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The Reds travel to Baltimore for a three-game series beginning tonight. The Orioles are 47-29 and in second place in the competitive AL East, 4.5 games behind the Tampa Bay Rays. The Orioles are #9 in the FanGraphs power rankings, #4 in The Athletic, #4 in CBS and #4 in ESPN.
- Monday (7:05 pm)
- Tuesday (7:05 pm)
- Wednesday (7:05 pm)
The Orioles represent a positive vision of the Reds future. They underwent a brutal tear-down and rebuild, averaging 112 losses in 2018, 2019 and 2021. They broke through to win 83 games last year and are on pace to win close to 90 in 2023. Their player-position roster is dotted with homegrown high draft picks. The way-ahead-of-schedule Reds may be just a year behind the Orioles.
The Orioles last won the World Series in 1983 (Cal Ripken Jr., Eddie Murray, etc.). They’ve reached the postseason only three times in the past 26 years, most recently in 2016. The Orioles have won one playoff series in that time. Those of a certain age will recall the Orioles defeating a beta version of the Big Red Machine in the 1970 World Series (Frank Robinson, Brooks Robinson, Jim Palmer, Earl Weaver, etc.) in five games.
The two teams last met in 2022, when the Reds took two of three. The Reds haven’t visited beautiful Camden Yards since when they were swept by the O’s. The Reds haven’t won a game in Baltimore since 2011, in a game with two homers by Joey Votto and one each by Scott Rolen, Drew Stubbs and Jonny Gomes.
Position Players
The Orioles rank 10th in offense (wRC+) while the Reds are at #19. Baltimore is tenth in batting average, ninth in power (ISO) and tenth in stolen bases.
Catcher Adley Rutschman was the first pick in the 2019 draft, courtesy of the 115 losses suffered by the Orioles in 2018 under manager Buck Showalter. Rutschman sped through the Orioles affiliates while he rocketed to the tip-top of prospect lists. He debuted with Baltimore last year and played 113 games in the big leagues, putting up a 133 wRC+. Rutschman has avoided a sophomore slump, with a walk rate (15%) above his strikeout rate (14%). He’s headed for an All-Star game.
The Orioles announced yesterday they are calling up top infield prospect Jordan Westburg. Westburg is hitting .295/.372/.507 in Triple-A. He’s basically the Orioles’ Christian Encarnacion-Strand, with 18 home runs in 67 games. He was the Orioles first-round pick in 2020, a shortstop out of Jeff Brantley’s alma mater Mississippi State. He’ll mostly play 2B and 3B, moving Gunnar Henderson to SS. MLB Pipeline ranks Westburg the #34 prospect in its Top 100. FanGraphs ranks him outside their Top 100.
Starting Pitcher Matchups
Overall, the Orioles starting rotation is below average but still better than the Reds. Their ERA ranks 21, Reds 28. xERA ranks 25, Reds 27. SIERA ranks 13, Reds 21.
The pitching matchup in the series opener appears to be relatively even. Cole Irvin started 62 games for the Oakland A’s the past two seasons before being traded to the Orioles. Irvin has shuttled between Triple-A and the Majors for Baltimore. Tonight will be his sixth start in what has so far been a disappointing season. Irvin’s strikeout and walk rates are below average. He’s given up a lot of hard contact. Bottom 1% in xERA (Williamson is bottom 3%.). Irvin throws four pitches, starting with a 92 mph fastball. All of them have been clobbered this year. He’s also been the victim of bad BABIP and HR/FB luck. Even matchup.
The Orioles grabbed Tyler Wells in the Rule 5 draft from the Twins in 2020. He made 40 relief appearances with Baltimore in 2021 and since then has started. This will be his 15th start in 2023. Wells is having a good season so far, behind better-than-average walk and strikeout rates. He throws five pitches, topping out at his 92.5 mph four-seamer. His out pitches are a changeup to lefties and a slider to right-handed batters. Should be a good pitching matchup between two fly-ball pitchers.
Kyle Gibson is a veteran with more than 275 Major League starts, mostly with the Twins. The Orioles picked him up as a free agent and signed him to a one-year, $10 million contract. He’s given them innings. This start will be his 17th this year. His sinker velocity has always been around 92-93 mph, and he hasn’t lost that. Gibson throws five pitches. He uses a sweeper to get out right-handed batters. I suppose you’d say Gibson is the top end of the Orioles’ rotation, but he’s in the bottom quartile of the important metrics.
Bullpen
The Orioles bullpen ranks in the top third of Major League relief units. But it’s a tale of two halves. They have three or four pitchers, including perhaps the best in MLB at the top. But the back end is lousy.
That’s not a typo. Orioles closer Felix Bautista has struck out half the batters he’s faced. For context, that’s peak Aroldis Chapman except Bautista is right-handed. He’s in the 99th or 100th percentile in most categories, save walks. Seventy percent of his pitches are a 99-mph fastball with a 39.5% whiff rate. His second pitch is an 88-mph splitter that has a 58% whiff rate.
Conclusion
This should be a fascinating series loaded with offense and featuring exciting young players on both sides. Camden Yards is a stunning setting. Jordan Westburg will debut. The matchup will be a good test for David Bell’s kids to play tough on the road after the dramatic, emotional series with Atlanta.
Featured image: Orioles Facebook
