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The Reds return home on Friday to kick off a 7-game homestand. They’ll begin with four games against a division rival in the Milwaukee Brewers. The Reds and Brewers have not yet met this season, in part due to the new, more balanced schedule.
- Friday, 5:10 pm
- Saturday, 4:10 pm
- Sunday, 1:40 pm
- Monday, 7:10 pm
The Brewers currently sit in first place in the NL Central, with a 29-27 record, despite the worst run differential in the division. That makes them within striking distance for the Reds, as a sweep could put the Reds in first place, depending on what the Pirates do over the weekend.
Offseason
The Brewers had a fairly active offseason. They signed two former Reds pitchers in Wade Miley and Justin Wilson to Major League contracts, though Wilson has yet to pitch while recovering from Tommy John surgery. They also signed infielder Brian Anderson and outfielder Blaine Perkins to MLB contracts, though Perkins is currently in AAA.
The bigger moves came in the form of trades. They dealt away outfielder Hunter Renfroe to the Angels, receiving three prospects in return. Two of those three, relievers Elvis Peguero and Janson Junk, have appeared in the Majors for the Brewers this year, with Peguero having some success. They also dealt infielder Kolten Wong to Seattle in exchange for MLB players Jesse Winker and Abraham Toro. The biggest trade was one that saw the Brewers acquire catcher William Contreras from Atlanta, a deal where the Brewers sent prospects and MLB outfielder Esteury Ruiz to Oakland, and Atlanta ended up with fellow catcher Sean Murphy from the A’s. Reliever Bryse Wilson and utility player Owen Miller were also acquired in the offseason in relatively minor trades.
Position Players
Here are the current stats for Brewers hitters, through Wednesday.
The Brewers will be without a few key hitters in this series, with Willy Adames, Luis Urias, Garrett Mitchell, and old friend Jesse Winker all on the IL. While only Mitchell had a wRC+ over 100 so far this season, each is considered a big part of the Brewers’ offense, and each of the other three have a history of success prior to 2023.
The Brewers’ offense as a whole ranks near the bottom of the league with an 88 wRC+. They strike out at the fourth highest rate in the Majors, while ranking 11th in walk rate. They’re much stronger against RHP than against LHP, ranking 20th in the Majors with a 93 wRC+ against RHP, while ranking 29th with just a 72 wRC+ against LHP. That will play into the Reds’ hand on Friday, with LHP Brandon Williamson on the mound.
The Brewers’ offense is currently anchored by the five-man group of Anderson, Contreras, Miller, Tellez, and Yelich, the group of above-average hitters with a significant number of plate appearances this year. Everyone else on the current roster either has only come to the plate a very small number of times, has struggled to hit, or both.
Pitchers
Here are the current stats for Brewers pitchers, through Wednesday.
Milwaukee starting pitchers rank 11th in the Majors with a 4.16 ERA this season. However, their 4.74 FIP (22nd best in the Majors) and 4.61 xFIP (23rd in Majors) display a much less optimistic picture. Add on the fact that two of their expected five starters, Wade Miley and Eric Lauer, are currently on the IL, and the rotation looks more like a weakness than the major strength it’s shown itself to be in recent years. Fill-in fifth starter Julio Teherán has made two solid starts, but last found real MLB success back in 2019, and hadn’t pitched in the Majors at all since 2021, when he made just one start. The Reds will miss #2 starter Freddy Peralta in this series, but will face former Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes.
The bullpen hasn’t really been any better. Without Josh Hader, who the Brewers traded last July to San Diego, the staff is anchored by now-closer Devin Williams, who is fantastic in his own right. Offseason acquisitions Peguero and Wilson, along with Joel Payamps, have all been solid, and Peter Strzelecki has also pitched better than his solid-but-unspectacular 4.07 ERA suggests. Still, as a whole, the group ranks just 19th in ERA, 26th in FIP, and 22nd in xFIP. They’re sixth best in the league in walk rate, but also have the sixth worst strikeout rate. Simply put, the Reds should be able to do some damage against the pitching staff, outside of Williams. It’s also important to note that the Brewers have just one LHP on the staff, in reliever Hoby Milner.
Probable Pitching Matchups
Friday: Corbin Burnes vs. Brandon Williamson
Saturday: Colin Rea vs. Graham Ashcraft
Sunday: Adrian Houser vs. Ben Lively
Monday: Julio Teherán vs. Luke Weaver
Conclusion
On paper, the Brewers don’t look like a great team, especially given the injuries they’re currently dealing with. Still, in a weak NL Central, they’ve been the best so far this season, and arguably came into the year as one of the favorites along with the Cardinals. The Reds will look to capitalize on the matchups to gain some ground on the division lead, if not come out of the series leading the division outright.
Featured Image: Twitter
