Red Monday | A good week, impending roster squeeze, checking on Spencer Steer, the days ahead

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Welcome to Red Monday, where Reds fans can start their week with clear-eyed analysis of how the team is doing and where it’s headed.

The Week That Was 

The Reds had a good week. They were 4-2 with series wins over the Dodgers and Cardinals and are 31-35 overall. David Bell’s club is four games behind the Pittsburgh Pirates and three below Milwaukee for second. 

• Tuesday The Reds outscored the Dodgers 9-8 without hitting a home run. After falling behind 8-3 in the third, David Bell’s crew continued to chip away at the L.A. lead. With the help of three walks and a HBP, the Reds pushed three runs across in the 9th. Elly De La Cruz doubled and had two walks in his debut. Matt McLain had the game-winning hit. Luke Weaver allowed seven runs in 3.2 innings 
• Wednesday Will Benson blasted a two-run homer in the 9th to give the Reds an 8-6 win. The game also featured a 468-foot Elly De La Cruz homer that almost cleared the right-center stadium wall and Tyler Stephenson’s fourth. Brandon Williamson gave up 6 runs in 5.2 innings. Buck Farmer, Lucas Sims and Alexis Diaz followed with 3.1 shutout frames. 
• Thursday The Reds bats were no match for Clayton Kershaw. The future Hall of Famer scattered five hits in seven shutout innings, striking out nine. Graham Ashcraft seemed to be pitching better but got drilled by a 105.5 mph line drive and was forced to leave the game a few batters later. Fernando Cruz gave up three more runs the next inning. 

The Reds traveled to St. Louis for a three-game series with the Cardinals: 

• Friday The Reds got more shaky starting pitching as Ben Lively gave up seven earned runs in 6.2 innings. Jordan Montgomery shut out the Reds for six innings. The offense woke up late. Stuart Fairchild had two runs on two hits and a walk. Matt McLain had a double — his eighth — and a walk. Elly De La Cruz struck out three times for the second game in a row. Final: 7-4 Cardinals. 
• Saturday The Reds offense jumped on Cardinals starter Miles Mikalos early, mounting a 5-0 and then 7-0 lead. Andrew Abbott pitched 5.2 shutout innings in his second start. Big hits included a bases loaded double by Luke Maile and a 2-run double by Spencer Steer. Final: 8-4 Reds. 
• Sunday Starter Hunter Greene wasn’t at his best, allowing three runs in 5.2 innings. Ian Gibaut, Lucas Sims and Alexis Diaz shut out the Cardinals the rest of the way in the 4-3 win. Jonathan India hit his 7th home run. Elly De La Cruz had two singles, two walks and scored two runs amid a flurry of bad throws forced by his blazing speed. 

The Week to Come

The Reds stay in the Central time zone this week: 

• Three games in Kansas City with the Royals (8:10, 8:10, 8:10)
• An off day on Thursday
• Three games with Dusty Baker’s Houston Astros (8:10, 4:10, 2:10)

The Impending Roster Squeeze

Photo: Reds Facebook

The Reds front office faces a significant roster squeeze in the coming couple weeks. Expected available to return to the club are Jake Fraley, Nick Senzel, Joey Votto, Wil Myers and possibly Christian Encarnacion-Strand. That’s five players to fit or DFA.

Of the 26 players on a Major League active roster, teams now carry 13 position players. We know these seven guys/slots are locks:

1. Tyler Stephenson
2. Curt Casali or Luke Maile
3. Jonathan India
4. Matt McLain
5. Elly De La Cruz
6. Spencer Steer
7. TJ Friedl

That leaves six currently active players to consider in the next wave of decisions:

1. Curt Casali or Luke Maile
2. Kevin Newman
3. Jose Barrero
4. Stuart Fairchild
5. Will Benson
6. T.J. Hopkins

The wisdom of the three-catcher plan lasted a month, to be generous. We’re well past that. Matt wrote in detail about this a few days ago. In recent weeks, Tyler Stephenson has shown promising signs at the plate (102 wRC+ over the past 18 games, with a .188 ISO) but it’s hard to see him earning time at first base now. Legit DH opportunities could become scarce. By July 1, the Reds should be using Stephenson and either Maile or Casali in a classic starter/backup pattern. That means one of the two veteran catchers can be released.

T.J. Hopkins is an easy case. He has three singles and a walk in 19 plate appearances. The Reds should option him back to Louisville.

