W-L Projections
  • FanGraphs: 73-89 (4th in NL Central)
  • PECOTA: 72-90 (4th in NL Central)
  • ZiPS: 68-94 (5th in NL Central)
  • FiveThirtyEight: 71-91 (4th in NL Central)

The Pirates project to be better than last year as they try to avoid their third straight 100-loss season. Per FiveThirtyEight, only five teams added more net WAR to their rosters during the offseason. However, it was just a net gain of 3.8 wins, hardly enough to put the Pirates in contention. There is some help on the way — Pittsburgh has the 11th-ranked farm system, according to Baseball America, and they’ll add to their talent pool with the first overall pick in the draft, likely to be LSU star outfielder Dylan Crews. But the Pirates are probably heading for their fifth straight losing season. The big question is whether they can avoid finishing in last place in the NL Central for the fourth time in five years.

Featured Image: Ken Mattison

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Matt Wilkes

Matt Wilkes got hooked on Reds baseball after attending his first game in Cinergy Field at 6 years old, and he hasn’t looked back. As a kid, he was often found imitating his favorite players — Ken Griffey Jr., Adam Dunn, Sean Casey, and Austin Kearns — in the backyard. When he finally went inside, he was leading the Reds to 162-0 seasons in MVP Baseball 2005 or keeping stats for whatever game was on TV. He started writing about baseball in 2014 and has become fascinated by analytics and all the new data in the game. Matt is also a graduate of The Ohio State University and currently lives in Chicago. Follow him on Twitter at @_MattWilkes.

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