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Having split the four-game series with the Phillies, the Reds turn their attention to the first-place Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays are 14-2 and atop the baseball world with the best record.
You may have heard the Rays began the season with 13 wins, tying a modern MLB record. In that stretch, the Rays outscored their opponents 101-30, leading the majors in runs scored and fewest allowed. The Rays had hit 32 homers, the most in the majors. They had a wRC+ of 162, with the next closest team at 128. Only five individual players in 2022 had a higher wRC+.
Two night games then an afternoon get-away:
- Monday (6:40 pm)
- Tuesday (6:40 pm)
- Wednesday (12:35 pm)
Last July, the Reds swept a three-game series from the Rays in Cincinnati. Prior to that, the two teams hadn’t met since 2017. Tampa Bay finished 86-76 and in third place of the AL East division. They were swept 2-0 in the AL Wild Card Series by the Cleveland Guardians.
The Rays have reached the postseason the past four years including making the World Series in 2020. They won the AL East in 2020 and 2021.
How the Rays Are Built
Let’s bust a few narratives that will sure to be presented for local consumption this week.
First, the Rays roster isn’t full of home-grown talent. Six of their nine position player starters and two top bench players were acquired by trade. Only Brandon Lowe, Josh Lowe and Wander Franco started their careers in the Rays organization. Only two of their 13 pitchers began with the Rays.
Starters Shane McClanahan and Josh Fleming were drafted and developed by the Rays. But Tyler Glasnow, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs were acquired by trade. Zach Eflin was signed as a free agent.
Second, the Rays trade for players who already have experience in the majors, not teenage prospects. Yandy Diaz, Randy Arozarena, Luke Raley, Isaac Peredes, Manuel Margo, Christian Bethancourt, Francisco Meija and Harold Ramirez either already had MLB experience or jumped immediately onto the Rays roster. Glasnow had pitched for the Pirates and Rasmussen for the Brewers. Springs had pitched for the Rangers and Red Sox.
Third, the Rays have mostly not traded away young prospects to acquire these players. Diaz was traded for Jake Bauers. Peredes was traded for Austin Meadows. Meija was traded for Blake Snell. Margot was traded for a reliever on the Rays staff. Most of the minor leaguers the Rays do trade aren’t top prospects. Raley was traded for a prospect that doesn’t crack the Dodgers top 50. Bethancourt was traded for two lower prospects. Ramirez was traded for a 30-year-old minor leaguer. The one exception was the deal for Arozarena, which sent pitching prospect Matthew Liberatore to the Cardinals. But the Rays also got back the 38th pick in the draft.
Glasnow was acquired for pitcher Chris Archer. Rasmussen came from the Brewers for Willy Adames. Springs came from the Red Sox for a catching prospect that had tumbled out of top talent lists.
In summary, the Rays do not have a single player on their roster who they acquired as a prospect by trade. The Rays have not been built by trading established veteran players for young prospects and then hoping those prospects develop. The Rays trade veterans for younger players who already have major league experience. They also take advantage of other teams’ roster crunches and ship off lower level prospects.
Payroll Breakdown
The Rays franchise is one of the few that is spending less on players than the Reds in 2023. Their estimated payroll is $77 million compared to the Reds at $81 million. Keep in mind that $18 million of that Reds amount is going to Mike Moustakas who is playing third base for the Colorado Rockies.
The Rays have eight players under guaranteed contracts. 22-year-old Wander Franco is on an 11-year, $182 million deal. Their only new free agent signing in 2023 is SP Zach Eflin, who agreed to a 3-year, $40 million deal. Beyond that, the Rays have 11 players who qualified for arbitration, although none of them are in the third or fourth year of it.
Offseason
The Rays are basically the same team they were last year. Every player on their active roster, except for a couple low-leverage relievers, was on the 2022 Tampa Bay Rays. Eflin is a new free agent pitcher but he’s on the IL and won’t play this week. For that matter, this Rays team is mostly intact back through the 2021 season.
Position Players
Here are the 13 Rays position players with 2023 projections.
The only injured position player is OF and former Red Jose Siri (hamstring). Siri had played in six games before he went on the IL.
Here is the Rays’ probable batting order against a RH starter:
- Yandy Diaz
- Brandon Lowe
- Randy Arozarena
- Wander Franco
- Luke Raley
- Isaac Peredes
- Josh Lowe
- Manuel Margot
- Christian Bethencourt
Harold Ramirez platoons at DH with Raley. Catcher Francisco Meija sees a lot of time behind the plate.
Brandon Lowe is off to a tremendous start (226 wRC+) and so is Wander Franco (188 wRC+). Randy Arozarena (143 wRC+) and Yandy Diaz (135 wRC+) are a tier below them but both hitting well. [Stats through Saturday.]
Pitchers
Here is our chart for the Tampa Bay pitchers.
Starting Rotation
Tampa Bay had one of the best starting staffs in baseball last year. They finished in the top five in ERA, xERA, SIERA, average exit velocity and hard-hit balls. They also gave up the fewest walks at 5.6% (Reds were at 9.0%).
26-year old Shane McClanahan sits at the top. He finished sixth in the AL Cy Young voting last year (2.79 xERA). Drew Rasmussen is back. The 27-year-old started 28 games (3.46 xERA).
The Rays are waiting for stud Tyler Glasnow to return from the IL. He missed all but two starts last year with Tommy John surgery. Glasnow hasn’t pitched full-time since the abbreviated 2020 season (3.13 xERA). He’s making just $5.35 million this year but due a whopping $25 million in 2024. You can bet the Rays want Glasnow back and performing well so they can trade him.
Corey Kluber made the most starts for Tampa Bay last year, but left as a free agent. Tampa Bay signed Zach Eflin to take Kluber’s starts. Eflin pitched seven seasons for the Phillies with 2022 his best (3.27 xERA). The Rays expected Jeffrey Springs, who started 25 games for them last year (3.27 xERA) to fill out the rotation.
Injuries?
Yes. Tampa Bay’s rotation plans have been slowed by injuries. Glasnow (oblique) was re-injured in February and is due back in late May. Eflin (back tightness) went on the IL last week but is expected to return soon. Finally, Springs (ulnar neuritis) left the game Thursday with a numb hand and it looks like he’ll be out a couple months. The Rays rotation is in flux to say the least.
Here are the probable starters:
- Monday Hunter Greene vs. Jalen Beeks/Josh Fleming
- Tuesday Nick Lodolo vs. TBA (Taj Bradley)
- Wednesday Luke Weaver vs. TBA (Drew Rasmussen)
The Reds will miss McClanahan who pitched yesterday. Reliever Calvin Faucher started Saturday in sort of a bullpen game. The Rays get double-barrel fire from the Reds in the first two games of the series. Weaver is expected to debut on Wednesday.
Jalen Beeks is listed as the starter for tonight. He’s a reliever. He opened the game for the Rays on April 10 and Fleming, who is a starter, followed. At the time this post was published, the Rays haven’t declared their starters for Tuesday and Wednesday. Taj Bradley and Drew Rasmussen are my best guesses for that.
Bullpen
The Rays bullpen has been one of the best in MLB for a long time. You have to go back to 2016 to find a season when it wasn’t ranked in the top ten. Most years it has been in the top five.
Pete Fairbanks (R) and Jason Adam (R) share closer duties, but manager Kevin Cash tends to match his pitchers to leverage situations. Colin Poche and Jalen Beeks are the top lefties.
Conclusion
The Tampa Bay Rays are a good team and playing well. The Reds’ best chance is taking advantage of the injuries in the Rays starting rotation.
Image: Rays Twitter
