First-Half Review | Reds Position Players

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At the start of spring training we published a roster analysis of Reds position players. The issues:

• Chad Pinder versus Nick Solak at DH
• Jose Barrero or Kevin Newman at shortstop
• Could Spencer Steer hold down third base after the club released Mike Moustakas
• Jonathan India had lost weight, re-gained athleticism and would focus less on hitting for power.
• Tyler Stephenson was viewed as such a linchpin of the offense, the front office signed two (redundant) veteran catchers to keep Stephenson healthy and doing non-catcher things.

Reading back through it, it’s clear we wake up at the All-Star break in a different world. The bombshell impact of Matt McLain and Elly De La Cruz, combined with the simultaneous emergence of Steer, Jake Fraley, TJ Friedl and Will Benson have washed away every preseason narrative.

Given that so much has changed, let’s use the regular season pause to take a fresh look.

The Player Charts

wRC+ is a weighted average (doubles more value than singles, etc.) of run creation with 100 set as average. Every point higher or lower than 100 is a percentage point away from MLB average. For example, a player with a wRC+ of 105 is producing runs five percent above league average. wRC+ is based on the player’s scorebook outcomes. A line-drive out is an out. A bloop double is a double.

xwRC+ is the same 100-point-average stat except using the typical outcome of the player’s quality of contact. A player hits a ball that typically goes for a double, but happens to be caught by a great defensive play, he gets credit for the double. He hits a soft flare that is usually caught for an out, but happens to drop in, he gets credit for an out.  xwRC+ is based on the player’s actual struck balls. Think of it as a dressed-up version of average exit velocity.

Each player’s chart below shows three statistics:

• (PA) his plate appearances
• (PSP) his preseason projected wRC+ by FanGraphs
• (wRC+) his current wRC+
• (xwRC+) his current xwOBA converted to an wRC+ scale

We’ll look at other noteworthy stats in each player’s discussion section. The players are covered in order based on the number of their 2023 plate appearances. Every player with at least 50 PA is discussed.

Jonathan India (26) – Captain America

2023 was supposed to be the season we’d see the best Jonathan India. Maybe we are.

After a terrific NL Rookie of the Year campaign in 2021 and a miserable 2022 season plagued by a pulled hamstring, we thought this year would be definitive. We’d find out, is India a leadoff hitter, a power hitter or something in between? India appeared primed, having lost weight and improving his agility. Once again, we fell for the oldest, worn-out spring training narrative.

India hit leadoff through April and almost all of May. It felt like the middle part of his rookie success, with India re-establishing his approach as a patient, table-setter. Until May 22, India was batting .287 and walking at an 11.5% rate. His power was down to .130 ISO, but overall his wRC+ was 111, close to his ROY number.

With the emergence of TJ Friedl and arrival of Matt McLain, David Bell shuffled the lineup and moved India to the third. Since May 25, India’s expected BA has fallen from .264 to .244. His line-drive rate has fallen from 23.5 to 16.7. Batting leadoff, India was more selective. His chase rate was 3.5% lower. His exit velocity has also dropped from 90.9 mph to 89.0 mph. Batting third, India does hit for more power, raising his ISO to an outstanding .210. 

But a funny thing happened on the way to a narrative.

We checked his BABIP. It turns out India’s luck has been abysmal since he moved to third in the lineup. His BABIP, which was .344 when he hit first, has dropped to .193 while he’s hit third. When you adjust for that, by looking at his xwOBA, India’s contact quality plus walks has been higher (.353) when he hit third compared to when he hit first (.344). Hmm.

Let’s take a step back. India has been batting third for about six weeks. For the first half of that stretch, he hit well, putting up a wRC+ of 120. He batted .247 and hit seven homers in 21 games. But the last three weeks, his wRC+ has dropped to 54. Because of our well established recency bias, that last chunk is what we tend to remember.

What does all this mean?

Jonathan India definitely changes his approach when he bats leadoff. He works the count, is more selective, walks more and hits for less power. The three-hole India has a lower batting average and walk-rate, and he hits for much more power. Which India is better for the Reds? Once you eliminate luck elements, his overall production has been about the same. Maybe even a slight edge to him batting third.

