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- The impending roster squeeze and checking in on Spencer Steer | Steve Mancuso
- How Reds pitchers rank in the new Stuff+ models | Matt Wilkes
- The impact of Reds catchers on the pitching staff | Kyle Berger
- Nick Lodolo’s injury is worse than you think | Steve Mancuso
- How Alexis Díaz has become one of baseball’s best relievers | Matt Wilkes
- Analyzing and interpreting splits for Reds hitters | Kyle Berger
- It’s time to change shortstops | Steve Mancuso
- Rookie of the Year Jonathan India is re-emerging | Matt Wilkes
- Statcast, stabilization rates, and data-driven decisions | Kyle Berger
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I can’t currently comment on the RightStuff+ post, so I’ll comment here. I enjoyed the post and found the data interesting and often not surprising. But it alo illustrates how difficult it is to measure the quality of a pitcher without any reliance on results (difficult but not impossible, it will take a lot of work).
Sims at the very bottom tells you something’s not quite right. Herget a better Pitching+ rating than Sims ?
Let’s look at Sims vs. Gibault. In terms of performance, it’s a very small sample size, but Gibault is having his best season and Sims is not as far from his career norms. Sample size is not an issue in this comparison.
For stuff, Sims gets 107 and Gibault 108. In 27 innings Sims has 34 Ks, given up 12 hits and 0 HRs.
In 35 innings Gibault has 29 Ks, allowed 29 Hits, and 5 HRs. Hmm.
For location, Gibault gets 100 and Sims 87, due to Sims high walk rate (16/27). Gibault’s walk rate isn’t good either (15/35).
But something is amiss about the handling of “wildness in the strike zone”. Gibault has given up 5 HRs and Sims none because Gibault throws more pitches right down Broadway (obvious eye test). It is not at all surprising that Gibault is giving up HRs at a much higher rate than Sims, he always has and will continue to do so. The metric is very tough on pitches outside the strike zone but not tough enough on meatballs thrown right down Broadway.
Even if you get command and location right, there’s more to being a good pitcher than that. How well does the pitcher pitch relative to the batter’s strengths and weaknesses. How well does he make adjustments and pitch to the situation. The other night Gibault was doing OK and a mound visit is made (unfamiliar hitter). Gibault proceeds to throw 4 pitches nowhere near the strike zone. He doesn’t adjust, walking two more batters with wild pitches. Does anyone have confidence he’ll adjust ? NO ! Bell the optimist didn’t, so no one else would. He brings in Sims, who escapes the jam by striking out two batters. Did any of us really object to his bringing in Sims ? I don’t think so, we had confidence that Sims would not treat the situation as if the bases were empty. With the bases loaded, Sims would attack the strike zone, as he’s done before.