2023 Opponent Preview: Chicago Cubs

by — April 3, 2023 in Game/Series Preview

The Chicago Cubs arrive in Cincinnati after losing two out of three against the Milwaukee Brewers at the Friendly Confines. The Reds and Cubs will play three games, with the first two at night and the third a day game.

  • Monday, 6:40 pm
  • Tuesday, 6:40 pm
  • Wednesday, 12:35 pm

The Reds went 8-11 against the Cubs last year, as manager David Ross’ team finished third in the NL Central with a 74-88 record, 19 games out of first place. It was the Cubbies second consecutive losing season that followed making the postseason five times over the stretch of 2015-2020. They won the World Series in 2016. The core of players that produced those winning seasons has scattered throughout Major League Baseball through free agency and trades.

Offseason

The Cubs front office was busy this offseason, signing four position player starters, a starting pitcher and several key relievers in free agency. They increased payroll from $147 million to $188 million (the Reds are spending $82 million). Their biggest acquisition was former Atlanta shortstop Dansby Swanson, signing him to a 7-year, $177 million deal. They also inked starting pitcher Jameson Taillon to a 4-year, $68 million contract. Former NL MVP Cody Bellinger agreed to a one-year deal for $17.5 million. Smaller agreements were made with SP Drew Smyly (2/$19m), OF Trey Mancini (2/$14m) and old friend C Tucker Barnhart (2/$6.5m).

Additions
  • SS Dansby Swanson (free agent)
  • CF Cody Bellinger (free agent)
  • OF Trey Mancini (free agent)
  • 1B Eric Hosmer (free agent)
  • SP Jameson Taillon (free agent)
  • RP Michael Fulmer (free agent)
  • RP Brad Boxberger (free agent)
  • RF Miles Mastrobuoni (trade with Tampa Bay)
  • C Tucker Barnhart (free agent)
  • C/1B Luis Torrens (free agent)
  • 1B/3B Edwin Rios (free agent)
  • RP Julien Merryweather (waivers)
  • RP Jose Hernandez (Rule 5 draft)
Position Players

These stats are pre-season projections for FanGraphs.

The Cubs offense was in the bottom half last season, ranking 22nd out of 30 teams in runs scored and with a 98 wRC+ (average is 100). They had the 10th-highest strikeout rate and 11th-best walk rate. The Cubs bats ranked 18th in isolated power (ISO). They finished fourth in stolen bases, spread among many players. Most of those guys are still around. Nico Hoerner led them with 20.

Here’s their probable batting order:

  1. Nico Hoerner
  2. Dansby Swanson
  3. Ian Happ
  4. Cody Bellinger
  5. Trey Mancini
  6. Yan Gomes
  7. Eric Hosmer
  8. Patrick Wisdom
  9. Miles Mastrobuoni

Ian Happ must hate the new MLB schedule since he’ll only face Reds pitching 13 times this season. The former University of Cincinnati star has a career line of .290/.399/.638 against his college-town team. That’s a wRC+ of 170 over 333 plate appearances. The Cubs and Happ, who won the NL Gold Glove Award for left fielders, were unable to agree on a contract extension before the start of the season.

Dansby Swanson, who also won an NL Gold Glove in 2022, played for the World Series champs in Atlanta last year. Swanson cashed in on a career year both at bat and in the field, winning. The question for the Cubs is whether Swanson can follow up a career — and contract — year with a string of seasons worthy of $25+ million a year.

Cody Bellinger has fallen about as far as possible from his 2019 MVP season. Will a change of scenery from Los Angeles to Chicago help? Bellinger is a strong defender in center field, so he’ll provide value there. The Cubs should be strong up the middle with Swanson at short, Nico Hoerner at second and Bellinger patrolling center.

The Cubs signed two veteran catchers – Yan Gomes and Tucker Barnhart – to replace Willson Contreras who had been behind the plate for them since 2016. Contreras signed with the Cardinals as a free agent. Gomes and Barnhart won’t come close to replacing Contreras’ bat, but they do offer steady veteran help for the team’s young starters.

Pitchers

The stats are pre-season projections from FanGraphs except for GB% and xERA which are the pitcher’s numbers for 2022.

The Cubs rotation was below average last year, finishing 17th in ERA and 22nd in xERA. They ranked 21st in walks and 22nd in strikeouts.

Three pitchers return: Marcus Stroman, Justin  Steele and Drew Smyly. The first two project with better than average ERAs in 2023 while Smyly registers at a half-run over average. Steele is a young guy with a promising slider. Jameson Taillon comes over from the Yankees as a free agent. He’s a middle-of-the-road guy with a low ceiling and high floor. Taillon should be a decent #4 but a stretch at #3.

Hayden Wesnesky made the active roster on the last day before the opener. Wesnesky came to the Cubs from a deadline trade with the Yankees last August. He put up impressive numbers in his six starts for the Cubs. Two of those were against the Reds, one versus the Pirates and another one at home against the Rockies. In his 11 innings against the Reds, he struck out 14 and walked only two, allowing just one earned run and six hits.

Probable Pitching Matchups
  • Monday Connor Overton vs. Drew Smyly
  • Tuesday Luis Cessa vs. Hayden Wesneski
  • Wednesday Hunter Greene vs. Marcus Stroman

The Cubs bullpen could be decent although they start the season with no established closer and no left-handed arms. The free agent signings of Fulmer and Boxberger give them two solid veterans who have put together decent seasons. They lack explosive power arms you see in many bullpens. Fulmer pitched the 9th inning in the Cubs 4-0 win on Opening Day. Brandon Hughes is on the IL (knee) and would give them at least one lefty when he returns.

 Conclusion

The Cubbies are looking to shake off the stench of two losing seasons. They signed a bunch of free agents, including the big splash of Dansby Swanson, in hopes of skipping an all-out rebuild phase. The Cubs should be improved, but the projection experts still see them putting up another losing record in 2023.

  • FanGraphs: 75-87 (3rd in NLC)
  • PECOTA: 76-86 (3rd in NLC)
  • Athletic/Keith Law: 76-86 (3rd in NLC)
  • CBS Sports 78-85 (3rd in NLC)
  • FiveThirtyEight: 77-85 (3rd in NLC)

The Cubs fit in the middle of the NL Central. The Cardinals and Brewers are a cut above. The Reds and Pirates projected to be fighting for the basement. That leaves David Ross’ team in third place, again.

Featured Image: Chicago Cubs Twitter

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Steve Mancuso

Steve Mancuso is a lifelong Reds fan who grew up during the Big Red Machine era. He’s been writing about the Reds for more than ten years. Steve’s fondest memories about the Reds include attending a couple 1975 World Series games, being at Homer Bailey’s second no-hitter and going nuts for Jay Bruce at Clinchmas. Steve was also at all three games of the 2012 NLDS, but it’s too soon to talk about that.

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