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The Rockies took two-of-three when the Reds visited Colorado in mid-May. This week, the two teams conclude their 2023 series with three more games at Great American Ball Park, starting tonight.
- Monday (7:10 pm)
- Tuesday (7:10 pm)
- Wednesday (12:35 pm)
When the Reds left Denver on May 17, the two teams had nearly identical records. The Reds were 19-24 and the Rockies were 19-25. Since then, they’ve been on divergent paths. The Reds have gone 18-11 while Colorado has been 10-20.
Position Players
The Rockies rank at the bottom (30th) in run production. That’s even more remarkable considering the offense-favorable altitude where they play home games.
Starting Pitcher Matchups
If it wasn’t for the Oakland A’s the Rockies would rank last in starting pitching and by some metrics, like SIERA, they already do. They haven’t named a starter for Wednesday’s series finale.
The first starter matchup is good one in a bad sort of way. The Gomber and Williamson, both left-handed, have the same xERA and SIERA. Neither one records many strikeouts and both have slightly above average walk rates. The Reds had considered going with an opener in this game (seriously, against the Rockies anemic lineup?) but used too much bullpen in yesterday’s thrilling win over the Astros. Gomber throws an extremely hittable 91-mph fastball for more than 40% of his pitches.
Freeland would be considered the “ace” of the Rockies staff if the best starter for each team was called an ace. Another lefty, he’s pitched in the 4.85 range this year whether you look at quality of contact or not. It’s hard to be successful pitching in Colorado and in that context, Freeland has been decent the past couple years. But Freeland has been worse on the road (xwOBA .332) than at home (xwOBA .325) over his career. He’s been dreadful in his seven road starts in 2023.
Not sure what the Rockies will do here. Don’t even have much of a guess. The guy who pitched in this slot last time was Danilson Lamet who Colorado designated for assignment the next day. Chase Anderson and Connor Seabold are their other two starters, but they both pitched over the weekend. The pitcher they called up to replace Lamet, Gavin Hollowell, is a reliever. They’ll have to pull someone from one of their minor league teams. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Bullpen
The Rockies bullpen ranks in the bottom five.
Justin Lawrence took over the closer role a couple weeks ago from Pierce Johnson. Lawrence throws a 95-mph sinker and one of those sweepers, each about half the time. The latter is his put-away/whiff pitch.
Conclusion
This series shapes up favorably for the Reds, to say the least. The one trap door is the Reds starting rotation, but against this lineup they should be okay. David Bell’s club has to avoid looking ahead to the weekend when best-in-the-NL Atlanta invades GABP.
Featured image: Dodgers Facebook