The trouble he’s had lately could easily be a slump, not a product of batting third.

India has hit the ball much better than the scorebook shows. He’s due for a positive luck correction in coming weeks.

Noteworthy: Again, since May 25, Jonathan India’s xwOBA has been .353. That’s better than any other Reds hitter in 2023.

Concern: India’s defense at second base is still a concern. We’ve seen no sign the Reds might move him to the outfield. On the other hand, the assumption McLain would move to 2B when Elly arrived has been reconsidered because of McLain’s superlative play at SS. Still, the idea of Steer to 3B, Elly to SS and McLain to 2B looms.

Spencer Steer (25) – SpencerMVP

You can make the case (and we did) that Spencer Steer has been the club’s most valuable player in the first half. He has hit for average and power. He’s run the bases. The Reds released Mike Moustakas presumably to open playing time for Steer at third base. When Wil Myers got hurt, Steer moved to first and played most of his games there. When Joey Votto returned, Steer moved to left field, a position he’d never played. Steer has been successful against both right-handed and left-handed pitchers, so his bat stays in the lineup every night. Steer leads or is tied for club lead in home runs and RBI.

Spencer Steer has outperformed the projections. He may be due for a small decline, but would remain much better than average. And maybe he’ll keep getting better. He’s still got less than a year service time.

Noteworthy: Despite his lack of experience, Steer has a below-average strikeout rate, swinging-strike rate and whiff rate. He has a better than average walk and chase rate. His batting average and expected batting average are better than the typical major leaguer. His hard-hit rate, average exit velocity and isolated power are above average. Obviously, that generates an overall run production of well above average. Oh yeah, he has better than average sprint speed and has stolen nine bases.

Concerns: Not much to point at. His expected batting average is thirty points below his scorebook batting average. There’s the defense. But we’re talking about a position Adam Dunn played in Cincinnati for nearly a decade. With Steer’s good speed, he could quickly become an average-or-better left fielder.

Tyler Stephenson (26) – Still The Same Guy

Tyler Stephenson’s first-half performance has been criticized as falling far short of his 2022 output. He’s often described in the media as not hitting as well in 2023 as 2022. But when you factor in his crazy amount of good luck last year (.409 BABIP) and bad luck earlier this year, it turns out Stephenson has hit the ball about the same from year to year. Remember, injuries limited him to only 50 games last year. He’s already played in 84 in 2023.

We looked at Stephenson’s hitting about a month ago and the numbers haven’t changed much since. His expected batting average is down from .260 to .245. But his walk rate is up considerably, from 6.6% to 10.4% and his expected power (xISO) is higher this year (.142) than it was last year (.134). Overall, Stephenson’s xwOBA is .321 in 2023 and was .318 last year. So Stephenson hasn’t hit worse this year. He’s had significantly worse luck.

Every time a couple hits fall in, announcers say something like Stephenson is coming around, when in fact it’s more accurate to say his luck is evening out. 

Stephenson has hit the ball as he was projected by experts to hit it. In fact, he’s been highly consistent over the four years of his career. What’s changed each year has been his luck.

Noteworthy: Stephenson’s contact quality overall is better than league average, as is his hard-hit rate. Stephenson has hit better this year when he isn’t behind the plate. But when you look at his career numbers, that relationship doesn’t hold. Variances like that are the result of small sample size quirks. They make for media narratives but aren’t analytical. Stephenson has five home runs in 55 career plate appearances as a pinch hitter.

Concerns: The front office plan to use Stephenson less behind the plate lasted a couple weeks, overrun by current events known as McLain, De La Cruz, Votto and Steer. As Stephenson now spends more time catching, his defensive shortcomings play a bigger role. He’s at -6 already in Defensive Runs Saved. Statcast has him in the bottom 5% in framing. Batting, his strikeout rate has ticked up to 27% (league average is 23%) and his contact rate is down about 4%.