Barring injury to others, Jose Barrero has lost his infield playing time to McLain and De La Cruz. Barrero has done a capable job in the 100+ innings he’s been assigned to center field. But while his offense has improved over a dreadful 2022 campaign, he’s still hitting poorly (69 wRC+/.271 xwOBA). The Reds should option him back to Louisville to work on his bat and playing CF.

Those moves create three openings, let’s say for Fraley, Senzel and Votto. We know they’re going to make the team after they work their way back from injury. The Reds would then be carrying two catchers, five infielders, five outfielders and Spencer Steer, swingman.

That brings us to Wil Myers. He’s been a gigantic flop at the plate (42 wRC+/.251 xwOBA). Myers does offer position flexibility, having played a solid-to-good first base. But his value at first becomes limited once Votto returns. Myers is earning $7.5 million. His competition would be Fairchild and Benson, the other outfielders.

Between Fairchild and Benson, it’s a close call. Fairchild (27) has been more consistent. Benson (25) has been improved since his call-up in May (99 wRC+). But Fairchild has been even better over that period (108 wRC+). Both are fast and can play center field. It may come down to handedness — Fairchild is right-handed, Benson a lefty. Benson would give the Reds three left-handed outfielders to add with Joey Votto and the switch-hitting De La Cruz to bat from the left side.

• What the Reds should do is DFA Myers and keep Benson and Fairchild on the roster. But that entails giving up the faint hope of trading Myers at the deadline and admitting the top offseason signing proved to be a bust. That doesn’t sound like this Reds front office.
• What the Reds will do: Option Stuart Fairchild to Triple-A and try to find Myers enough playing time (that won’t be easy).

That leaves a decision about Encarnacion-Strand, who is laying waste to Triple-A, batting .362/.427/.734, with 17 home runs and a 182 wRC+. He’s raised his walk-rate to 9.5%, although you can understand why pitchers in his league won’t throw him strikes.

If Encarnacion-Strand joined the Reds it would be to share first base and designated hitter roles with Joey Votto. Who could the Reds cut to make room? Kevin Newman is the expendable infielder. But they could instead cut another outfielder (Benson or Fairchild) and tell Spencer Steer he’s a left-fielder full time.

• What the Reds should do is option Kevin Newman to Louisville and promote Christian Encarnacion-Strand. Newman still has all three option years remaining. But that would call into question another major offseason signing. Beyond that, Newman has demonstrated a bit of veteran-y grit that has proven to be cat nip for Reds decision-makers.
• What the Reds will do is keep CES in at Triple-A until they can piece together a face-saving trade for Newman or Myers.

Here’s my July 1 Reds roster, assuming those five players are ready to join the team and no one else is hurt:

1. Tyler Stephenson C
2. Luke Maile C
3. Joey Votto 1B/DH
4. Jonathan India 2B
5. Matt McLain SS
6. Elly De La Cruz 3B
7. Christian Encarnacion-Strand DH/1B
8. Jake Fraley OF
9. T.J. Friedl OF
10. Spencer Steer IF/OF
11. Nick Senzel OF
12. Will Benson OF
13. Stuart Fairchild OF

Checking in on Spencer Steer

Photo: Reds Facebook

Spencer Steer has 268 plate appearances in the 2023 season. The 25-year-old infielder/outfielder has been hitting in the #5 spot of the Reds lineup. Let’s check in on his numbers to see what we can tell.

At the plate, Steer has improved across the board over 2022. 

• Strikeout rate (K%) down from 24% to 18%
• Expected batting average (xBA) up from .209 to .246
• Isolated power (ISO) up from .116 to .192
• Overall run production (wRC+) up from 76 to 121
• Contact quality (xwOBA) up from .281 to .327
• Average exit velocity (EV) up from 84.7 mph to 89.6 mph

Relative to league average, Steer has: more power, fewer strikeouts, more walks, higher exit velocity, more sprint speed, lower chase rate, better overall run production whether using scorebook outcomes (25% better) or quality of contact (5% better). 

Steer hasn’t exhibited a platoon bias. His wRC+ is 117 vs. LHP and 128 vs. RHP. 

In Case You Missed It

Hector Rodriguez blasts this home run for the Single-A Daytona Tortugas. The 19-year-old Rodriguez has 10 homers and seven stolen bases in 203 plate appearances. The Reds acquired him in the trade with the Mets last year for Tyler Naquin. 

[Featured image: Reds Facebook]