TJ Friedl (27) – Walking The Walk

TJ Friedl has had a remarkable first half of 2023. Friedl began the season batting second behind Jonathan India, but moved to the leadoff spot against right-handed pitchers in mid-May after Matt McLain arrived. Friedl was solid in the #2 spot (107 wRC+) but has surged leading off due to a huge spike in his walk-rate. Batting second, he walked just 4% of his PA. Leading off, he’s walked at a rate of nearly 14%. That extra 10% has pushed his on-base percentage above .400, which is terrific for a lead-off hitter. He’s also provided value with stolen bases (16 out of 17 attempts).

Friedl has massively outperformed expectations. But looking at how weak he hits the ball, you keep waiting for the other cleat to drop. You have to hope he’s one of those rare outliers who can defy a consistent record of soft contact and keep getting on base.

Noteworthy: Last season, Friedl had a normal right-left split for a left-handed batter, although he held his own against left-handed pitchers. This year, he’s been terrific against LHP (136 wRC+). His walk-rate is much lower on that side, which is possibly a reflection of his differing approach when he bats leadoff against RHP. And his BABIP against LHP is .480, which is impossible to sustain. When you adjust for that, his xBA against lefties drops to .222 compared to vs. righties at .254.

Concerns: Friedl is in the bottom 4% of average exit velocity, bottom 2% in hard-hit and bottom 1% in barrels. His expected batting average is 60 points below his actual BA. Friedl’s pop-up rate has soared to 16.4%, nearly double the league average. Fly balls and ground balls can go for hits, but there’s not much value in a pop up. As his xwRC+ shows, there’s a certain gravity-defying aspect to TJ Friedl’s season so far.

Jake Fraley (28) – Rakin’ It In

Jake Fraley is having a terrific season. He’s batting .278, his walk rate (12%) is high and close to his strikeout rate (16%), he’s hit 11 home runs and stolen 16 bases. Other than a minimum stay on the IL in June for a wrist bruise, Fraley has been healthy and stayed on the field.

The half-way point in 2023 makes an interesting time to look at Fraley’s performance. He’s had 260 plate appearances which comes close to matching his total PA in each of 2022 (247) and 2021 (265). Keep in mind Fraley played for the Mariners in 2021. It would be tempting to look at Fraley’s production over those seasons and conclude he’s hit better with the Reds.

• 109 (2021 wRC+)
• 121 (2022 wRC+)
• 121 (2023 RC+)

But the truth is nuanced. Jake Fraley has an extreme platoon split. He’s shown it all three seasons. His wRC+ against right-handed pitchers in those seasons was 131, 134 and 142 respectively. The reason Fraley’s overall numbers with the Reds are 12% higher than with the Mariners is the Reds have used him in a platoon role. Under David Bell, 85% of Fraley’s plate appearances have been against right-handed pitchers. The Mariners didn’t platoon him at all, with 68% of his PA against righties. Fraley’s xwOBA in 2023 (.366) is identical to his number in 2021 (.366). His average exit velocity is a small bit lower in 2023 (85.3 mph) than in 2021 (86.3 mph). All three seasons Fraley hit with isolated power between .210-.223 against RHP.

Fraley is outperforming expert projections, which didn’t assume he’d be protected by a platoon as much as he is. Still, a legit 20% better than average against the 75% of pitchers who throw with their right arm is valuable.

Noteworthy: Like many left-handed batters, Fraley has benefitted from defensive shifts being curtailed. His greater success in 2023 at pulling the ball for singles (green dots) and doubles (blue dots) is easy to see in this spray chart.

Fraley still sprays the ball all over the field, but he hits it harder to the pull side so he has more success there than before.

Concerns: Fraley’s average exit velocity (84.9 mph) is in the bottom 1% of hitters. His hard-hit rate in the bottom 10%. A strong correlation has been proven between hitting the ball hard and success at the plate. But Fraley’s EV has been low like that all three years of his career. He manages to put up production numbers well above average. He’s hit 11 home runs. His BABIP is in line as are his expected stats. So he isn’t getting by on luck, just a different formula.

Matt McLain (23) – Vroom, Vroom

There’s not much to do, other than stare in wonder at the first two months of Matt McLain’s big league career. The Reds called up McLain on May 15 and installed him at the shortstop. The team hasn’t been the same since. It may have taken the additional promotion of Elly De La Cruz a couple weeks later to put the team over the top, but McLain’s picture is the one you’ll find in the Reds dictionary next to the words “jump start.”

If you extrapolate McLain’s numbers to 162 games, it’s 202 hits, 51 doubles, 14 triples, 24 home runs, 122 runs scored, 98 RBI, 17 stolen bases and that beautiful .363 on-base percentage. Those numbers would have led MLB last year in hits, doubles and triples. Only one major leaguer had more than seven three-baggers last year, and he had nine. Freddy Freeman had the most doubles at 47. Aaron Judge scored 133 runs, but no one else had more than 117.

McLain’s early Major League numbers were juiced by a crazy BABIP of .531. We knew and wrote he couldn’t keep that up. He wasn’t going to go on hitting .380, have a .200 ISO or a 180 wRC+. With McLain’s BABIP “down” to .400, most of the adjustment has happened. A player like McLain, hitting 25% better than league average, playing impeccable defense at shortstop and with top 10% sprint speed is extremely valuable.

Noteworthy: McLain has been a steadying defensive force. Your eyeballs tell you that. So do the numbers. McLain’s defensive metrics are positive across the board (DRS, UZR/150, OAA, RAA). The strongest evidence for how well McLain has played short is that he’s kept Elly De La Cruz playing mostly third base. McLain moves to 2B and De La Cruz to SS when Jonathan India gets a day off or hits as DH. The contrast between McLain at short and Jose Barrero and Kevin Newman before McLain’s arrival is stark.

Concerns: More nit-picking than concerns. McLain’s numbers have been inflated by about 7% due to good luck. He’s been thrown out in three of his eight stolen base attempts. His strikeout rate is a little higher than average and walk rate a little below average.

Nick Senzel (28) – The Right Button

Nick Senzel, the Reds #1 draft pick in 2016 (#2 overall), entered the 2023 season having produced negative WAR per FanGraphs (-0.6 WAR) and Baseball-Reference (-1.9 WAR). Senzel began the year on the IL recovering from toe surgery and went down for another stint in June (knee).

Early in the year, Senzel was seeing semi-regular playing time in centerfield and third base. As he’s had earlier in his career, Senzel went a few weeks where he seemed to be figuring things out. From April 25 to May 31, he hit .313/.378/.482 with a wRC+ of 126. But in the end, his bat against right-handed pitchers continues to lag.

With the emergence of Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz, Spencer Steer, Will Benson and TJ Friedl, Senzel has found his playing time sharply reduced. He starts in a corner outfield spot against left-handed pitchers. The good news is Senzel has seemed to thrive in this role. He homered twice in the Nationals series, including a game-winning two-run blast in extra innings.

Senzel has been about what was expected, although a little unlucky. If Bell keeps using him against left-handed pitchers, the numbers will go up. Perfect utility player and pinch hitter.

Noteworthy: In 65 plate appearances, Senzel has a 172 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers. He’s hit seven homers, already the second-most in his career.

Concern: In 140 plate appearances, Senzel has a 47 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers. His hard-hit rate and average exit velocity are in the league’s bottom 20%.

Kevin Newman (29) – Carrying The Mail

The Reds traded for Kevin Newman hoping for a $3 million-cheaper version of Kyle Farmer, a reliable veteran who could play across the infield including shortstop. With the Pirates, Newman had been a below-average hitter and above-average fielder. For the Reds, he got a good amount of playing time until Matt McLain showed up. Newman had started at SS in three of the four games prior to McClain’s debut and hasn’t played an inning there since.

Once Elly De La Cruz joined the Reds, Newman’s role became narrower and more defined: leadoff hitter against left-handed starters. In the field, he’s alternated between first and third.

David Bell is using Newman in a way that maximizes his value to the team. That’s because for most of his big league career, Newman has had a large left-right batting split. Newman’s 2023 numbers against lefties are nothing short of eye-popping. He has a 137 wRC+ against LHP, hitting for average and power. The Reds have needed his bat because of the lefties on the roster (Fraley, Benson) who haven’t hit southpaws well.

Similar to Nick Senzel. Newman was expected to produce below average and he has, while hitting better than his results show so far. If Newman keeps playing against mostly lefties, his numbers will improve. Strong utility infielder and pinch hitter.

Stuart Fairchild (27) – Perfectly Average

Stuart Fairchild exemplifies an average Major League player. He hits for average power (.167 ISO vs .162 MLB), has an above-average on-base percentage (.339 OBP vs. .320 MLB), and plays average defense across the outfield, including center field. His sprint speed is top-10% and has stolen nine bases.

Stuart Fairchild is also the one player on this list who’s in Triple-A now.

Why? As an average Major League player, Fairchild deserved and saw playing time during the first part of the Reds season. His 186 plate appearances are ninth-most on the team. That early-season Reds team was improved by the addition of an average player. 

Now, however, with the arrival of several excellent prospects and the emergence of outfield teammates, an average Major League player is borderline for this Reds roster. It’s a close call, though. If the Reds weren’t carrying three catchers, Fairchild would likely have remained on the team. He’s a much better right-handed bat than Curt Casali and would make an excellent platoon partner for one of the left-handed OF with big platoon splits (Fraley or Benson).

Fairchild was expected to be a bit below average. He’s produced a little better than that, at right around average. His underlying numbers support his on-field production.

Noteworthy/Concern: Fairchild has a platoon split of about 25-30 points. Whether you look at the data for 2023 or his career, he’s produced around a 115 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers and a 87 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers. It’s not a huge split. A small-ish split is good if you’re looking for an everyday player, like Spencer Steer. It’s less-good if you’re looking for a platoon bat. Nick Senzel and Kevin Newman have much bigger splits favoring batting against LHP. Still, Fairchild’s 115 wRC+ is 15% better than the average Major Leaguer.

Will Benson (25) – Will To Win

This offseason, the Reds traded for Will Benson from the Cleveland Guardians. The Guardians were looking to clear a spot on their 40-man roster. Benson was regarded as talented with a strong work ethic. At Triple-A in 2022, he’d flashed big-time power, speed and an elite walk-rate. The question was whether he could repeat that in the bigs. The Guardians weren’t so sure. 

Benson made the Reds out of spring training and started in left field on Opening Day. After eight games and 21 PA, Benson had one hit – a single – and one walk to go with 12 strikeouts. Benson seemed to have lost confidence. The Reds hustled him back to Triple-A. 

Six weeks later, Will Benson got another chance with the Reds and wow, has he taken advantage. In 109 PA he’s batted .337, walked 16% of the time, and hit for isolated power (ISO) of .201, with three homers (including a dramatic walk-off against the Dodgers), three triples and four doubles. That’s a wRC+ of 161 over that stretch.

You’ve got to think the experts who project these things have been every bit as surprised with Benson’s breakout as the Cleveland Guardians are. To be sure, Benson won’t keep up the .403 BABIP since his May 21 call-up. But even if he’s “just” 20% better than league average that’s much better than anyone expected. The strict platoon Bell uses with him also helps protect his numbers.

Noteworthy: Since May 21, Benson has a 16% walk rate to go with a 17% strikeout rate. That’ll work. He has seven stolen bases in eight attempts and his speed ranks in the top 90th percentile.

Concerns: Benson’s BABIP has been .400 since his May call-up, adding 6o points to his batting average and 50 points to his wOBA. Even adjusting for the BABIP, Benson’s numbers have been excellent. But he’s not going to continue at an MVP pace. Also, he has an extreme platoon split (134/17) that makes him hard to play against LHP.

Elly De La Cruz (21)  – Cruz Missile

Let’s dispense with the obvious. Elly De La Cruz is the most exciting player to join the Reds as a prospect in memory. Fans of the team will remember June 6, 2023 as our E-Day when De La Cruz landed. A franchise milestone date. A day later that ball had a family.

Elly De La Cruz challenges your imagination for what a Major League player can do. He hits the ball a mile, runs faster than the wind and has a cannon for an arm. To our great benefit, he plays the game with a contagious joy and emotion.

Numbers? 100th percentile sprint speed. 98th percentile arm strength. 98th percentile maximum exit velocity. In a month, he’s already blasted the Reds two longest home runs and smacked the team’s four hardest-hit balls.

Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs each calculate player WAR (wins above average). They’re almost in agreement with De La Cruz. Let’s go with 1.1 WAR so far, that’s the average of the two sites. That’s a 6.1 WAR rookie season. Frank Robinson posted 6.5 WAR in his Rookie of the Year season for the Reds in 1956.

De La Cruz’s competitive impact has been palpable. The Reds won 14 of his first 16 games; 22 of the next 28. They went from five games back to two games in the time it took De La Cruz to steal home Saturday.

Yes, he strikes out 29% of the time. More concerning, De La Cruz has a ground-ball rate of 59%, second-highest in MLB. To be sure, Elly can beat out a few grounders. But extra bases hits generally travel by air.

The point of bringing up those issues isn’t to invoke a degree of pessimism about De La Cruz. It’s to show where he has room to improve. Imagine the damage if he could bring that ground-ball rate down to league average (42.5%). Hey, he’s a rookie, with one month of Major League experience and opponents pitching around him. 

De La Cruz’s ground-ball and strikeout rates take a toll on that final column. In most cases, when there’s a gap between the wRC+ and xwRC+ numbers, players move toward the latter. Don’t count on that in this case. Let him get consistent.

Noteworthy: Baseball-Reference has a line on their player pages that shows what a player’s stats would be if extrapolated over 162 games. For Elly? Are you sitting down? 223 hits. 50 doubles. 11 triples. 22 home runs. 156 runs scored (!). 89 stolen bases. 

Concerns: Already mentioned. Too many ground balls. Too many strikeouts. He’s been lucky on BABIP (.444) so far, although with his speed, expect a BABIP way above average. Maybe in the .380 range.

Luke Maile (32) – Abbott Whisperer

Luke Maile has been exactly what the Reds expected when they signed the veteran catcher to a $1.2 million deal for 2023. His offense has been below average but not tragic. He’s hit three long balls. But Maile was brought on for his defense and game calling. He has been behind the plate for all seven of Andrew Abbott’s starts. Otherwise he’s caught Brandon Williamson and Luke Weaver. Earlier in the season he caught several of Hunter Greene’s games. Maile has thrown out 10 runners attempting to steal. 

Maile has hit the ball about as expected by the experts. At 32 he’s showing some age decline and he’s been a little unlucky. If Maile can maintain the xwRC+ around 87 along with the strong defense, he’ll be a terrific second catcher. Release Casali and give his playing time to Maile.

Curt Casali (34) – Catch Cold

The Reds signed Curt Casali to a $3.25 million free agent contract. It’s Casali’s second stint with the Reds, having been part of the 2018-2020 teams as the bat-first catcher playing behind Tucker Barnhart. In those three seasons with the Reds, Casali hit well, averaging 104 wRC+ in nearly 500 plate appearances, including 18 home runs. Casali wasn’t considered poor behind the plate; his defensive metrics were mixed. With good reason, Reds fans have fond memories of the backup catcher those earlier years.

The 2023 Curt Casali is a different player. Today he’s regarded as a game-caller-first guy. His offense has deteriorated to a tragic level. In 93 plate appearances, Casali has two extra-base hits, both doubles. His batting average is .169 and his expected batting average offers only a tiny bit of salve at .198. He began the year catching Nick Lodolo and moved to Hunter Greene and Graham Ashcraft when Lodolo went out.

As the Reds return to Tyler Stephenson as a catcher and Luke Maile proving strong behind and passable batting, it’s hard to see Casali not being the odd-man-out when the front office gives in on its stubborn refusal to abandon the three-catcher plan. Maile can provide the veteran, game-calling experience if that’s a quality the Reds value.

Father Time and all that. Casali has fallen faster than expected. He’s a significant liability at the plate. When the front office gives in to the clear logic of the situation and cuts one of the catchers, it’s becoming clearer Curt Casali should be the one to go. 

Joey Votto (39) – Still Bangin’ After All These Years

It seems like he’s always been here. Yet, Joey Votto has played only 17 games for the 2023 Reds. The damage done to opponents in that short time has been profound. In addition to game-winning hits, Votto already has seven home runs — every one important at the time.

It was hard to know what to expect from Joey Votto. On the one hand, he’s a future Hall of Famer; one of the best, if not the best, Reds hitter ever. As recent as 2021, Votto had a tremendous season (139 wRC+). His poor performance in 2022 may have been due to a shoulder injury, not a decline phase. The lefty-nemesis shift is gone. We’ve learned never count out Joey Votto.

Then again, Votto turns 40 in September. He’s coming off two major shoulder procedures. Shoulder surgery is known to screw around with a hitter’s timing, maybe for months. Ask Ryan Ludwick.

On June 19, the day of his activation, you’ll find advice to pay attention to Votto’s early exit velocity (EV) if you wanted a hint of how he will do. Two years ago, when Votto belted 36 home runs, his EV was in the 93rd percentile. His 2023 EV is still fluctuating like an EKG, but as of now is in the top 75 percentile of MLB. That’s after missing the first two-and-a-half months of the season and overcoming those two surgeries on his 39-year-old shoulder.

Joey Votto’s 2023 is likely to be full of ups and downs. As of mid-July, he seems inspired by the surging young team around him and settling into his role as mentor and kids-let-me-show-you masher. Joey Votto is franchise royalty and we should savor every minute he’s playing in a Reds uniform.

Legend worship and small samples aside, Votto is hitting the ball with power and that’s reflected in the 119 in the right column. But even Joey Votto can’t keep up a 70-home run pace. Right? I’m sure of it.

Kinda sure.

Noteworthy: Fun with small samples sizes: Through 16 games, Votto had 7 home runs, 18 RBI and generated 0.6 WAR (both FG and B-R). While the math is simple, extrapolate those to a full 160-game season (multiply by 10). Yowza.

Concerns: Injury could strike any time. Peak Joey Votto requires perfect health. Votto’s 33% strikeout rate is a career high, 10% higher than 2021. His line-drive rate is just 10% which is horrible. Votto’s swinging-strike rate, which had been around 7% for a decade, has jumped the past three seasons and is now at 16%. League average is 11%.

Fare Thee Well

Four other players have had at least 50 plate appearances for the 2023 Reds.

Wil Myers (32), who the Reds signed as a free agent for $7.5 million, played in 37 games and took 141 PA. The veteran Myers never got going (42 wRC+) and was released on June 23. Myers has been a free agent since.

Jose Barrero (25) began the season as the Reds starting shortstop although his placeholder status was understood, at least until the leading wave of a prospects flood hit GABP. Barrero played in 46 games, including 19 in centerfield. His bat showed signs of improvement from a dreadful 2022 season, but Barrero was still hitting well below average (64 wRC+). The Reds optioned him to Triple-A on June 16 where he’s played mostly at shortstop (78 wRC+).

Outfielder Henry Ramos (31) was signed as a free agent out of the Korean league. He played in 18 games for the Reds between late-April and mid-May (84 wRC+). Ramos suffered a hip injury and was sent to the IL. After his rehab was finished, the club optioned him back to Triple-A (141 wRC+). Ramos was DFA’d Saturday.

Infielder Jason Vosler broke camp with the Reds and provided early season heroics before inevitable struggle (41 wRC+). Vosler played mostly first base and some third. The Reds DFA’d him on April 24. Three days later Vosler had cleared waivers and was assigned to Louisville, where he’s played since (93 wRC+).

Check out our other first-half reviews:

• Starting Rotation
• Bullpen

Photos: Reds Facebook